Progress toward Global Reduction in Under-Five Mortality: A Bootstrap Analysis of Uncertainty in Millennium Development Goal 4 Estimates

Background

Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for an annual rate of reduction (ARR) of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 4.4% between 1990 and 2015. Progress is measured through the point estimates of the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). To facilitate evidence-based conclusions about progress toward the goal, we assessed the uncertainty in the estimates arising from sampling errors and biases in data series and the inferior quality of specific data series.

Methods and Findings

We implemented a bootstrap procedure to construct 90% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the U5MR and ARR to complement the UN IGME estimates. We constructed the bounds for all countries without a generalized HIV epidemic, where a standard estimation approach is carried out (174 countries). In the bootstrap procedure, potential biases in levels and trends of data series of different source types were accounted for. There is considerable uncertainty about the U5MR, particularly for high mortality countries and in recent years. Among 86 countries with a U5MR of at least 40 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990, the median width of the UI, relative to the U5MR level, was 19% for 1990 and 48% for 2011, with the increase in uncertainty due to more limited data availability. The median absolute width of the 90% UI for the ARR from 1990 to 2011 was 2.2%. Although the ARR point estimate for all high mortality countries was greater than zero, for eight of them uncertainty included the possibility of no improvement between 1990 and 2011. For 13 countries, it is deemed likely that the ARR from 1990 to 2011 exceeded 4.4%.

Conclusions

In light of the upcoming evaluation of Millennium Development Goal 4 in 2015, uncertainty assessments need to be taken into account to avoid unwarranted conclusions about countries'' progress based on limited data. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Management of threatened insect species in Australia, with particular reference to butterflies

Abstract   Advances in determination of conservation status of insects through evaluation of threats (rather than simple 'rarity' alone) help to set priorities for allocation of conservation resources, and formulate effective legislative treatment and field management for the most needy species. Summaries of several recent conservation studies on butterflies exemplify the variety of practical needs, amongst which habitat protection and enhancement is paramount. However, the paucity of biological and distributional information on most Australian insects necessitates considerable flexibility in approach, so that perceptions of conservation need may be highly subjective. Listing species for protection and conservation priority must be viewed as a dynamic process, with opportunity for rapid action, either to list or de-list taxa as research and recovery actions lead to change in perceived or real status and conservation need.     

恶性疟原虫abstrakt同源基因的克隆及DEAD盒家族蛋白的序列分析

DEAD盒蛋白家族的ATP依赖性的RNA解旋酶类参与细胞内几乎所有的RNA代谢过程 ,在几乎所有生物的细胞生长发育过程中扮演着众多不可或缺的角色。在本实验中 ,通过PCR和探针杂交相结合的筛选方法 ,筛选恶性疟原虫 (Plasmodiumfalciparum)的基因组文库 ,克隆了FH1F———abstrakt同源基因的完整序列。通过搜索已经完成测序的恶性疟原虫基因组数据库 ,推测FH1F序列定位在第 5条染色体上。FH1F全长2 80 4bp,包含一个 1 1 6 1bp的完整阅读框 ,编码一个由 386个氨基酸组成的蛋白。对FH1F蛋白序列用BlastP进行搜索和分析以及用DNAStar与许多典型的DEAD盒蛋白序列进行比对分析 ,结果均提示FH1F蛋白应该是DEAD盒家族的一个Abstrakt蛋白。另一方面 ,用DNAStar对已知所有完整的DEAD盒蛋白进行详细的序列分析以及用Mega对这些序列进行系统发育研究的结果都显示 :DEAD盒家族的蛋白聚类成为若干不同的亚群 ;与DEAD盒蛋白的一般保守序列相比 ,Abstrakt,eIF 4A ,Vasa ,P6 8等不同亚群的DEAD盒蛋白在保守区具有各自不同的结构特征。本文对不同的DEAD盒蛋白的结构特征进行了总结并试图给出不同亚群分类上的结构标准 ,对Abstrakt蛋白在本应高度保守的位点上异常于其它DEAD盒蛋白的氨基酸残基的取代也进行了相关的初步分析     

Understanding Animal Companion Surplus in the United States: Relinquishment of Nonadoptables to Animal Shelters for Euthanasia

Relinquishing a nonhuman animal to a shelter is a complex decision that, it is often believed, ultimately may represent a breakdown of the human-animal bond. The result of such a breakdown is an animal companion surplus in the United States, which is no better evidenced than by the statistics documenting the millions of animals euthanized at shelters every year. This research examined the companion animals who are relinquished by their owners to shelters for adoption and compared them specifically to those relinquished for euthanasia. The study also compared the owner characteristics of the animals in these two groups. Although the majority of dogs and cats relinquished are clearly adoptable, a sizable number of these pets presented to shelters for euthanasia have problems precluding their adoptability: old age, illness, and refractory behavior.     

The genus Neurosema (Psocoptera, Calopsocidae) from New Guinea

Abstract Three species of Neurosema are recognized: N.apicalis McLachlan (redescribed, lectotype designated), N. sp. ( N.apicalis sensu Enderlein – mis-identification) and N.pulchra sp.n., and a key to these is given. Separation of genera in the Calopsocidae is briefly discussed.