Complete chaos in a simple epidemiological model

A first-order difference equation which constitutes a simple model for a lethal parasite-host interaction is studied. Completing a study initiated by May and Anderson, the dynamics are shown to be completely chaotic.     

How sympatric is speciation in the Howea palms of Lord Howe Island?

The two species of the palm genus Howea (Arecaceae) from Lord Howe Island, a minute volcanic island in the Tasman Sea, are now regarded as one of the most compelling examples of sympatric speciation, although this view is still disputed by some authors. Population genetic and ecological data are necessary to provide a more coherent and comprehensive understanding of this emerging model system. Here, we analyse data on abundance, juvenile recruitment, pollination mode and genetic variation and structure in both species. We find that Howea forsteriana is less abundant than Howea belmoreana . The genetic data based on amplified fragment length polymorphisms markers indicate similar levels of variation in the two species, despite the estimated census population size of H. belmoreana being three times larger than that of H. forsteriana . Genetic structure within species is low although some weak isolation by distance is detectable. Gene flow between species appears to be extremely limited and restricted to early-generation hybrids – only three admixed individuals, classified as F2s or first generation backcrosses to a parental species, were found among sampled palms. We conclude that speciation in Howea was indeed sympatric, although under certain strict definitions it may be called parapatric.     

Response of macrophyte litter decomposition in global blue carbon ecosystems to climate change

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs) are important nature-based solutions for climate change-mitigation. However, current debates question the reliability and contribution of BCEs under future climatic-scenarios. The answer to this question depends on ecosystem processes driving carbon-sequestration and -storage, such as primary production and decomposition, and their future rates. We performed a global meta-analysis on litter decomposition rate constants (k) in BCEs and predicted changes in carbon release from 309 studies. The relationships between k and climatic factors were examined by extracting remote-sensing data on air temperature, sea-surface temperature, and precipitation aligning to the decomposition time of each experiment. We constructed global numerical models of litter decomposition to forecast k and carbon release under different scenarios. The current k averages at 27 ± 3 × 10⁻² day⁻¹ for macroalgae were higher than for seagrasses (1.7 ± 0.2 × 10⁻² day⁻¹), mangroves (1.6 ± 0.1 × 10⁻² day⁻¹) and tidal marshes (5.9 ± 0.5 × 10⁻³ day⁻¹). Macrophyte k increased with both air temperature and precipitation in intertidal BCEs and with sea surface temperature for subtidal seagrasses. Above a temperature threshold for vascular plant litter at ~25°C and ~20°C for macroalgae, k drastically increased with increasing temperature. However, the direct effect of high temperatures on k are obscured by other factors in field experiments compared with laboratory experiments. We defined “fundamental” and “realized” temperature response to explain this effect. Based on relationships for realized temperature response, we predict that proportions of decomposed litter will increase by 0.9%–5% and 4.7%–28.8% by 2100 under low- (2°C) and high-warming conditions (4°C) compared to 2020, respectively. Net litter carbon sinks in BCEs will increase due to higher increase in litter C production than in decomposition by 2100 compared to 2020 under RCP 8.5. We highlight that BCEs will play an increasingly important role in future climate change-mitigation. Our findings can be leveraged for blue carbon accounting under future climate change scenarios.     

Burden of noninfluenza respiratory viral infections in adults admitted to hospital: analysis of a multiyear Canadian surveillance cohort from 2 centres

BACKGROUND:Data on the outcomes of noninfluenza respiratory virus (NIRV) infections among hospitalized adults are lacking. We aimed to study the burden, severity and outcomes of NIRV infections in this population.METHODS:We analyzed pooled patient data from 2 hospital-based respiratory virus surveillance cohorts in 2 regions of Canada during 3 consecutive seasons (2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18; n = 2119). We included patients aged ≥ 18 years who developed influenza-like illness or pneumonia and were hospitalized for management. We included patients confirmed positive for ≥ 1 virus by multiplex polymerase chain reaction assays (respiratory syncytial virus [RSV], human rhinovirus/enterovirus (hRV), human coronavirus (hCoV), metapneumovirus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, influenza viruses). We compared patient characteristics, clinical severity conventional outcomes (e.g., hospital length-of stay, 30-day mortality) and ordinal outcomes (5 levels: discharged, receiving convalescent care, acute ward or intensive care unit [ICU] care and death) for patients with NIRV infections and those with influenza.RESULTS:Among 2119 adults who were admitted to hospital, 1156 patients (54.6%) had NIRV infections (hRV 14.9%, RSV 12.9%, hCoV 8.2%) and 963 patients (45.4%) had influenza (n = 963). Patients with NIRVs were younger (mean 66.4 [standard deviation 20.4] yr), and more commonly had immunocompromising conditions (30.3%) and delay in diagnosis (median 4.0 [interquartile range (IQR) 2.0–7.0] days). Overall, 14.6% (12.4%–19.5%) of NIRV infections were acquired in hospital. Admission to ICU (18.2%, median 6.0 [IQR 3.0–13.0] d), hospital length-of-stay (median 5.0 [IQR 2.0–10.0] d) and 30-day mortality (8.4%; RSV 9.5%, hRV 6.6%, hCoV 9.2%) and the ordinal outcomes were similar for patients with NIRV infection and those with influenza. Age > 60 years, immunocompromised state and hospital-acquired viral infection were associated with worse outcomes. The estimated median cost per acute care admission was $6000 (IQR $2000–$16 000).INTERPRETATION:The burden of NIRV infection is substantial in adults admitted to hospital and associated outcomes may be as severe as for influenza, suggesting a need to prioritize therapeutics and vaccines for at-risk people.

The global burden of lower respiratory tract infections is substantial, leading to many hospital admissions and deaths, especially among young children and older adults.¹ Respiratory viruses are responsible for almost half of such infections in adults that require in-hospital management; previous studies estimate that 28%–62% are caused by noninfluenza respiratory viruses (NIRVs).^2–4 With some geographical and seasonal variations, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human rhinovirus (hRV) and human coronavirus (hCoV) are among the most frequently identified NIRV infections.^1–7 Most infected adults develop mild, self-limiting illnesses, but increasing evidence suggest that NIRVs, either alone or with coinfecting bacteria, can result in severe pneumonia and death.^8,9 For instance, RSV has been shown to cause severe respiratory failure, with fatality rates comparable to or exceeding those observed among adults admitted to hospital with influenza.^10–12 Data on hRV, hCoV and other NIRVs are more limited, owing to the lack of accurate diagnostics and systematic case-finding approaches.^7–9 However, with the increasing availability of multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays that can simultaneously detect influenza and NIRVs, these infections are now readily diagnosed as part of a syndromic approach in patients who present with acute respiratory illnesses.^2–5,13,14 The burden, clinical significance and impacts of NIRVs on the health care system remain inadequately characterized.To address this gap, we analyzed the relative frequencies, patient characteristics, location of acquisition (community or hospital), severity and clinical outcomes of patients with NIRV and influenza infections diagnosed by multiplex PCR in a cohort of adults admitted to hospital in 2 large Canadian health care centres during a 3-year surveillance period. The associated health care resource use was also estimated.     

Adenohypophysial cell-types in the pituitary gland of the soft-shelled turtle,Trionyx sinensis

Summary By using various staining techniques, two acidophilic and three basophilic cell-types have been distinguished in the pars distalis of Trionyx sinensis. Seasonal fluctuations in their cytoplasmic granulation, cell and nuclear size have been compared with seasonal patterns of activity in the gonads, adrenals and thyroid. On the basis of the results, specific functions have been ascribed to each cell-type. Basophils 1 activity closely parallels the seasonal thyroid cycle. Basophils 2 are probably FSH-secreting gonadotropes and their activity correlates with the seasonal cycle of spermatogenesis in the seminiferous tubules. The functional activity of the testicular interstitial cells correlates with the secretory pattern of the basophils 3. That these are LH-secreting cells is also suggested by the epididymidal cycle, which indicates a high level of androgen secretion coincident with the rapid degranulation of these cells, at a time of no spermatogenetic activity. Adrenal activity shows no relationship with the basophils 3 cycle, and chromophobic cells may be the locus of ACTH secretion. Acidophils 2 remain stable throughout the year and are probably somatotropes, but acidophils 1 increase their activity in autumn and are likely to be lactotropes.     

Co-incorporation of A beta 40 and A beta 42 to form mixed pre-fibrillar aggregates.

Senile plaques, the invariable hallmark and likely proximal cause of Alzheimer's disease (AD), are structured depositions of the 40- and 42-residue forms of the A beta peptide. Conversely, diffuse plaques, which are not associated with neurodegeneration, consist mainly of unstructured A beta 42. We have investigated the interaction between A beta 40 and A beta 42 through an assay, which involves labeling both variants with an environment-sensitive fluorophore. We have monitored association of A beta without fibrillar seeds, which allows investigation of molecular species preceding fibrils. Immediately upon mixture, A beta 40 and A beta 42 associate into mixed aggregates, in which the peptides are unstructured and relatively accessible to water. When left to incubate for an extended period, larger, more tightly packed aggregates, which show secondary structure, replace the small, unstructured aggregates formed earlier. Our results show that in vitro the two A beta variants coassemble early in the fibrillogenesis pathway. The ease of formation for mixed and homogeneous aggregates is similar. A change in the local A beta variant ratio can therefore have a significant impact on A beta aggregation; indeed such a change has been reported in some types of familial AD.