Independent external validation of nomograms for predicting risk of low-trauma fracture and hip fracture

Background

A set of nomograms based on the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study predicts the five- and ten-year absolute risk of fracture using age, bone mineral density and history of falls and low-trauma fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of these nomograms among participants in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study.

Methods

We included participants aged 55–95 years for whom bone mineral density measurement data and at least one year of follow-up data were available. Self-reported incident fractures were identified by yearly postal questionnaire or interview (years 3, 5 and 10). We included low-trauma fractures before year 10, except those of the skull, face, hands, ankles and feet. We used a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Among 4152 women, there were 583 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.6 years. Among 1606 men, there were 116 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.3 years. Increasing age, lower bone mineral density, prior fracture and prior falls were associated with increased risk of fracture. For low-trauma fractures, the concordance between predicted risk and fracture events (Harrell C) was 0.69 among women and 0.70 among men. For hip fractures, the concordance was 0.80 among women and 0.85 among men. The observed fracture risk was similar to the predicted risk in all quintiles of risk except the highest quintile of women, where it was lower. The net reclassification index (19.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.3% to 32.2%), favours the Dubbo nomogram over the current Canadian guidelines for men.

Interpretation

The published nomograms provide good fracture-risk discrimination in a representative sample of the Canadian population.Current recommendations for the treatment of osteoporosis are in transition. The T-score-based definition of osteoporosis and osteopenia by the expert committee of the World Health Organization on bone mineral density has been used in many guidelines to set intervention thresholds for treatment. However, studies have consistently reported that the highest number of fractures in a given population occurs in those with osteopenic or normal bone mineral density.^1,2 In fact, the National Osteoporosis Foundation has singled out people with osteopenic bone mineral density as a population in which assessment for fracture risk is merited.³Nevertheless, appropriate prevention and treatment strategies for such people are uncertain.⁴ Recent developments include the assessment of absolute fracture risk based on bone mineral density and other risk factors. Current Canadian methodology determines categorical risk based on age, sex, T-score, fracture history and glucocorticoid use.⁵ These criteria were derived from Swedish data, but have been assessed and validated in a cohort of Manitoba women.⁶ Newer nomograms based on the Australian cohort of the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study⁷ are now available for the calculation of low-trauma hip fracture⁸ and any fracture.⁹ These nomograms provide continuous estimates for five- and 10-year absolute fracture risk in both men and women (available at http://fractureriskcalculator.com). The use of factors in addition to bone mineral density may provide a better assessment of fracture risk for people who are near the T-score thresholds and facilitate decisions regarding therapeutic intervention.A key step in the development of any prediction model is the assessment of its validity.¹⁰ The aim of our study was to assess the performance of the Australian-derived nomogram among community-dwelling Canadians aged 55–95 years old. The first part of this assessment was a comparison of the nomogram model using the same variables, but using data from a Canadian population — participants in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (www.camos.org). The second part involved computing the calibration and discrimination of the nomogram in a Canadian cohort. The final part was comparison of the new assessments with the existing Canadian risk classification system.     

广西蕨类植物孢子形态的研究Ⅲ.凤尾蕨科

利用光学显微镜和扫描电子显微镜对广西产凤尾蕨科及其近缘科蕨科、姬蕨科和碗蕨科5属9种植物的孢子形态进行了观察研究,详细描述了9种植物孢子的形态及表面纹饰特征.井栏边草、刺齿凤尾蕨、隆林凤尾蕨、剑叶凤尾蕨、林下凤尾蕨、蕨和碗蕨植物的孢子为三裂缝,辐射对称;极面观为钝三角形,赤道面观为半圆形或超半圆形;栗蕨和姬蕨植物孢子为...     

并行采集技术在老年人肝脏MR检查中的应用价值

目的探讨并行采集PAT技术（Parallel acquisition technique）对改善老年人肝脏磁共振扫描中出现的运动伪影的应用价值。方法对63例常规肝脏MRI检查出现呼吸运动伪影的老年患者（其中TrueFisp序列未出现明显伪影）,行iPAT技术扫描（TrueFisp冠状位、T1 Flash轴位）,对比常规序列扫描并评价iPAT技术对肝脏呼吸运动伪影消除的作用。三位磁共振专家对所得两组图像质量进行独立观察及评价,并进行对比分析。结果常规序列磁共振扫描63例肝脏呼吸运动伪影,其中Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ和Ⅳ分别为0、15、33和15例,Ⅲ级以上影响诊断的病例共48例,占76%。采用iPAT技术扫描后,Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ和Ⅳ分别为53、5、3和2例,Ⅲ级以下符合诊断要求的病例共58例,占92.1%,两者比较有显著差异（P〈0.05）。结论 iPAT技术可以明显缩短扫描的时间,在克服常规肝脏扫描中产生的呼吸运动伪影有明显的作用,可广泛应用于老年人肝脏常规检查产生的呼吸运动伪影校正中。     

Comparison of Influenza Outbreaks in the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russia Induced by 2009 Yearly New Variant of А(H1N1) Influenza Virus

The aim of the work is the comparison of the epidemiology of influenza and acute respiratory virus infections (ARVI) in the Republic of Kazakhstan with the corresponding influenza epidemic in Russia induced by influenza pandemic virus A/California/07/2009 in 2009.Data on influenza and ARVI from the Republic of Kazakhstan and Federal Center of influenza was collected and investigated over the course of several weeks from hospitalized patients with the same diagnosis among all population and in age groups on ...     

The relation between cartilage biomarkers (C2C,C1,2C,CS846, and CPII) and the long-term outcome of rheumatoid arthritis patients within the CAMERA trial

Introduction  

The aim of this study was to investigate whether serum biomarker levels of C2C, C1,2C, CS846, and CPII can predict the long-term course of disease activity and radiographic progression early in the disease course of rheumatoid arthritis (RA).     

The architecture of gene regulatory variation across multiple human tissues: the MuTHER study

While there have been studies exploring regulatory variation in one or more tissues, the complexity of tissue-specificity in multiple primary tissues is not yet well understood. We explore in depth the role of cis-regulatory variation in three human tissues: lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCL), skin, and fat. The samples (156 LCL, 160 skin, 166 fat) were derived simultaneously from a subset of well-phenotyped healthy female twins of the MuTHER resource. We discover an abundance of cis-eQTLs in each tissue similar to previous estimates (858 or 4.7% of genes). In addition, we apply factor analysis (FA) to remove effects of latent variables, thus more than doubling the number of our discoveries (1,822 eQTL genes). The unique study design (Matched Co-Twin Analysis--MCTA) permits immediate replication of eQTLs using co-twins (93%-98%) and validation of the considerable gain in eQTL discovery after FA correction. We highlight the challenges of comparing eQTLs between tissues. After verifying previous significance threshold-based estimates of tissue-specificity, we show their limitations given their dependency on statistical power. We propose that continuous estimates of the proportion of tissue-shared signals and direct comparison of the magnitude of effect on the fold change in expression are essential properties that jointly provide a biologically realistic view of tissue-specificity. Under this framework we demonstrate that 30% of eQTLs are shared among the three tissues studied, while another 29% appear exclusively tissue-specific. However, even among the shared eQTLs, a substantial proportion (10%-20%) have significant differences in the magnitude of fold change between genotypic classes across tissues. Our results underline the need to account for the complexity of eQTL tissue-specificity in an effort to assess consequences of such variants for complex traits.     

A two-stage meta-analysis identifies several new loci for Parkinson's disease

A previous genome-wide association (GWA) meta-analysis of 12,386 PD cases and 21,026 controls conducted by the International Parkinson''s Disease Genomics Consortium (IPDGC) discovered or confirmed 11 Parkinson''s disease (PD) loci. This first analysis of the two-stage IPDGC study focused on the set of loci that passed genome-wide significance in the first stage GWA scan. However, the second stage genotyping array, the ImmunoChip, included a larger set of 1,920 SNPs selected on the basis of the GWA analysis. Here, we analyzed this set of 1,920 SNPs, and we identified five additional PD risk loci (combined p<5×10⁻¹⁰, PARK16/1q32, STX1B/16p11, FGF20/8p22, STBD1/4q21, and GPNMB/7p15). Two of these five loci have been suggested by previous association studies (PARK16/1q32, FGF20/8p22), and this study provides further support for these findings. Using a dataset of post-mortem brain samples assayed for gene expression (n = 399) and methylation (n = 292), we identified methylation and expression changes associated with PD risk variants in PARK16/1q32, GPNMB/7p15, and STX1B/16p11 loci, hence suggesting potential molecular mechanisms and candidate genes at these risk loci.     

Multiple common susceptibility variants near BMP pathway loci GREM1, BMP4, and BMP2 explain part of the missing heritability of colorectal cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 14 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) that are associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), and several of these tagSNPs are near bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) pathway loci. The penalty of multiple testing implicit in GWAS increases the attraction of complementary approaches for disease gene discovery, including candidate gene- or pathway-based analyses. The strongest candidate loci for additional predisposition SNPs are arguably those already known both to have functional relevance and to be involved in disease risk. To investigate this proposition, we searched for novel CRC susceptibility variants close to the BMP pathway genes GREM1 (15q13.3), BMP4 (14q22.2), and BMP2 (20p12.3) using sample sets totalling 24,910 CRC cases and 26,275 controls. We identified new, independent CRC predisposition SNPs close to BMP4 (rs1957636, P = 3.93×10(-10)) and BMP2 (rs4813802, P = 4.65×10(-11)). Near GREM1, we found using fine-mapping that the previously-identified association between tagSNP rs4779584 and CRC actually resulted from two independent signals represented by rs16969681 (P = 5.33×10(-8)) and rs11632715 (P = 2.30×10(-10)). As low-penetrance predisposition variants become harder to identify-owing to small effect sizes and/or low risk allele frequencies-approaches based on informed candidate gene selection may become increasingly attractive. Our data emphasise that genetic fine-mapping studies can deconvolute associations that have arisen owing to independent correlation of a tagSNP with more than one functional SNP, thus explaining some of the apparently missing heritability of common diseases.     

Neonatal mortality levels for 193 countries in 2009 with trends since 1990: a systematic analysis of progress, projections, and priorities

Background

Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990–2009 with forecasts into the future.

Methods and Findings

We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life—compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990—and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa''s NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9).

Conclusions

Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary