A Bayesian Approach for Modeling Cattle Movements in the United States: Scaling up a Partially Observed Network

Networks are rarely completely observed and prediction of unobserved edges is an important problem, especially in disease spread modeling where networks are used to represent the pattern of contacts. We focus on a partially observed cattle movement network in the U.S. and present a method for scaling up to a full network based on Bayesian inference, with the aim of informing epidemic disease spread models in the United States. The observed network is a 10% state stratified sample of Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection that are required for interstate movement; describing approximately 20,000 movements from 47 of the contiguous states, with origins and destinations aggregated at the county level. We address how to scale up the 10% sample and predict unobserved intrastate movements based on observed movement distances. Edge prediction based on a distance kernel is not straightforward because the probability of movement does not always decline monotonically with distance due to underlying industry infrastructure. Hence, we propose a spatially explicit model where the probability of movement depends on distance, number of premises per county and historical imports of animals. Our model performs well in recapturing overall metrics of the observed network at the node level (U.S. counties), including degree centrality and betweenness; and performs better compared to randomized networks. Kernel generated movement networks also recapture observed global network metrics, including network size, transitivity, reciprocity, and assortativity better than randomized networks. In addition, predicted movements are similar to observed when aggregated at the state level (a broader geographic level relevant for policy) and are concentrated around states where key infrastructures, such as feedlots, are common. We conclude that the method generally performs well in predicting both coarse geographical patterns and network structure and is a promising method to generate full networks that incorporate the uncertainty of sampled and unobserved contacts.     

Visual Cues Given by Humans Are Not Sufficient for Asian Elephants (Elephas maximus) to Find Hidden Food

Recent research suggests that domesticated species – due to artificial selection by humans for specific, preferred behavioral traits – are better than wild animals at responding to visual cues given by humans about the location of hidden food. \Although this seems to be supported by studies on a range of domesticated (including dogs, goats and horses) and wild (including wolves and chimpanzees) animals, there is also evidence that exposure to humans positively influences the ability of both wild and domesticated animals to follow these same cues. Here, we test the performance of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) on an object choice task that provides them with visual-only cues given by humans about the location of hidden food. Captive elephants are interesting candidates for investigating how both domestication and human exposure may impact cue-following as they represent a non-domesticated species with almost constant human interaction. As a group, the elephants (n = 7) in our study were unable to follow pointing, body orientation or a combination of both as honest signals of food location. They were, however, able to follow vocal commands with which they were already familiar in a novel context, suggesting the elephants are able to follow cues if they are sufficiently salient. Although the elephants’ inability to follow the visual cues provides partial support for the domestication hypothesis, an alternative explanation is that elephants may rely more heavily on other sensory modalities, specifically olfaction and audition. Further research will be needed to rule out this alternative explanation.     

Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Pollen- and Seed-Mediated Gene Flow from Genetically Engineered Plum Prunus domestica

Pollen flow from a 0.46 ha plot of genetically engineered (GE) Prunus domestica located in West Virginia, USA was evaluated from 2000–2010. Sentinel plum trees were planted at distances ranging from 132 to 854 m from the center of the GE orchard. Plots of mixed plum varieties and seedlings were located at 384, 484 and 998 m from the GE plot. Bee hives (Apis mellifera) were dispersed between the GE plum plot and the pollen flow monitoring sites. Pollen-mediated gene flow from out of the GE plum plot to non-GE plums under the study conditions was low, only occurring at all in 4 of 11 years and then in only 0.31% of the 12,116 seeds analyzed. When it occurred, gene flow, calculated as the number of GUS positive embryos/total embryos sampled, ranged from 0.215% at 132 m from the center of the GE plum plot (28 m from the nearest GE plum tree) to 0.033–0.017% at longer distances (384–998 m). Based on the percentage of GUS positive seeds per individual sampled tree the range was 0.4% to 12%. Within the GE field plot, gene flow ranged from 4.9 to 39%. Gene flow was related to distance and environmental conditions. A single year sample from a sentinel plot 132 m from the center of the GE plot accounted for 65% of the total 11-year gene flow. Spatial modeling indicated that gene flow dramatically decreased at distances over 400 m from the GE plot. Air temperature and rainfall were, respectively, positively and negatively correlated with gene flow, reflecting the effects of weather conditions on insect pollinator activity. Seed-mediated gene flow was not detected. These results support the feasibility of coexistence of GE and non-GE plum orchards.     

Distribution and speciation of Mn in hydrated roots of cowpea at levels inhibiting root growth

The phytotoxicity of Mn is important globally due to its increased solubility in acid or waterlogged soils. Short‐term (≤24 h) solution culture studies with 150 µM Mn were conducted to investigate the in situ distribution and speciation of Mn in apical tissues of hydrated roots of cowpea [Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp. cv. Red Caloona] using synchrotron‐based techniques. Accumulation of Mn was rapid; exposure to 150 µM Mn for only 5 min resulting in substantial Mn accumulation in the root cap and associated mucigel. The highest tissue concentrations of Mn were in the root cap, with linear combination fitting of the data suggesting that ≥80% of this Mn(II) was associated with citrate. Interestingly, although the primary site of Mn toxicity is typically the shoots, concentrations of Mn in the stele of the root were not noticeably higher than in the surrounding cortical tissues in the short‐term (≤24 h). The data provided here from the in situ analyses of hydrated roots exposed to excess Mn are, to our knowledge, the first of this type to be reported for Mn and provide important information regarding plant responses to high Mn in the rooting environment.     

Roles of sulfate adsorption and base cation supply in controlling the chemical response of streams of western Virginia to reduced acid deposition

Micro-organisms are vital for the functioning of all food webs and are the major drivers of the global biogeochemical cycles. The microbial community compositions and physicochemical conditions of the different water masses in the North Sea, a biologically productive sea on the northwestern European continental shelf, were studied during two summer cruises, in order to provide detailed baseline data for this region and examine its microbial biogeography. For each cruise the stations were clustered according to their physicochemical characteristics and their microbial community composition. The largest cluster, which covered most of the central and northern North Sea, consisted of stations that were characterized by a thermally stratified water column and had low chlorophyll a autofluorescence and generally low microbial abundances. The second main cluster contained stations that were dominated by picoeukaryotes and showed the influence of influxes of North Atlantic water via the English Channel and south of the Shetland Islands. The third main cluster was formed by stations that were dominated by cyanobacteria and nanoeukaryotes in the reduced salinity Norwegian Coastal and Skagerrak waters, while the fourth cluster represented the German Bight, a region with strong riverine input, high nutrient concentrations, and consequently high heterotrophic bacterial and viral abundances. Despite the complex and dynamic hydrographic nature of the North Sea, the consistent distinctions in microbiology between these different hydrographic regions during both cruises illustrate the strong links between the microbial community and its environment, as well as the possibility to use microorganisms for long-term monitoring of environmental change.     

A comparison of bats and rodents as reservoirs of zoonotic viruses: are bats special?

Bats are the natural reservoirs of a number of high-impact viral zoonoses. We present a quantitative analysis to address the hypothesis that bats are unique in their propensity to host zoonotic viruses based on a comparison with rodents, another important host order. We found that bats indeed host more zoonotic viruses per species than rodents, and we identified life-history and ecological factors that promote zoonotic viral richness. More zoonotic viruses are hosted by species whose distributions overlap with a greater number of other species in the same taxonomic order (sympatry). Specifically in bats, there was evidence for increased zoonotic viral richness in species with smaller litters (one young), greater longevity and more litters per year. Furthermore, our results point to a new hypothesis to explain in part why bats host more zoonotic viruses per species: the stronger effect of sympatry in bats and more viruses shared between bat species suggests that interspecific transmission is more prevalent among bats than among rodents. Although bats host more zoonotic viruses per species, the total number of zoonotic viruses identified in bats (61) was lower than in rodents (68), a result of there being approximately twice the number of rodent species as bat species. Therefore, rodents should still be a serious concern as reservoirs of emerging viruses. These findings shed light on disease emergence and perpetuation mechanisms and may help lead to a predictive framework for identifying future emerging infectious virus reservoirs.     

Do foods imported into the UK have a greater environmental impact than the same foods produced within the UK?

Purpose

This study of seven foods assessed whether there are modes or locations of production that require significantly fewer inputs, and hence cause less pollution, than others. For example, would increasing imports of field-grown tomatoes from the Mediterranean reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by reducing the need for production in heated greenhouses in the UK, taking account of the additional transport emissions? Is meat production in the UK less polluting than the import of red meat from the southern hemisphere?

Methods

We carried out a life-cycle inventory for each commodity, which quantified flows relating to life-cycle assessment (LCA) impact categories: primary energy use, acidification, eutrophication, abiotic resource use, pesticide use, land occupation and ozone depletion. The system boundary included all production inputs up to arrival at the retail distribution centre (RDC). The allocation of production burdens for meat products was on the basis of economic value. We evaluated indicator foods from which it is possible to draw parallels for foods whose production follows a similar chain: tomatoes (greenhouse crops), strawberries (field-grown soft fruit), apples (stored for year-round supply or imported during spring and summer), potatoes (early season imports or long-stored UK produce), poultry and beef (imported from countries such as Brazil) and lamb (imported to balance domestic spring–autumn supply).

Results and discussion

Total pre-farm gate global warming potential (GWP) of potatoes and beef were less for UK production than for production in the alternative country. Up to delivery to the RDC, total GWP were less for UK potatoes, beef and apples than for production elsewhere. Production of tomatoes and strawberries in Spain, poultry in Brazil and lamb in New Zealand produced less GWP than in the UK despite emissions that took place during transport. For foods produced with only small burdens of GWP, such as apples and strawberries, the burden from transport may be a large proportion of the total. For foods with inherently large GWP per tonne, such as meat products, burdens arising from transport may only be a small proportion of the total.

Conclusions

When considering the GWP of food production, imports from countries where productivity is greater and/or where refrigerated storage requirement is less will lead to less total GWP than axiomatic preference for local produce. However, prioritising GWP may lead to increases in other environmental burdens, in particular leading to both greater demands on and decreasing quality of water resources.