Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction

Certain general facets of biotic response to climate change, such as shifts in phenology and geographic distribution, are well characterized; however, it is not clear whether the observed similarity of responses across taxa will extend to variation in other population‐level processes. We examined population response to climatic variation using long‐term incidence data (collected over 42 years) encompassing 149 butterfly species and considerable habitat diversity (10 sites along an elevational gradient from sea level to over 2,700 m in California). Population responses were characterized by extreme heterogeneity that was not attributable to differences in species composition among sites. These results indicate that habitat heterogeneity might be a buffer against climate change and highlight important questions about mechanisms maintaining interpopulation differences in responses to weather. Despite overall heterogeneity of response, population dynamics were accurately predicted by our model for many species at each site. However, the overall correlation between observed and predicted incidence in a cross validation analysis was moderate (Pearson's r = 0.23, SE 0.01), and 97% of observed data fell within the predicted 95% credible intervals. Prediction was most successful for more abundant species as well as for sites with lower annual turnover. Population‐level heterogeneity in response to climate variation and the limits of our predictive power highlight the challenges for a future of increasing climatic variability.     

A hierarchical bayesian approach to ecological count data: a flexible tool for ecologists

Many ecological studies use the analysis of count data to arrive at biologically meaningful inferences. Here, we introduce a hierarchical bayesian approach to count data. This approach has the advantage over traditional approaches in that it directly estimates the parameters of interest at both the individual-level and population-level, appropriately models uncertainty, and allows for comparisons among models, including those that exceed the complexity of many traditional approaches, such as ANOVA or non-parametric analogs. As an example, we apply this method to oviposition preference data for butterflies in the genus Lycaeides. Using this method, we estimate the parameters that describe preference for each population, compare the preference hierarchies among populations, and explore various models that group populations that share the same preference hierarchy.     

Unexpected ancestry of Populus seedlings from a hybrid zone implies a large role for postzygotic selection in the maintenance of species

In the context of potential interspecific gene flow, the integrity of species will be maintained by reproductive barriers that reduce genetic exchange, including traits associated with prezygotic isolation or poor performance of hybrids. Hybrid zones can be used to study the importance of different reproductive barriers, particularly when both parental species and hybrids occur in close spatial proximity. We investigated the importance of barriers to gene flow that act early vs. late in the life cycle of European Populus by quantifying the prevalence of homospecific and hybrid matings within a mosaic hybrid zone. We obtained genotypic data for 11 976 loci from progeny and their maternal parents and constructed a Bayesian model to estimate individual admixture proportions and hybrid classes for sampled trees and for the unsampled pollen parent. Matings that included one or two hybrid parents were common, resulting in admixture proportions of progeny that spanned the whole range of potential ancestries between the two parental species. This result contrasts strongly with the distribution of admixture proportions in adult trees, where intermediate hybrids and each of the parental species are separated into three discrete ancestry clusters. The existence of the full range of hybrids in seedlings is consistent with weak reproductive isolation early in the life cycle of Populus. Instead, a considerable amount of selection must take place between the seedling stage and maturity to remove many hybrid seedlings. Our results highlight that high hybridization rates and appreciable hybrid fitness do not necessarily conflict with the maintenance of species integrity.     

Stable isotopes reveal unexpected relationships between fire history and the diet of Spotted Owls

Although the effects of shifting fire regimes on bird populations have been recognized as important to ecology and conservation, the consequences of fire for trophic interactions of avian species – and raptors in particular – remain relatively unknown. Here, we found that within national parks with long‐standing (40+ years) fire management programmes, California Spotted Owls Strix occidentalis occidentalis consumed predominantly Woodrats Neotoma spp. and Pocket Gophers Thomomys spp.; however, in contrast to our predictions, when their territories experienced more extensive and frequent fire, Spotted Owls consumed proportionally more Flying Squirrels Glaucomys oregonensis. We hypothesize this finding could have been driven by either changes to prey abundance following fires (e.g. increases in flying squirrels) or changes to prey availability (e.g. shifts in forest structure or flying squirrel spatial distribution that increased predation upon them by owls). Our work thus demonstrates that fire may have unexpected consequences for the trophic interactions of raptor species and provides valuable information for the conservation of Spotted Owls in fire‐prone forest landscapes.     

More precisely biased: increasing the number of markers is not a silver bullet in genetic bottleneck testing

In response to our review of the use of genetic bottleneck tests in the conservation literature (Peery et al. 2012, Molecular Ecology, 21 , 3403–3418), Hoban et al. (2013, Molecular Ecology, in press) conducted population genetic simulations to show that the statistical power of genetic bottleneck tests can be increased substantially by sampling large numbers of microsatellite loci, as they suggest is now possible in the age of genomics. While we agree with Hoban and co‐workers in principle, sampling large numbers of microsatellite loci can dramatically increase the probability of committing type 1 errors (i.e. detecting a bottleneck in a stable population) when the mutation model is incorrectly assumed. Using conservative values for mutation model parameters can reduce the probability of committing type 1 errors, but doing so can result in significant losses in statistical power. Moreover, we believe that practical limitations associated with developing large numbers of high‐quality microsatellite loci continue to constrain sample sizes, a belief supported by a literature review of recent studies using next generation sequencing methods to develop microsatellite libraries. conclusion, we maintain that researchers employing genetic bottleneck tests should proceed with caution and carefully assess both statistical power and type 1 error rates associated with their study design.     

Temperature-induced alanine oxidation in a psychrotrophic Pseudomonas.

A psychrotrophic pseudomonad isolated from iced fish oxidized alanine at temperatures close to 0 degrees C and grew over the range 0 degrees C-35 degrees C. The rate of oxidation of alanine, measured manometrically, by cells grown at 2 degrees C was lower than that of cells grown at 22 degrees C. However, the consumption of oxygen after heat treatment at 35 degrees for 35 min was reduced considerably by 2 degrees C grown cells. Alanine oxidase activity was tested in an extract from cells grown at 2 degrees C and 22 degrees C with alanine as the sole carbon, nitrogen, and energy source. Cells grown at 2 degrees C produced an alanine oxidase with a temperature optimum of 35 degrees C and pH optimum of 8, which lost about 80% activity by heat treatment at 40 degrees C for 30 min. There was no change in activity after dialysis at pH 7, 8, or 9. Extracts from cells grown at 22 degrees C contained an alanine oxidase system with an optimum temperature of 45 degrees C, a pH optimum above 8, and only about 30% reduction of activity after heat treatment. This enzyme activity was concentrated in the 0.5 M elution fraction from a Sephadex column, and dialysis reduced the activity at pH 7 and 8. Mesophilic enzyme synthesis apparently started around a growth temperature of 10 degrees C. The crude alanine oxidase systems of Pseudomonas aeruginosa derived from cells grown at 13 degrees C and 37 degrees C had a common optimum temperature of 45 degrees C. These data suggest that one mechanism of psychrophilic growth by psychrotrophic bacteria may be the induction of enzymes with low optimum temperatures in response to low temperature conditions.     

Carbon dioxide emission from bamboo culms

Bamboos are one of the fastest growing plants on Earth, and are widely considered to have high ability to capture and sequester atmospheric carbon, and consequently to mitigate climate change. We tested this hypothesis by measuring carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from bamboo culms and comparing them with their biomass sequestration potential. We analysed diurnal effluxes from Bambusa vulgaris culm surface and gas mixtures inside hollow sections of various bamboos using gas chromatography. Corresponding variations in gas pressure inside the bamboo section and culm surface temperature were measured. SEM micrographs of rhizome and bud portions of bamboo culms were also recorded. We found very high CO₂ effluxes from culm surface, nodes and buds of bamboos. Positive gas pressure and very high concentrations of CO₂ were observed inside hollow sections of bamboos. The CO₂ effluxes observed from bamboos were very high compared to their carbon sequestration potential. Our measurements suggest that bamboos are net emitters of CO₂ during their lifespan.     

Structural studies of a neuropeptide precursor protein with an RGD proteolytic site

The snail Lymnaea stagnalis produces a neuropeptide precursor protein that contains seven Arg-Gly-Asp (RGD) sites. These sites are recognized and cleaved by one or more prohormone convertases in the first processing step to yield mature neuropeptides in the secretory pathway. Conformations of two synthetic RGD-containing peptides derived from the L. stagnalis precursor protein were determined by NMR spectroscopy. The peptides were tested in a platelet aggregation assay for RGD activity and were processed in vitro by PC2 and furin. The native peptide with a proline following the RGD site has minimal structure around the RGD region, does not inhibit platelet aggregation, and is properly processed by the enzymes PC2 and furin. A variant of the native fragment with a serine following the RGD sequence has a significant amount of a reverse turn around the RGD region, is a potent inhibitor of platelet aggregation, and is processed with the same specificity as the native fragment. The large conformational differences between the two peptides provide a molecular mechanism for effects of proline residues following the RGD site and suggest that precursor processing is influenced more by flexibility than by the conformation of the processing site.     

Detection of individual ploidy levels with genotyping‐by‐sequencing (GBS) analysis

Ploidy levels sometimes vary among individuals or populations, particularly in plants. When such variation exists, accurate determination of cytotype can inform studies of ecology or trait variation and is required for population genetic analyses. Here, we propose and evaluate a statistical approach for distinguishing low‐level ploidy variants (e.g. diploids, triploids and tetraploids) based on genotyping‐by‐sequencing (GBS) data. The method infers cytotypes based on observed heterozygosity and the ratio of DNA sequences containing different alleles at thousands of heterozygous SNPs (i.e. allelic ratios). Whereas the method does not require prior information on ploidy, a reference set of samples with known ploidy can be included in the analysis if it is available. We explore the power and limitations of this method using simulated data sets and GBS data from natural populations of aspen (Populus tremuloides) known to include both diploid and triploid individuals. The proposed method was able to reliably discriminate among diploids, triploids and tetraploids in simulated data sets, and this was true for different levels of genetic diversity, inbreeding and population structure. Power and accuracy were minimally affected by low coverage (i.e. 2×), but did sometimes suffer when simulated mixtures of diploids, autotetraploids and allotetraploids were analysed. Cytotype assignments based on the proposed method closely matched those from previous microsatellite and flow cytometry data when applied to GBS data from aspen. An R package (gbs2ploidy) implementing the proposed method is available from CRAN.