On the influence of prior information evaluated by fully Bayesian criteria in a personalized whole-brain model of epilepsy spread

Individualized anatomical information has been used as prior knowledge in Bayesian inference paradigms of whole-brain network models. However, the actual sensitivity to such personalized information in priors is still unknown. In this study, we introduce the use of fully Bayesian information criteria and leave-one-out cross-validation technique on the subject-specific information to assess different epileptogenicity hypotheses regarding the location of pathological brain areas based on a priori knowledge from dynamical system properties. The Bayesian Virtual Epileptic Patient (BVEP) model, which relies on the fusion of structural data of individuals, a generative model of epileptiform discharges, and a self-tuning Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, is used to infer the spatial map of epileptogenicity across different brain areas. Our results indicate that measuring the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of the BVEP model with informative priors enables reliable and efficient evaluation of potential hypotheses regarding the degree of epileptogenicity across different brain regions. In contrast, while using uninformative priors, the information criteria are unable to provide strong evidence about the epileptogenicity of brain areas. We also show that the fully Bayesian criteria correctly assess different hypotheses about both structural and functional components of whole-brain models that differ across individuals. The fully Bayesian information-theory based approach used in this study suggests a patient-specific strategy for epileptogenicity hypothesis testing in generative brain network models of epilepsy to improve surgical outcomes.     

Effects of conduction delays on the existence and stability of one to one phase locking between two pulse-coupled oscillators

Gamma oscillations can synchronize with near zero phase lag over multiple cortical regions and between hemispheres, and between two distal sites in hippocampal slices. How synchronization can take place over long distances in a stable manner is considered an open question. The phase resetting curve (PRC) keeps track of how much an input advances or delays the next spike, depending upon where in the cycle it is received. We use PRCs under the assumption of pulsatile coupling to derive existence and stability criteria for 1:1 phase-locking that arises via bidirectional pulse coupling of two limit cycle oscillators with a conduction delay of any duration for any 1:1 firing pattern. The coupling can be strong as long as the effect of one input dissipates before the next input is received. We show the form that the generic synchronous and anti-phase solutions take in a system of two identical, identically pulse-coupled oscillators with identical delays. The stability criterion has a simple form that depends only on the slopes of the PRCs at the phases at which inputs are received and on the number of cycles required to complete the delayed feedback loop. The number of cycles required to complete the delayed feedback loop depends upon both the value of the delay and the firing pattern. We successfully tested the predictions of our methods on networks of model neurons. The criteria can easily be extended to include the effect of an input on the cycle after the one in which it is received.     

Young age as a prognostic factor in cervical cancer: analysis of population based data from 10 022 cases

The effect of young age on survival in cervical cancer is not fully known, although evidence has suggested that it is a poor prognostic factor and that young patients should therefore be treated differently from older patients. All 10 022 cases of invasive cervical cancer in the west Midlands during 1957-81, which comprised 10% of the cases in England and Wales, were analysed to determine the prognostic effect of age. Univariate analysis showed a median survival time of 54 months for all cases, with survival rates at five years of 69% for patients aged under 40 and 45% for those aged 40 or older (χ₁² (log rank)=331·4; p<0·0001). This difference remained significant after stratification for stage (χ₁² (log rank)=7·1; p=0·008). Cox regression analysis with nine covariables, including age and year of registration, reaffirmed the importance of conventional prognostic factors such as stage of disease, size of tumour, state of lymph nodes, and differentiation of the tumour. After allowance was made for the effects of other prognostic factors young age was found to be a small but significant favourable factor that did not change during the period of the study. Estimated survival distributions obtained from the Cox model showed that for women presenting with the common characteristics associated with stage Ib disease who were treated with radical radiotherapy the survival rate at five years fell non-linearly from 71% in the group aged 25-29 to 65% in the group aged 65-69.Young age alone is not a reason to alter existing policies for treatment for patients with invasive cervical cancer.     

Sampling Rhyparida nitida Clark (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) and symptoms of their damage on sugarcane

Sampling statistics were determined for larvae, pupae and adults of the chrysomelid Rhyparida nitida associated with sugarcane in Australia and for symptoms of their damage. Iwao's patchiness regression was inappropriate for modelling the mean–variance relationships of the insect counts. Taylor's power law was used to model these data and relationships were developed for counts of small, medium and large larvae, all larvae combined, pupae and adults. The mean–variance relationships of counts of live shoots and shoots killed by larvae of R. nitida were modelled using Iwao's patchiness regression; Taylor's power law was not appropriate to either data set. Relationships to determine sample sizes for fixed levels of precision and fixed-precision-level stop lines for sequential sampling of the different stages and live and dead shoots were also developed. Neither the ln(x + 1) transformation nor the Healy and Taylor transformation consistently standardised the mean–variance relationships of insect counts and the appropriate transformation should be selected on a case-by-case basis. Counts of both live and dead shoots were adequately transformed by the Iwao and Kuno transformation.