Causal inference and large-scale expert validation shed light on the drivers of SDM accuracy and variance

Aim

To develop a causal understanding of the drivers of Species distribution model (SDM) performance.

Location

United Kingdom (UK).

Methods

We measured the accuracy and variance of SDMs fitted for 518 species of invertebrate and plant in the UK. Our measure of variance reflects variation among replicate model fits, and taxon experts assessed model accuracy. Using directed acyclic graphs, we developed a causal model depicting plausible effects of explanatory variables (e.g. species' prevalence, sample size) on SDM accuracy and variance and quantified those effects using a multilevel piecewise path model.

Results

According to our model, sample size and niche completeness (proportion of a species' niche covered by sampling) directly affect SDM accuracy and variance. Prevalence and range completeness have indirect effects mediated by sample size. Challenging conventional wisdom, we found that the effect of prevalence on SDM accuracy is positive. This reflects the facts that sample size has a positive effect on accuracy and larger sample sizes are possible for widespread species. It is possible, however, that the omission of an unobserved confounder biased this effect. Previous studies, which reported negative correlations between prevalence and SDM accuracy, conditioned on sample size.

Main conclusions

Our model explicates the causal basis of previously reported correlations between SDM performance and species/data characteristics. It also suggests that niche completeness has similarly large effects on SDM accuracy and variance as sample size. Analysts should consider niche completeness, or proxies thereof, in addition to sample size when deciding whether modelling is worthwhile.     

Transmitter amino acid levels in rat brain regions after amygdala-kindling or chronic electrode implantation without kindling: Evidence for a pro-kindling effect of prolonged electrode implantation

Kindling is a chronic model of epilepsy characterized by a progressive increase in response to the same regularly applied stimulus. The biological basis of the kindling phenomenon requires to be determined, but several studies indicate that alterations in amino acidergic neurotransmission may be involved. In the present experiments, levels of glutamate, aspartate, GABA, glycine, and taurine were determined in 12 brain regions by HPLC in 3 groups of animals: (a) a group which was kindled via electrical stimulation of intraamygdala electrodes and was sacrificed 36 days after the last fully kindled seizure for neurochemical determinations; (b) a group of implanted but nonstimulated rats (surgical control group) in which neurochemical measurements were done at the same time after electrode implantation as the kindled group, and (c) a group of non-implanted, naive control rats. Compared to surgical controls, kindling induced a significant reduction of glutamate, GABA, and taurine in the brain stem (pons/medulla), whereas no differences between both groups were found in any of the other regions. However, both electrode-implanted groups differed significantly from non-implanted naive rats in several regions, indicating that electrode-implantation per se induced long-lasting alterations in transmitter amino acids. The most striking difference to naive controls was an increase of glycine levels in several regions in which this amino acid is known to potentiate glutamatergic transmission. In order to examine the functional consequences of prolonged electrode implantation, seizure thresholds were determined in groups of rats with short and prolonged electrode implantation. Data from these experiments indicated that prolonged electrode implantation per se induces pro-kindling effects, i.e. a dramatic decrease of seizure threshold. The data of this study thus demonstrate that the choice of adequate controls is critical in neurochemical and functional studies on the kindling phenomenon.     

Mugharet el'Aliya: Affinities of an enigmatic north African Aterian maxillary fragment

Objectives

This study uses a virtual framework to examine the left maxillary fragment of the juvenile fossil from Mugharet el'Aliya, Morocco, found in association with an Aterian lithic industry. Previously, this fossil had been ascribed to modern humans or the Neanderthal lineage based on its “archaic”/“Neanderthal-like” features and apparent large size. Here, we conducted a novel 3D shape comparative analysis of the maxillary fragment to clarify its taxonomic affinities with regard to its size and ontogeny.

Materials and Methods

Eighty Computed Tomography and surface scans representing ontogenetic samples of Homo sapiens and Homo neanderthalensis were used to capture species-specific differences. The toolkit of geometric morphometrics in combination with surface registration and an elastic iterative closest point algorithm were used to create a dataset of meshes with an identical number of corresponding vertices for the maxillae. Multivariate statistics were applied to Procrustes superimposed coordinates derived from the vertices of this dataset.

Results

Our analysis showed affinities of the Mugharet el'Aliya individual with our H. sapiens sample, especially with a subadult individual from Qafzeh. No size-independent affinities with Neanderthals of comparable dental age could be identified.

Discussion

Our results add to the evidence connecting fossils from western Asia, especially Qafzeh and Skhul, and the North African Aterian. Furthermore, Mugharet el'Aliya adds to our knowledge of the ontogenetic development of adult morphology that is frequently used to characterize hominin groups, for example, Neanderthals and modern humans.     

Reduction in animal abundance and oxygen availability during and after the end-Triassic mass extinction

The end-Triassic biodiversity crisis was one of the most severe mass extinctions in the history of animal life. However, the extent to which the loss of taxonomic diversity was coupled with a reduction in organismal abundance remains to be quantified. Further, the temporal relationship between organismal abundance and local marine redox conditions is lacking in carbonate sections. To address these questions, we measured skeletal grain abundance in shallow-marine limestones by point counting 293 thin sections from four stratigraphic sections across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary in the Lombardy Basin and Apennine Platform of western Tethys. Skeletal abundance decreased abruptly across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary in all stratigraphic sections. The abundance of skeletal organisms remained low throughout the lower-middle Hettangian strata and began to rebound during the late Hettangian and early Sinemurian. A two-way ANOVA indicates that sample age (p < .01, η² = 0.30) explains more of the variation in skeletal abundance than the depositional environment or paleobathymetry (p < .01, η² = 0.15). Measured I/Ca ratios, a proxy for local shallow-marine redox conditions, show this same pattern with the lowest I/Ca ratios occurring in the early Hettangian. The close correspondence between oceanic water column oxygen levels and skeletal abundance indicates a connection between redox conditions and benthic organismal abundance across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary. These findings indicate that the end-Triassic mass extinction reduced not only the biodiversity but also the carrying capacity for skeletal organisms in early Hettangian ecosystems, adding to evidence that mass extinction of species generally leads to mass rarity among survivors.     

The synthesis and biochemical evaluation of new A1 selective adenosine receptor agonists containing 6-hydrazinopurine moieties

The synthesis and SAR of a series of novel derivatives of N-aminoadenosine is described, along with their in vitro effects in biochemical assays. The rat brain A₁ adenosine receptor binding of these compounds is very dependent upon the purine 2-substituent. The novel agonist, 2-chloro-N-[4-(phenylthio)-1-piperidinyl]adenosine, exhibits a L_i value for A₁ receptor binding of <1 nM.     

A robust approach to estimate relative phytoplankton cell abundances from metagenomes

Phytoplankton account for >45% of global primary production, and have an enormous impact on aquatic food webs and on the entire Earth System. Their members are found among prokaryotes (cyanobacteria) and multiple eukaryotic lineages containing chloroplasts. Genetic surveys of phytoplankton communities generally consist of PCR amplification of bacterial (16S), nuclear (18S) and/or chloroplastic (16S) rRNA marker genes from DNA extracted from environmental samples. However, our appreciation of phytoplankton abundance or biomass is limited by PCR-amplification biases, rRNA gene copy number variations across taxa, and the fact that rRNA genes do not provide insights into metabolic traits such as photosynthesis. Here, we targeted the photosynthetic gene psbO from metagenomes to circumvent these limitations: the method is PCR-free, and the gene is universally and exclusively present in photosynthetic prokaryotes and eukaryotes, mainly in one copy per genome. We applied and validated this new strategy with the size-fractionated marine samples collected by Tara Oceans, and showed improved correlations with flow cytometry and microscopy than when based on rRNA genes. Furthermore, we revealed unexpected features of the ecology of these ecosystems, such as the high abundance of picocyanobacterial aggregates and symbionts in the ocean, and the decrease in relative abundance of phototrophs towards the larger size classes of marine dinoflagellates. To facilitate the incorporation of psbO in molecular-based surveys, we compiled a curated database of >18,000 unique sequences. Overall, psbO appears to be a promising new gene marker for molecular-based evaluations of entire phytoplankton communities.     

Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use

Projection of land use and land-cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and land cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and is incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land-use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, compared with uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling the current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts on agriculture but may not meet conservation goals. Rather than focusing on an area target, a more robust approach may be to carefully select newly protected land to meet well-defined conservation goals while minimizing impacts to agriculture.     

Novel Miscanthus hybrids: Modelling productivity on marginal land in Europe using dynamics of canopy development determined by light interception

New biomass crop hybrids for bioeconomic expansion require yield projections to determine their potential for strategic land use planning in the face of global challenges. Our biomass growth simulation incorporates radiation interception and conversion efficiency. Models often use leaf area to predict interception which is demanding to determine accurately, so instead we use low-cost rapid light interception measurements using a simple laboratory-made line ceptometer and relate the dynamics of canopy closure to thermal time, and to measurements of biomass. We apply the model to project the European biomass potentials of new market-ready hybrids for 2020–2030. Field measurements are easier to collect, the calibration is seasonally dynamic and reduces influence of weather variation between field sites. The model obtained is conservative, being calibrated by crops of varying establishment and varying maturity on less productive (marginal) land. This results in conservative projections of miscanthus hybrids for 2020–2030 based on 10% land use conversion of the least (productive) grassland and arable for farm diversification, which show a European potential of 80.7–89.7 Mt year⁻¹ biomass, with potential for 1.2–1.3 EJ year⁻¹ energy and 36.3–40.3 Mt year⁻¹ carbon capture, with seeded Miscanthus sacchariflorus × sinensis displaying highest yield potential. Simulated biomass projections must be viewed in light of the field measurements on less productive land with high soil water deficits. We are attempting to model the results from an ambitious and novel project combining new hybrids across Europe with agronomy which has not been perfected on less productive sites. Nevertheless, at the time of energy sourcing issues, seed-propagated miscanthus hybrids for the upscaled provision of bioenergy offer an alternative source of renewable energy. If European countries provide incentives for growers to invest, seeded hybrids can improve product availability and biomass yields over the current commercial miscanthus variety.     

Reversible dissociation of the plant golgi apparatus by brefeldin A

Summary— The effects of the drug Brefeldin A, shown to block the translocation of proteins between the endoplasmic reticulum and the Golgi apparatus in animal cells, were studied on different plant cell systems. In suspension culture cells and root tissues, the Golgi aparatus was affected by Brefeldin A treatments resulting in distortion and dissociation of the Golgi stacks, coupled with appearance of numerous vesicles in the cytoplasm. This process was reversible. Therefore, Brefeldin A provides a powerful tool with which to study Golgi dynamics and function in plant as well as in animal cells.