Factors Influencing Reporting and Harvest Probabilities in North American Geese

ABSTRACT We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US$10, $20, $30, $50, or $100) and control ($0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95% CI = 0.69–0.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.     

Thicket expansion in a South African savanna under divergent land use: local vs. global drivers?

Woody plant increase in grassy biomes has been widely reported over the last century. Increases have been attributed to local drivers associated with land use change, such as heavy grazing or fire suppression, or, controversially, to global drivers such as increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). Here, we report a comparison of woody increase since the 1930s in three neighbouring areas with highly contrasting land use systems to help distinguish between local and global causes of woody increase. Aerial photography was used to measure changes in tree cover for three time intervals (1937, 1960, 2004) for three adjacent 25 km² sites which remained under radically different tenure (conservation, commercial farms, and communal rangeland) over the study period. From previous studies on drivers affecting savanna dynamics, we predicted a decrease in tree cover for the conservation and communal sites and an increase in tree cover at the commercial site. The analyses showed highly significant increases in tree cover at all sites. Total tree cover increased from 14% in 1937 to 58% in 2004 at the conservation site, 3–50% in the commercial ranching area and 6–25% in the communal farming area. Reconstruction of past land use practices showed large differences in stocking rates, herbivore species, burning practices, human population densities and natural resource harvesting between the three sites. These land use differences are reflected in differences in woody cover among the three sites in 2004. However, despite major differences in land use, tree cover also increased significantly in all three areas. This suggests global drivers favouring woody plant increase in grassy vegetation regardless of land use practises. In our study area the most likely candidates are increased CO₂ and/or atmospheric nitrogen deposition.     

Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change

Previous projection of climate change impacts on global food supply focuses solely on production from terrestrial biomes, ignoring the large contribution of animal protein from marine capture fisheries. Here, we project changes in global catch potential for 1066 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates from 2005 to 2055 under climate change scenarios. We show that climate change may lead to large-scale redistribution of global catch potential, with an average of 30–70% increase in high-latitude regions and a drop of up to 40% in the tropics. Moreover, maximum catch potential declines considerably in the southward margins of semienclosed seas while it increases in poleward tips of continental shelf margins. Such changes are most apparent in the Pacific Ocean. Among the 20 most important fishing Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) regions in terms of their total landings, EEZ regions with the highest increase in catch potential by 2055 include Norway, Greenland, the United States (Alaska) and Russia (Asia). On the contrary, EEZ regions with the biggest loss in maximum catch potential include Indonesia, the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii), Chile and China. Many highly impacted regions, particularly those in the tropics, are socioeconomically vulnerable to these changes. Thus, our results indicate the need to develop adaptation policy that could minimize climate change impacts through fisheries. The study also provides information that may be useful to evaluate fisheries management options under climate change.     

Spatial eigenfunction analyses in stream networks: do watercourse and overland distances produce different results?

1. The use of spatial variables is a common procedure in ecological studies. The technique is based on the definition of a connectivity/distance matrix that conceptually defines the dispersal of organisms. The shortest distance between two points is a straight line. Despite the fact that a straight line may not represent the easiest dispersal path for many kinds of organisms, straight‐line distances are often used to detect patterns. We argue that other types of connectivity/distance matrices will better represent dispersal paths, such as the watercourse distance for aquatic organisms (e.g. fish, shrimps). 2. We used empirical and simulated community data to evaluate the usefulness of spatial variables generated from watercourse and overland (straight‐line) distances. 3. Spatial variables based on watercourse distances captured patterns that straight‐line distances did not, and provided better representations of the spatial patterns generated by dispersal along a dendritic network.     

An invasive fish species within its native range: community effects and population dynamics of Gambusia affinis in the central United States

1. Management of invasive species benefits from detailed information on the biology of the invaders, both from where they have already invaded, and from within their areas of origin. Western mosquitofish, Gambusia affinis, is a widely invasive and destructive freshwater fish. However, within its native range, G. affinis co‐exists with many other fish species in a wide variety of habitats without obvious harm. 2. In this study, we used data on fish communities within the native range of G. affinis at 154 sites across a broad spatial scale to examine the effects of G. affinis on species richness and diversity of residual (species other than G. affinis) fish assemblages. We further used data based on annual samples at eight fixed river sites over 18 summers to examine temporal population dynamics of G. affinis and to test factors associated with population fluctuations. 3. Higher residual species richness occurred in the presence of G. affinis, but residual diversity did not differ. We found an inverse relationship between relative abundance of G. affinis and residual species richness (although effect size was extremely small), but no effect on residual diversity. 4. Gambusia affinis populations fluctuated markedly across summers at all eight fixed sites, but population sizes at a site over time were not autocorrelated. However, population fluctuations were highly correlated among sites across all years, suggesting that regional factors influenced population size. Regional abundance of G. affinis did not correlate with drought, rainfall or winter temperature, but varied with spring temperature. We suggest earlier onset of reproduction in warmer springs resulted in larger summer populations. 5. Overall, within its native range, G. affinis does not appear to impact negatively on the assemblages in which it occurs, possibly due to fluctuations in its density. These findings suggest that introduced Gambusia populations, and those of other invasive species, warrant careful monitoring over long periods of time where they have invaded. Long‐term monitoring of new populations can establish if they are prone to ‘boom and bust’ dynamics, in which case the invader may be less a threat than sometimes assumed. Population information from long‐term studies, either in their native ranges or at invaded sites, can thus help to form the basis of prudent, cost‐effective management strategies for invasive organisms.     

Phylogenetic interrelationships,taxonomy, and reductive evolution in the Neotropical electric fish genus Hypopygus (Teleostei,Ostariophysi, Gymnotiformes)

A phylogenetic reconstruction of the Neotropical electric fish genus Hypopygus based on 47 parsimony‐informative morphological characters is presented. A series of synapomorphies support the hypothesis of monophyly of Hypopygus, and partially resolve species‐level relationships within the genus. Hypopygus species are recognized here as miniaturized fishes based on two criteria; first, a derived condition of diminutive body size, and; second, the presence of a suite of reductive morphological characters, including partial or total losses, simplifications, and reductions of the anal‐fin rays, scales, cranial bones, and laterosensory canal system. Reductive characters associated with miniaturization comprise 45% of the total number of characters in the phylogenetic reconstruction of the genus. Miniaturization and reductive morphological evolution in Hypopygus are discussed here in the phylogenetic context. A taxonomic revision of Hypopygus is presented, in which five new species are described, two species previously assigned to the genus are redescribed, and a single known species of Stegostenopos is redescribed and included in Hypopygus as a junior synonym. Distribution maps and a key for all eight valid species of Hypopygus are provided, based on the examination of 5014 catalogued museum specimens. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 163 , 1096–1156.     

More than meets the eye: a morphological and phylogenetic comparison of long‐spurred,white‐flowered Satyrium species (Orchidaceae) in South Africa

Superficial similarities among unrelated species are often a result of convergent evolution and can cause considerable taxonomic confusion. A case in point is Satyrium eurycalcaratum , described here as a new species, which has been confused with several other Satyrium spp. with similar long‐spurred, white flowers. A phylogenetic analysis, based on molecular data, indicated that S. eurycalcaratum is not closely related to any of the species with which it has been previously confused. A comparative analysis of morphological characters in the seven South African Satyrium spp. with long‐spurred, white flowers showed that each of these, including S. eurycalcaratum , is characterized by a unique combination of traits. Despite the similarity in pollination syndrome characters, such as spur length and flower colour, variation in rostellum structure was particularly pronounced and four distinctive forms were present. There was no phylogenetic signal in patterns of interspecific rostellum variation, as some closely related species had different rostella, whereas some distantly related species shared similar rostellum structures. We therefore conclude that the use of rostellum traits in conjunction with phylogenetic evidence can resolve species delimitations among orchid species that share the same pollination syndrome. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 166 , 417–430.     

How do trees die? A test of the hydraulic failure and carbon starvation hypotheses

Despite decades of research on plant drought tolerance, the physiological mechanisms by which trees succumb to drought are still under debate. We report results from an experiment designed to separate and test the current leading hypotheses of tree mortality. We show that piñon pine (Pinus edulis) trees can die of both hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, and that during drought, the loss of conductivity and carbohydrate reserves can also co‐occur. Hydraulic constraints on plant carbohydrate use determined survival time: turgor loss in the phloem limited access to carbohydrate reserves, but hydraulic control of respiration prolonged survival. Our data also demonstrate that hydraulic failure may be associated with loss of adequate tissue carbohydrate content required for osmoregulation, which then promotes failure to maintain hydraulic integrity.     

Use of Shields stress to reconstruct and forecast changes in river metabolism

1. Discharge patterns of streams and rivers may be substantially affected by changes in water management, land use, or climate. Such hydrological alterations are likely to influence biotic processes, including overall ecosystem metabolism (photosynthesis and respiration). One regulator of aquatic ecosystem metabolism directly tied to hydrology is movement of bed sediments. 2. We propose that ecosystem metabolism can be reconstructed or predicted for any suite of hydrological conditions through the use of quantitative relationships between discharge, bed movement and metabolism. We tested this concept on a plains reach of the South Platte River in Colorado. 3. Movement of bed sediments was predicted from river discharge and the Shields stress, a ratio of velocity‐induced stress to sediment grain size. Quantitative relationships were established empirically between metabolic response to bed movement and recovery from bed movement, thus linking metabolism to hydrology. 4. The linkage of metabolism to hydrology allowed us to reconstruct daily photosynthesis and respiration over the 70‐year period for which discharge is known at our study site on the South Platte River. The reconstruction shows major ecological change caused by hydrological manipulation: the river has lost two‐thirds of its photosynthetic potential, and the ratio of photosynthesis to respiration is now much lower than it was prior to 1960. 5. The same approach could be used to anticipate ecological responses to proposed hydrological manipulations, to quantify benefits of hydrological restoration, or to illustrate potential effects of change in climate or land use on flowing‐water ecosystems.