Identification of Aedes albopictus larval index thresholds in the transmission of dengue in Guangzhou,China

Entomological indices have been used to quantitatively express vector density, but the threshold of larval indices of Aedes albopictus in dengue epidemics is still undefined. We conducted a case‐control study to identify the thresholds of Aedes albopictus larval indices in dengue epidemics. Two unit levels of analysis were used: district and street. The discriminative power of the indices was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The association between the entomologic indices and dengue transmission was further explored by a logistic regression model. At the district level, there was no significant difference in the Breteau index (BI) between districts that reported cases and those did not (t=0.164, p>0.05), but the Container index (CI) did show a significant difference (t=2.028, p<0.01). The AUC (Area Under the Curve) of BI, CI, and prediction value were 0.540, 0.630, and 0.533, respectively. Predicting at the street level, the AUC of BI, CI, and prediction values were 0.684, 0.660, and 0.685, respectively, and 0.861, 0.827, and 0.867 for outbreaks. BI=5.1, CI=5.4, or prediction value =0.491were suggested to control the epidemic efficiently with the fewest resources, where BI=4.0, CI=5.1, or PRE =0.483 were suggested to achieve effectiveness.     

Carbon stock and its responses to climate change in Central Asia

Central Asia has a land area of 5.6 × 10⁶ km² and contains 80–90% of the world's temperate deserts. Yet it is one of the least characterized areas in the estimation of the global carbon (C) stock/balance. This study assessed the sizes and spatiotemporal patterns of C pools in Central Asia using both inventory (based on 353 biomass and 284 soil samples) and process‐based modeling approaches. The results showed that the C stock in Central Asia was 31.34–34.16 Pg in the top 1‐m soil with another 10.42–11.43 Pg stored in deep soil (1–3 m) of the temperate deserts. They amounted to 18–24% of the global C stock in deserts and dry shrublands. The C stock was comparable to that of the neighboring regions in Eurasia or major drylands around the world (e.g. Australia). However, 90% of Central Asia C pool was stored in soil, and the fraction was much higher than in other regions. Compared to hot deserts of the world, the temperate deserts in Central Asia had relatively high soil organic carbon density. The C stock in Central Asia is under threat from dramatic climate change. During a decadal drought between 1998 and 2008, which was possibly related to protracted La Niña episodes, the dryland lost approximately 0.46 Pg C from 1979 to 2011. The largest C losses were found in northern Kazakhstan, where annual precipitation declined at a rate of 90 mm decade^?1. The regional C dynamics were mainly determined by changes in the vegetation C pool, and the SOC pool was stable due to the balance between reduced plant‐derived C influx and inhibited respiration.     

Response of wheat growth,grain yield and water use to elevated CO2 under a Free‐Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment and modelling in a semi‐arid environment

The response of wheat crops to elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) was measured and modelled with the Australian Grains Free‐Air CO₂ Enrichment experiment, located at Horsham, Australia. Treatments included CO₂ by water, N and temperature. The location represents a semi‐arid environment with a seasonal VPD of around 0.5 kPa. Over 3 years, the observed mean biomass at anthesis and grain yield ranged from 4200 to 10 200 kg ha^?1 and 1600 to 3900 kg ha^?1, respectively, over various sowing times and irrigation regimes. The mean observed response to daytime eCO₂ (from 365 to 550 μmol mol^?1 CO₂) was relatively consistent for biomass at stem elongation and at anthesis and LAI at anthesis and grain yield with 21%, 23%, 21% and 26%, respectively. Seasonal water use was decreased from 320 to 301 mm (P = 0.10) by eCO₂, increasing water use efficiency for biomass and yield, 36% and 31%, respectively. The performance of six models (APSIM‐Wheat, APSIM‐Nwheat, CAT‐Wheat, CROPSYST, OLEARY‐CONNOR and SALUS) in simulating crop responses to eCO₂ was similar and within or close to the experimental error for accumulated biomass, yield and water use response, despite some variations in early growth and LAI. The primary mechanism of biomass accumulation via radiation use efficiency (RUE) or transpiration efficiency (TE) was not critical to define the overall response to eCO₂. However, under irrigation, the effect of late sowing on response to eCO₂ to biomass accumulation at DC65 was substantial in the observed data (~40%), but the simulated response was smaller, ranging from 17% to 28%. Simulated response from all six models under no water or nitrogen stress showed similar response to eCO₂ under irrigation, but the differences compared to the dryland treatment were small. Further experimental work on the interactive effects of eCO₂, water and temperature is required to resolve these model discrepancies.     

Application of a two‐pool model to soil carbon dynamics under elevated CO2

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations increase plant productivity and affect soil microbial communities, with possible consequences for the turnover rate of soil carbon (C) pools and feedbacks to the atmosphere. In a previous analysis (Van Groenigen et al., 2014), we used experimental data to inform a one‐pool model and showed that elevated CO₂ increases the decomposition rate of soil organic C, negating the storage potential of soil. However, a two‐pool soil model can potentially explain patterns of soil C dynamics without invoking effects of CO₂ on decomposition rates. To address this issue, we refit our data to a two‐pool soil C model. We found that CO₂ enrichment increases decomposition rates of both fast and slow C pools. In addition, elevated CO₂ decreased the carbon use efficiency of soil microbes (CUE), thereby further reducing soil C storage. These findings are consistent with numerous empirical studies and corroborate the results from our previous analysis. To facilitate understanding of C dynamics, we suggest that empirical and theoretical studies incorporate multiple soil C pools with potentially variable decomposition rates.     

Climate change‐associated tree mortality increases without decreasing water availability

Temporal increases of tree mortality have been observed in regions where global warming has decreased long‐term water availability and/or induced droughts. However, temporal decreases in water availability are not a global phenomenon. Understanding how water deficit‐free forests respond to the recent effects of climate change is paramount towards a full appreciation of the impacts of climate change on global forests. Here, we reveal temporally increasing tree mortality across all study species over the last three decades in the central boreal forests of Canada, where long‐term water availability has increased without apparent climate change‐associated drought. In addition, we find that the effects of conspecific tree‐to‐tree competition have intensified temporally as a mechanism for the increased mortality of shade‐intolerant tree species. Our results suggest that the consequences of climate change on tree mortality are more profound than previously thought.