A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Multipotent Cancer Stem Cells Derived from Human Malignant Peritoneal Mesothelioma Promote Tumorigenesis

During the progression of malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM), tumor nodules propagate diffusely within the abdomen and tumors are characterized by distinct phenotypic sub-types. Recent studies in solid organ cancers have shown that cancer stem cells (CSCs) play a pivotal role in the initiation and progression of tumors. However, it is not known whether tumorigenic stem cells exist and whether they promote tumor growth in MPeM. In this study, we developed and characterized a CSC model for MPeM using stably expandable tumorigenic stem cells derived from patient tumors. We found morphologically distinct populations of CSCs that divide asymmetrically or symmetrically in MPeM in vitro cell culture. The MPeM stem cells (MPeMSCs) express stem cell markers c-MYC, NES and VEGFR2 and in the presence of matrix components cells form colony spheres. MPeMSCs are multipotent, differentiate into neuronal, vascular and adipose progeny upon defined induction and the differentiating cells express lineage-specific markers such as TUBB3, an early neuronal marker; vWF, VEGFA, VEGFC and IL-8, endothelial markers; and PPARγ and FABP4, adipose markers. Xenotransplantation experiments using MPeMSCs demonstrated early tumor growth compared with parental cells. Limiting dilution experiments using MPeMSCs and endothelial lineage-induced cells derived from a single MPeMSC resulted in early tumor growth in the latter group indicating that endothelial differentiation of MPeMSCs is important for MPeM tumor initiation. Our observation that the MPeM tumors contain stem cells with tumorigenic potential has important implications for understanding the cells of origin and tumor progression in MPeM and hence targeting CSCs may be a useful strategy to inhibit malignant progression.     

Rapid Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation for Women in an HIV-1 Prevention Clinical Trial Experiencing Primary HIV-1 Infection during Pregnancy or Breastfeeding

During an HIV-1 prevention clinical trial in East Africa, we observed 16 cases of primary HIV-1 infection in women coincident with pregnancy or breastfeeding. Nine of eleven pregnant women initiated rapid combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), despite having CD4 counts exceeding national criteria for ART initiation; breastfeeding women initiated ART or replacement feeding. Rapid ART initiation during primary HIV-1 infection during pregnancy and breastfeeding is feasible in this setting.