A STRUCTURED COALESCENT PROCESS FOR SEASONALLY FLUCTUATING POPULATIONS

Many short‐lived organisms pass through several generations during favorable growing seasons, separated by inhospitable periods during which only small hibernating or estivating refugia remain. This induces pronounced seasonal fluctuations in population size and metapopulation structure. The first generations in the growing season will be characterized by small, relatively isolated demes whereas the later generations will experience larger deme sizes with more extensive gene flow. Fluctuations of this sort can induce changes in the amount of genetic variation in early season samples compared to late season samples, a classical example being the observations of seasonal variation in allelism in New England Drosophila populations by P.T. Ives. In this article, we study the properties of a structured coalescent process under seasonal fluctuations using numerical analysis of exact state equations, analytical approximations that rely on a separation of timescales between intrademic versus interdemic processes, and individual‐based simulations. We show that although an increase in genetic variation during each favorable growing season is observed, it is not as pronounced as in the empirical observations. This suggests that some of the temporal patterns of variation seen by Ives may be due to selection against deleterious lethals rather than neutral processes.     

Coalescent processes when the distribution of offspring number among individuals is highly skewed

We report a complex set of scaling relationships between mutation and reproduction in a simple model of a population. These follow from a consideration of patterns of genetic diversity in a sample of DNA sequences. Five different possible limit processes, each with a different scaled mutation parameter, can be used to describe genetic diversity in a large population. Only one of these corresponds to the usual population genetic model, and the others make drastically different predictions about genetic diversity. The complexity arises because individuals can potentially have very many offspring. To the extent that this occurs in a given species, our results imply that inferences from genetic data made under the usual assumptions are likely to be wrong. Our results also uncover a fundamental difference between populations in which generations are overlapping and those in which generations are discrete. We choose one of the five limit processes that appears to be appropriate for some marine organisms and use a sample of genetic data from a population of Pacific oysters to infer the parameters of the model. The data suggest the presence of rare reproduction events in which approximately 8% of the population is replaced by the offspring of a single individual.     

Directional selection and the site-frequency spectrum.

In this article we explore statistical properties of the maximum-likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the selection and mutation parameters in a Poisson random field population genetics model of directional selection at DNA sites. We derive the asymptotic variances and covariance of the MLEs and explore the power of the likelihood ratio tests (LRT) of neutrality for varying levels of mutation and selection as well as the robustness of the LRT to deviations from the assumption of free recombination among sites. We also discuss the coverage of confidence intervals on the basis of two standard-likelihood methods. We find that the LRT has high power to detect deviations from neutrality and that the maximum-likelihood estimation performs very well when the ancestral states of all mutations in the sample are known. When the ancestral states are not known, the test has high power to detect deviations from neutrality for negative selection but not for positive selection. We also find that the LRT is not robust to deviations from the assumption of independence among sites.     

Leveraging Distant Relatedness to Quantify Human Mutation and Gene-Conversion Rates

The rate at which human genomes mutate is a central biological parameter that has many implications for our ability to understand demographic and evolutionary phenomena. We present a method for inferring mutation and gene-conversion rates by using the number of sequence differences observed in identical-by-descent (IBD) segments together with a reconstructed model of recent population-size history. This approach is robust to, and can quantify, the presence of substantial genotyping error, as validated in coalescent simulations. We applied the method to 498 trio-phased sequenced Dutch individuals and inferred a point mutation rate of 1.66 × 10⁻⁸ per base per generation and a rate of 1.26 × 10⁻⁹ for <20 bp indels. By quantifying how estimates varied as a function of allele frequency, we inferred the probability that a site is involved in non-crossover gene conversion as 5.99 × 10⁻⁶. We found that recombination does not have observable mutagenic effects after gene conversion is accounted for and that local gene-conversion rates reflect recombination rates. We detected a strong enrichment of recent deleterious variation among mismatching variants found within IBD regions and observed summary statistics of local sharing of IBD segments to closely match previously proposed metrics of background selection; however, we found no significant effects of selection on our mutation-rate estimates. We detected no evidence of strong variation of mutation rates in a number of genomic annotations obtained from several recent studies. Our analysis suggests that a mutation-rate estimate higher than that reported by recent pedigree-based studies should be adopted in the context of DNA-based demographic reconstruction.     

Influences on variation in territorial tenures of male white-faced dragonflies (Leucorrhinia intacta) (Odonata: Libellulidae)

Some individuals in species with extended periods of territorial occupancy may change territory locations within a single bout of territorial activity. Length of occupancy of mating territories among males in a local population of white-faced dragonflies (Leucorrhinia intacta) varied from more than 6 h to 15 min or less. Males with short tenures often established territories in several locations on the pond during a day. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain shifting territorial sites rather than remaining in a single site during one bout of territoriality. We attempted to test the hypothesis that males shift to leave low-quality sites. Site quality may be affected by costs of defense in relation to intruder rate and the mating benefits of holding the territory. To test whether variation in these possible effects of benefits and costs of territoriality influenced tenure, we manipulated local quality of oviposition substrate and perch density. The quality of oviposition substrate, but not perch density, influenced both potential benefits and costs of territoriality. Female density was higher in areas with good substrate, but so were rates of males intruding into the territories, rates of chasing by territorial males, and local density of territorial males. More matings occurred in areas with good substrate, but among males with tenures of 15 min or more, mating success per male and tenure lengths did not differ statistically among treatments. Defense costs were low for all treatments and perhaps were not an important influence on tenure duration. Territorial males in this population probably adjusted local density to expected mating success by initial choice of site rather than by varying tenure length. Variation in tenure length at a site resulted, in part, from stochastic external factors, such as predation attempts.     

Sampling properties of DNA sequence data in phylogenetic analysis

We inferred phylogenetic trees from individual genes and random samples of nucleotides from the mitochondrial genomes of 10 vertebrates and compared the results to those obtained by analyzing the whole genomes. Individual genes are poor samples in that they infrequently lead to the whole-genome tree. A large number of nucleotide sites is needed to exactly determine the whole-genome tree. A relatively small number of sites, however, often results in a tree close to the whole-genome tree. We found that blocks of contiguous sites were less likely to lead to the whole-genome tree than samples composed of sites drawn individually from throughout the genome. Samples of contiguous sites are not representative of the entire genome, a condition that violates a basic assumption of the bootstrap method as it is applied in phylogenetic studies.