A predictive model for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalisation of premature infants born at 33–35 weeks of gestational age,based on data from the Spanish FLIP study

Background

The aim of this study, conducted in Europe, was to develop a validated risk factor based model to predict RSV-related hospitalisation in premature infants born 33–35 weeks'' gestational age (GA).

Methods

The predictive model was developed using risk factors captured in the Spanish FLIP dataset, a case-control study of 183 premature infants born between 33–35 weeks'' GA who were hospitalised with RSV, and 371 age-matched controls. The model was validated internally by 100-fold bootstrapping. Discriminant function analysis was used to analyse combinations of risk factors to predict RSV hospitalisation. Successive models were chosen that had the highest probability for discriminating between hospitalised and non-hospitalised infants. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted.

Results

An initial 15 variable model was produced with a discriminant function of 72% and an area under the ROC curve of 0.795. A step-wise reduction exercise, alongside recalculations of some variables, produced a final model consisting of 7 variables: birth ± 10 weeks of start of season, birth weight, breast feeding for ≤ 2 months, siblings ≥ 2 years, family members with atopy, family members with wheeze, and gender. The discrimination of this model was 71% and the area under the ROC curve was 0.791. At the 0.75 sensitivity intercept, the false positive fraction was 0.33. The 100-fold bootstrapping resulted in a mean discriminant function of 72% (standard deviation: 2.18) and a median area under the ROC curve of 0.785 (range: 0.768–0.790), indicating a good internal validation. The calculated NNT for intervention to treat all at risk patients with a 75% level of protection was 11.7 (95% confidence interval: 9.5–13.6).

Conclusion

A robust model based on seven risk factors was developed, which is able to predict which premature infants born between 33–35 weeks'' GA are at highest risk of hospitalisation from RSV. The model could be used to optimise prophylaxis with palivizumab across Europe.     

nGASP – the nematode genome annotation assessment project

Background  

While the C. elegans genome is extensively annotated, relatively little information is available for other Caenorhabditis species. The nematode genome annotation assessment project (nGASP) was launched to objectively assess the accuracy of protein-coding gene prediction software in C. elegans, and to apply this knowledge to the annotation of the genomes of four additional Caenorhabditis species and other nematodes. Seventeen groups worldwide participated in nGASP, and submitted 47 prediction sets across 10 Mb of the C. elegans genome. Predictions were compared to reference gene sets consisting of confirmed or manually curated gene models from WormBase.     

Affordable ART and the Third World: difficulties to overcome

⁶ Present address: 80 Grove Road, Millhouses, Sheffield S7 2GZ, UK⁷ Correspondence address. Tel: +44 (0) 114 262 0718; E-mail: I.d.cooke{at}sheffield.ac.uk A coherent strategy is required, donors to cover the costs ofa business plan and personnel to provide advice and trainingand the country must be chosen. An urban environment is preferredwith a local link, ideally a University Department with an existingART programme and a willingness to be involved. Premises, aclinician and an embryologist must be identified, appropriatetraining arranged and excellent communication systems put inplace. Apart from arranging equipment and servicing supplies,management systems and transparent data collection processesmust be established. The protocol and local variations haveto be agreed. The clinic needs to be related to the local healthsystem, referral patterns must be created and screening processesset up to develop a waiting list of suitable patients. The natureof prior treatments must be defined. At some point, there needsto be a visit of an agreed scientific adviser with or withouta donor representative. The number of patients treated in aninitial cohort and review details should be determined. A longerterm programme, the creation of a local professional networkand clear relations with the state health system need to beexplored. Any of these stages may constitute difficulties tobe overcome.     

Leg-length inequality is not associated with greater trochanteric pain syndrome

Introduction  

Greater trochanteric pain syndrome (GTPS) is a common condition, the pathogenesis of which is incompletely understood. Although leg-length inequality has been suggested as a potential risk factor for GTPS, this widely held assumption has not been tested.     

Cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: results from the QUEST-RA study

Introduction

We analyzed the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and its association with traditional CV risk factors, clinical features of RA, and the use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in a multinational cross-sectional cohort of nonselected consecutive outpatients with RA (The Questionnaires in Standard Monitoring of Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis Program, or QUEST-RA) who were receiving regular clinical care.

Methods

The study involved a clinical assessment by a rheumatologist and a self-report questionnaire by patients. The clinical assessment included a review of clinical features of RA and exposure to DMARDs over the course of RA. Comorbidities were recorded; CV morbidity included myocardial infarction, angina, coronary disease, coronary bypass surgery, and stroke. Traditional risk factors recorded were hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, physical inactivity, and body mass index. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for CV morbidity were calculated using Cox proportional hazard regression models.

Results

Between January 2005 and October 2006, the QUEST-RA project included 4,363 patients from 48 sites in 15 countries; 78% were female, more than 90% were Caucasian, and the mean age was 57 years. The prevalence for lifetime CV events in the entire sample was 3.2% for myocardial infarction, 1.9% for stroke, and 9.3% for any CV event. The prevalence for CV risk factors was 32% for hypertension, 14% for hyperlipidemia, 8% for diabetes, 43% for ever-smoking, 73% for physical inactivity, and 18% for obesity. Traditional risk factors except obesity and physical inactivity were significantly associated with CV morbidity. There was an association between any CV event and age and male gender and between extra-articular disease and myocardial infarction. Prolonged exposure to methotrexate (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.81 to 0.89), leflunomide (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.43 to 0.79), sulfasalazine (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.98), glucocorticoids (HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.92 to 0.98), and biologic agents (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.21 to 0.81; P < 0.05) was associated with a reduction of the risk of CV morbidity; analyses were adjusted for traditional risk factors and countries.

Conclusion

In conclusion, prolonged use of treatments such as methotrexate, sulfasalazine, leflunomide, glucocorticoids, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha blockers appears to be associated with a reduced risk of CV disease. In addition to traditional risk factors, extra-articular disease was associated with the occurrence of myocardial infarction in patients with RA.     

Birth size and breast cancer risk: re-analysis of individual participant data from 32 studies

Background

Birth size, perhaps a proxy for prenatal environment, might be a correlate of subsequent breast cancer risk, but findings from epidemiological studies have been inconsistent. We re-analysed individual participant data from published and unpublished studies to obtain more precise estimates of the magnitude and shape of the birth size–breast cancer association.

Methods and Findings

Studies were identified through computer-assisted and manual searches, and personal communication with investigators. Individual participant data from 32 studies, comprising 22,058 breast cancer cases, were obtained. Random effect models were used, if appropriate, to combine study-specific estimates of effect. Birth weight was positively associated with breast cancer risk in studies based on birth records (pooled relative risk [RR] per one standard deviation [SD] [= 0.5 kg] increment in birth weight: 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.09) and parental recall when the participants were children (1.02; 95% CI 0.99–1.05), but not in those based on adult self-reports, or maternal recall during the woman''s adulthood (0.98; 95% CI 0.95–1.01) (p for heterogeneity between data sources = 0.003). Relative to women who weighed 3.000–3.499 kg, the risk was 0.96 (CI 0.80–1.16) in those who weighed < 2.500 kg, and 1.12 (95% CI 1.00–1.25) in those who weighed ≥ 4.000 kg (p for linear trend = 0.001) in birth record data. Birth length and head circumference from birth records were also positively associated with breast cancer risk (pooled RR per one SD increment: 1.06 [95% CI 1.03–1.10] and 1.09 [95% CI 1.03–1.15], respectively). Simultaneous adjustment for these three birth size variables showed that length was the strongest independent predictor of risk. The birth size effects did not appear to be confounded or mediated by established breast cancer risk factors and were not modified by age or menopausal status. The cumulative incidence of breast cancer per 100 women by age 80 y in the study populations was estimated to be 10.0, 10.0, 10.4, and 11.5 in those who were, respectively, in the bottom, second, third, and top fourths of the birth length distribution.

Conclusions

This pooled analysis of individual participant data is consistent with birth size, and in particular birth length, being an independent correlate of breast cancer risk in adulthood.     

Cardiovascular risk in 26,008 European overweight children as established by a multicenter database

Objective: Although the obesity epidemic is progressing in European children too, there is no consensus on the population‐specific prevalence of comorbidities or efficient diagnostic strategies. Therefore, weight‐related risk factors, their interrelationship, and association with biological parameters were assessed in a large group of overweight (OW) children, documented by an electronic database. Methods and Procedures: Data of 26,008 children (age 12.6 ± 2.9 years, 56% females) presented for OW (BMI > 90th percentile) or obesity (>97th percentile) in 98 specialized centers were evaluated using a simple software (Adipositas Patienten Verlaufsbeobachtung (APV)) for standardized longitudinal documentation. After local anonymization, data were transmitted for central analysis including multiple logistic regression. Results: A total of 5.9% of the children were normal weight, 41% obese (OB), and 37% extremely OB (>99.5th percentile, XXL; 41% of the girls). In 50%, at least one risk factor and in 11% a cluster of two were found, comprising increased blood pressure (BP): 35.4%, dyslipidemia: 32% (total cholesterol: 14.1%, low‐density lipoprotein (LDL)‐cholesterol: 15.8%, high‐density lipoprotein (HDL)‐cholesterol: 11.1%, triglycerides: 14.3%), impaired glucose tolerance (IGtT): 6.5% and suspicion of diabetes: 0.7%. The degree of OW was inversely associated with HDL‐cholesterol and directly with clustered risk factors, impaired glucose metabolism, increased BP and triglycerides (odds ratios (ORs) XXL vs. normal = 6.15, >10, 4.3, 3.0 and 2.5, respectively), but not with LDL‐cholesterol. Discussion: In a very large cohort of young Europeans risk factors for cardiovascular (CV) diseases are frequently found, related to the degree of OW and tend to cluster, thus a comprehensive screening is justified in all OW or OB children. Electronic patient documentation is feasible in a large obesity care network.     

Safety and efficacy of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding in the elderly

Objective: Bariatric surgery is not usually recommended in the elderly. The aim of this study is to evaluate the safety and efficacy of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) in older patients registered in the database of the Italian Group for Lap‐Band Gruppo Italiano Lap‐Band (GILB). Methods and Procedures: GILB is a centralized database which collects operative and follow‐up data from 26 Italian surgical centers who utilize the Lap‐Band System as a restrictive procedure. Patients ≥60 years were selected from the database of the GILB and analyzed according to co‐morbidities, conversion, peri‐operative complications, and weight loss. Results: Of 5,290 patients, 216 (4.1%; 184F/32M) were ≥60 years old at surgery (mean age 64.1 ± 4.0 years; range 60–83). Baseline BMI was similar in both sets of patients i.e., ≥60 and <60 years of age (44.2 ± 7.6 kg/m² vs. 44.9 ± 7.4 kg/m²). Patients ≥60 years of age were more frequently affected by co‐morbidities than patients <60 years of age. Two cases of operative mortality were observed in patients <60 years old (0.04%) and one in patients ≥60 years old (0.46%). The proportion of patients requiring revision surgery was comparable as well. Weight loss was significantly lower in elderly patients. Despite their lower weight loss, patients ≥60 years of age experienced a significant improvement of obesity‐related co‐morbidities (they showed improvement 1 year after surgery in 100% of cases of diabetes or sleep apnoea, 67.1% of cases of hypertension, and 34.9% of cases of osteoarthritis). Discussion: LAGB may be performed safely in patients ≥60 years old. Weight loss in older patients seems unsatisfactory if compared to younger subjects. However, the majority of elderly patients show an improvement in obesity‐related co‐morbidities.