Prediction of High Incidence of Dengue in the Philippines

Background

Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines.

Methods

Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data.

Principal Findings

Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F_0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F₃ measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation.

Conclusions

This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity.     

Targeted Metabolomics Reveals a Male Pheromone and Sex-Specific Ascaroside Biosynthesis in Caenorhabditis elegans

In the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans, a class of small molecule signals called ascarosides regulate development, mating, and social behaviors. Ascaroside production has been studied in the predominant sex, the hermaphrodite, but not in males, which account for less than 1% of wild-type worms grown under typical laboratory conditions. Using HPLC-MS-based targeted metabolomics, we show that males also produce ascarosides and that their ascaroside profile differs markedly from that of hermaphrodites. Whereas hermaphrodite ascaroside profiles are dominated by ascr#3, containing an α,β-unsaturated fatty acid, males predominantly produce the corresponding dihydro-derivative ascr#10. This small structural modification profoundly affects signaling properties: hermaphrodites are retained by attomole-amounts of male-produced ascr#10, whereas hermaphrodite-produced ascr#3 repels hermaphrodites and attracts males. Male production of ascr#10 is population density-dependent, indicating sensory regulation of ascaroside biosynthesis. Analysis of gene expression data supports a model in which sex-specific regulation of peroxisomal β-oxidation produces functionally different ascaroside profiles.     

Promotion of Bone Morphogenetic Protein Signaling by Tetraspanins and Glycosphingolipids

Bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) belong to the transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) superfamily of secreted molecules. BMPs play essential roles in multiple developmental and homeostatic processes in metazoans. Malfunction of the BMP pathway can cause a variety of diseases in humans, including cancer, skeletal disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Identification of factors that ensure proper spatiotemporal control of BMP signaling is critical for understanding how this pathway is regulated. We have used a unique and sensitive genetic screen to identify the plasma membrane-localized tetraspanin TSP-21 as a key new factor in the C. elegans BMP-like “Sma/Mab” signaling pathway that controls body size and postembryonic M lineage development. We showed that TSP-21 acts in the signal-receiving cells and genetically functions at the ligand-receptor level. We further showed that TSP-21 can associate with itself and with two additional tetraspanins, TSP-12 and TSP-14, which also promote Sma/Mab signaling. TSP-12 and TSP-14 can also associate with SMA-6, the type I receptor of the Sma/Mab pathway. Finally, we found that glycosphingolipids, major components of the tetraspanin-enriched microdomains, are required for Sma/Mab signaling. Our findings suggest that the tetraspanin-enriched membrane microdomains are important for proper BMP signaling. As tetraspanins have emerged as diagnostic and prognostic markers for tumor progression, and TSP-21, TSP-12 and TSP-14 are all conserved in humans, we speculate that abnormal BMP signaling due to altered expression or function of certain tetraspanins may be a contributing factor to cancer development.     

Prevention and mitigation of acute radiation syndrome in mice by synthetic lipopeptide agonists of Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2)

Bacterial lipoproteins (BLP) induce innate immune responses in mammals by activating heterodimeric receptor complexes containing Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2). TLR2 signaling results in nuclear factor-kappaB (NF-κB)-dependent upregulation of anti-apoptotic factors, anti-oxidants and cytokines, all of which have been implicated in radiation protection. Here we demonstrate that synthetic lipopeptides (sLP) that mimic the structure of naturally occurring mycoplasmal BLP significantly increase mouse survival following lethal total body irradiation (TBI) when administered between 48 hours before and 24 hours after irradiation. The TBI dose ranges against which sLP are effective indicate that sLP primarily impact the hematopoietic (HP) component of acute radiation syndrome. Indeed, sLP treatment accelerated recovery of bone marrow (BM) and spleen cellularity and ameliorated thrombocytopenia of irradiated mice. sLP did not improve survival of irradiated TLR2-knockout mice, confirming that sLP-mediated radioprotection requires TLR2. However, sLP was radioprotective in chimeric mice containing TLR2-null BM on a wild type background, indicating that radioprotection of the HP system by sLP is, at least in part, indirect and initiated in non-BM cells. sLP injection resulted in strong transient induction of multiple cytokines with known roles in hematopoiesis, including granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), keratinocyte chemoattractant (KC) and interleukin-6 (IL-6). sLP-induced cytokines, particularly G-CSF, are likely mediators of the radioprotective/mitigative activity of sLP. This study illustrates the strong potential of LP-based TLR2 agonists for anti-radiation prophylaxis and therapy in defense and medical scenarios.     

A Systematic Review on Health Resilience to Economic Crises

Background

The health effects of recent economic crises differ markedly by population group. The objective of this systematic review is to examine evidence from longitudinal studies on factors influencing resilience for any health outcome or health behaviour among the general population living in countries exposed to financial crises.

Methods

We systematically reviewed studies from six electronic databases (EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science) which used quantitative longitudinal study designs and included: (i) exposure to an economic crisis; (ii) changes in health outcomes/behaviours over time; (iii) statistical tests of associations of health risk and/or protective factors with health outcomes/behaviours. The quality of the selected studies was appraised using the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. PRISMA reporting guidelines were followed.

Results

From 14,584 retrieved records, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies were conducted across 10 countries in Asia, Europe and North America over the past two decades. Ten socio-demographic factors that increased or protected against health risk were identified: gender, age, education, marital status, household size, employment/occupation, income/ financial constraints, personal beliefs, health status, area of residence, and social relations. These studies addressed physical health, mortality, suicide and suicide attempts, mental health, and health behaviours. Women’s mental health appeared more susceptible to crises than men’s. Lower income levels were associated with greater increases in cardiovascular disease, mortality and worse mental health. Employment status was associated with changes in mental health. Associations with age, marital status, and education were less consistent, although higher education was associated with healthier behaviours.

Conclusions

Despite widespread rhetoric about the importance of resilience, there was a dearth of studies which operationalised resilience factors. Future conceptual and empirical research is needed to develop the epidemiology of resilience.     

Succinylated Octopamine Ascarosides and a New Pathway of Biogenic Amine Metabolism in Caenorhabditis elegans

The ascarosides, small-molecule signals derived from combinatorial assembly of primary metabolism-derived building blocks, play a central role in Caenorhabditis elegans biology and regulate many aspects of development and behavior in this model organism as well as in other nematodes. Using HPLC-MS/MS-based targeted metabolomics, we identified novel ascarosides incorporating a side chain derived from succinylation of the neurotransmitter octopamine. These compounds, named osas#2, osas#9, and osas#10, are produced predominantly by L1 larvae, where they serve as part of a dispersal signal, whereas these ascarosides are largely absent from the metabolomes of other life stages. Investigating the biogenesis of these octopamine-derived ascarosides, we found that succinylation represents a previously unrecognized pathway of biogenic amine metabolism. At physiological concentrations, the neurotransmitters serotonin, dopamine, and octopamine are converted to a large extent into the corresponding succinates, in addition to the previously described acetates. Chemically, bimodal deactivation of biogenic amines via acetylation and succinylation parallels posttranslational modification of proteins via acetylation and succinylation of l-lysine. Our results reveal a small-molecule connection between neurotransmitter signaling and interorganismal regulation of behavior and suggest that ascaroside biosynthesis is based in part on co-option of degradative biochemical pathways.     

Inactivation of prions by acidic sodium dodecyl sulfate

Prompted by the discovery that prions become protease-sensitive after exposure to branched polyamine dendrimers in acetic acid (AcOH) (S. Supattapone, H. Wille, L. Uyechi, J. Safar, P. Tremblay, F. C. Szoka, F. E. Cohen, S. B. Prusiner, and M. R. Scott, J. Virol. 75:3453-3461, 2001), we investigated the inactivation of prions by sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) in weak acid. As judged by sensitivity to proteolytic digestion, the disease-causing prion protein (PrPSc) was denatured at room temperature by SDS at pH values of < or =4.5 or > or =10. Exposure of Sc237 prions in Syrian hamster brain homogenates to 1% SDS and 0.5% AcOH at room temperature resulted in a reduction of prion titer by a factor of ca. 10(7); however, all of the bioassay hamsters eventually developed prion disease. When various concentrations of SDS and AcOH were tested, the duration and temperature of exposure acted synergistically to inactivate both hamster Sc237 prions and human sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) prions. The inactivation of prions in brain homogenates and those bound to stainless steel wires was evaluated by using bioassays in transgenic mice. sCJD prions were more than 100,000 times more resistant to inactivation than Sc237 prions, demonstrating that inactivation procedures validated on rodent prions cannot be extrapolated to inactivation of human prions. Some procedures that significantly reduced prion titers in brain homogenates had a limited effect on prions bound to the surface of stainless steel wires. Using acidic SDS combined with autoclaving for 15 min, human sCJD prions bound to stainless steel wires were eliminated. Our findings form the basis for a noncorrosive system that is suitable for inactivating prions on surgical instruments, as well as on other medical and dental equipment.     

Responses of Escherichia coli Bacteria to Two Opposing Chemoattractant Gradients Depend on the Chemoreceptor Ratio

Escherichia coli chemotaxis has long served as a simple model of environmental signal processing, and bacterial responses to single chemical gradients are relatively well understood. Less is known about the chemotactic behavior of E. coli in multiple chemical gradients. In their native environment, cells are often exposed to multiple chemical stimuli. Using a recently developed microfluidic chemotaxis device, we exposed E. coli cells to two opposing but equally potent gradients of major attractants, methyl-aspartate and serine. The responses of E. coli cells demonstrated that chemotactic decisions depended on the ratio of the respective receptor number of Tar/Tsr. In addition, the ratio of Tar to Tsr was found to vary with cells’ growth conditions, whereby it depended on the culture density but not on the growth duration. These results provide biological insights into the decision-making processes of chemotactic bacteria that are subjected to multiple chemical stimuli and demonstrate the importance of the cellular microenvironment in determining phenotypic behavior.In their natural environment, both prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells are exposed to multiple chemical stimuli. It is thus important to learn how cells make a decision when confronted with complex chemical stimuli. Escherichia coli bacteria have long served as a model system for chemotaxis studies due to their known and simple genetic makeup. Signaling in bacterial chemotaxis is comparatively well understood (3, 18, 19). To summarize it briefly, there are five types of chemoreceptors in E. coli, of which Tar and Tsr are the most abundant. The basic functional chemosensing unit is a ternary complex that consists of transmembrane chemoreceptors, a linker molecule, CheW, and a histidine kinase, CheA. Within each functional receptor complex, the receptors are known to function in a cooperative manner (9, 12, 16). Upon the binding of attractant molecules, this sensory complex undergoes a conformational change that suppresses the autophosphorylation activity of CheA. This response is then transmitted to the flagellar motor via a regulator protein, CheY. As a result, the run time of an E. coli bacterium is lengthened when swimming toward a high-chemoattractant-concentration region (4).While the molecular mechanisms governing bacterial chemotaxis in a single gradient have been investigated extensively both in experiments and in theory (see reference 8 and references therein), very little is known about how bacteria behave in the presence of dual chemical gradients (1, 17). Early work by Adler and Tso explored the chemotactic responses of E. coli cells in the presence of both attractant and repellent gradients by using a microcapillary chemotaxis assay (1). Twenty years later, Strauss et al. (17) revisited the problem by using a stop-flow chamber. Both investigations concluded that bacteria sum the chemical signals to provide a coordinated output to control flagellar rotation. However, the molecular mechanisms responsible for this calculation have not yet been explored.In this paper, we investigated the molecular mechanism that underlies the bacterial decision-making processes in two opposing attractant gradients that are sensed by the two most abundant E. coli receptors, Tar and Tsr, respectively. By varying the relative expression levels of Tar and Tsr, we demonstrated that the receptor ratio defines the attractant preference in dual gradients of their ligands. The Tar-to-Tsr ratio itself depends on the cell culture density but not on the duration of growth.     

Determinants of protein function revealed by combinatorial entropy optimization

We use a new algorithm (combinatorial entropy optimization [CEO]) to identify specificity residues and functional subfamilies in sets of proteins related by evolution. Specificity residues are conserved within a subfamily but differ between subfamilies, and they typically encode functional diversity. We obtain good agreement between predicted specificity residues and experimentally known functional residues in protein interfaces. Such predicted functional determinants are useful for interpreting the functional consequences of mutations in natural evolution and disease.