Evaluation of Nine Consensus Indices in Delphi Foresight Research and Their Dependency on Delphi Survey Characteristics: A Simulation Study and Debate on Delphi Design and Interpretation

The extent of consensus (or the lack thereof) among experts in emerging fields of innovation can serve as antecedents of scientific, societal, investor and stakeholder synergy or conflict. Naturally, how we measure consensus is of great importance to science and technology strategic foresight. The Delphi methodology is a widely used anonymous survey technique to evaluate consensus among a panel of experts. Surprisingly, there is little guidance on how indices of consensus can be influenced by parameters of the Delphi survey itself. We simulated a classic three-round Delphi survey building on the concept of clustered consensus/dissensus. We evaluated three study characteristics that are pertinent for design of Delphi foresight research: (1) the number of survey questions, (2) the sample size, and (3) the extent to which experts conform to group opinion (the Group Conformity Index) in a Delphi study. Their impacts on the following nine Delphi consensus indices were then examined in 1000 simulations: Clustered Mode, Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Conger’s Kappa, De Moivre index, Extremities Version of the Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Fleiss’ Kappa, Mode, the Interquartile Range and Pairwise Agreement. The dependency of a consensus index on the Delphi survey characteristics was expressed from 0.000 (no dependency) to 1.000 (full dependency). The number of questions (range: 6 to 40) in a survey did not have a notable impact whereby the dependency values remained below 0.030. The variation in sample size (range: 6 to 50) displayed the top three impacts for the Interquartile Range, the Clustered Mode and the Mode (dependency = 0.396, 0.130, 0.116, respectively). The Group Conformity Index, a construct akin to measuring stubbornness/flexibility of experts’ opinions, greatly impacted all nine Delphi consensus indices (dependency = 0.200 to 0.504), except the Extremity CPWA and the Interquartile Range that were impacted only beyond the first decimal point (dependency = 0.087 and 0.083, respectively). Scholars in technology design, foresight research and future(s) studies might consider these new findings in strategic planning of Delphi studies, for example, in rational choice of consensus indices and sample size, or accounting for confounding factors such as experts’ variable degrees of conformity (stubbornness/flexibility) in modifying their opinions.     

The endothelin 1 and endothelin receptor A gene polymorphisms increase the risk of developing papillary thyroid cancer

Molecular Biology Reports - The endothelin (EDN) axis (EDN1 and EDN1 receptor A, EDNRA) is involved in cellular growth, differentiation, invasiveness, and tumor progression in several cancers. We...     

Distribution of Activator of G-Protein Signaling 3 within the Aggresomal Pathway: Role of Specific Residues in the Tetratricopeptide Repeat Domain and Differential Regulation by the AGS3 Binding Partners Giα and Mammalian Inscuteable

AGS3, a receptor-independent activator of G-protein signaling, is involved in unexpected functional diversity for G-protein signaling systems. AGS3 has seven tetratricopeptide (TPR) motifs upstream of four G-protein regulatory (GPR) motifs that serve as docking sites for Giα-GDP. The positioning of AGS3 within the cell and the intramolecular dynamics between different domains of the proteins are likely key determinants of their ability to influence G-protein signaling. We report that AGS3 enters into the aggresome pathway and that distribution of the protein is regulated by the AGS3 binding partners Giα and mammalian Inscuteable (mInsc). Giα rescues AGS3 from the aggresome, whereas mInsc augments the aggresome-like distribution of AGS3. The distribution of AGS3 to the aggresome is dependent upon the TPR domain, and it is accelerated by disruption of the TPR organizational structure or introduction of a nonsynonymous single-nucleotide polymorphism. These data present AGS3, G-proteins, and mInsc as candidate proteins involved in regulating cellular stress associated with protein-processing pathologies.The discovery of AGS3 (GPSM1) and related accessory proteins revealed unexpected functional diversity for G-protein signaling systems (8, 36). AGS3 is involved in a number of different cellular activities, including asymmetric cell division during neuronal development (30), neuronal plasticity and addiction (9, 10, 12, 38, 39), autophagy (27), membrane protein trafficking (17), cardiovascular function (7), and metabolism (7). AGS3 is a multidomain protein consisting of seven tetratricopeptide repeats (TPR) in the amino-terminal portion of the protein and four G-protein regulatory (GPR) motifs in the carboxyl region of the protein. Each of the GPR motifs binds and stabilizes the GDP-bound conformation of Gα (Giα, Gtα, and Gi/oα), essentially behaving as a guanine nucleotide dissociation inhibitor. As such, AGS3 may be complexed with up to four Gα and function as an alternative binding partner for Gα independently of the classical heterotrimeric Gαβγ. Despite the clearly demonstrated function of AGS3 and the related protein LGN (GPSM2 or AGS5) in various model organisms and a fairly solid, basic biochemical understanding of the interaction of a GPR motif with Gα, the signals that operate “upstream” and/or “downstream” of AGS3 or an AGS3-Gi/oα complex are not well defined.AGS3 and other GPR proteins may regulate G-protein signaling directly by influencing the interaction of Gα with Gβγ or another Gα binding partner. In addition, a portion of Gα in the cell is complexed with GPR proteins to various degrees, and this interaction is regulated. Ric-8A interacts with an AGS3-Giα complex in a manner somewhat analogous to the interaction of a G-protein-coupled receptor with heterotrimeric Gαβγ, promoting nucleotide exchange and the apparent dissociation of AGS3 and Giα-GDP (37). The specific impact of AGS3 and other GPR proteins on signaling events is likely dependent upon where the individual protein is positioned within the cell and the nature of intra- and intermolecular interactions that influence the interaction of the GPR motif with Gi/oα.The TPR domain of AGS3 is an important determinant of its positioning within the cell through its interaction with specific binding partners (1, 8, 28, 36). As part of a broader effort to address the fundamental questions of AGS3 “positioning” and control of G-protein interaction, we focused upon the roles of individual TPR domains. Endogenous and ectopically expressed wild-type AGS3 is nonhomogeneously distributed in the cytoplasm, with obvious punctate structures, and it may be present at the cell periphery. Disruption of the TPR organizational structure by targeted amino acid substitutions or introduction of a nonsynonymous single-nucleotide polymorphism redistributes AGS3 to punctate structures throughout the cytoplasm that are similar in appearance to the preaggresomal assemblies or aggregates observed in neurodegenerative diseases. Upon cellular stress, both wild-type and TPR-modified AGS3 migrate, in a microtubule-dependent manner, to a perinuclear aggresome. The distribution of AGS3 to the aggresome is dependent upon the TPR domain, and it is differentially regulated by Giα and mammalian Inscuteable (mInsc), which bind to the GPR and TPR domains, respectively, of AGS3. These data present AGS3 and G-proteins as candidate proteins involved in regulating cellular stress associated with protein-processing pathologies and suggest that this involvement can be manipulated to therapeutic advantage.     

The United States of America and Scientific Research

To gauge the current commitment to scientific research in the United States of America (US), we compared federal research funding (FRF) with the US gross domestic product (GDP) and industry research spending during the past six decades. In order to address the recent globalization of scientific research, we also focused on four key indicators of research activities: research and development (R&D) funding, total science and engineering doctoral degrees, patents, and scientific publications. We compared these indicators across three major population and economic regions: the US, the European Union (EU) and the People''s Republic of China (China) over the past decade. We discovered a number of interesting trends with direct relevance for science policy. The level of US FRF has varied between 0.2% and 0.6% of the GDP during the last six decades. Since the 1960s, the US FRF contribution has fallen from twice that of industrial research funding to roughly equal. Also, in the last two decades, the portion of the US government R&D spending devoted to research has increased. Although well below the US and the EU in overall funding, the current growth rate for R&D funding in China greatly exceeds that of both. Finally, the EU currently produces more science and engineering doctoral graduates and scientific publications than the US in absolute terms, but not per capita. This study''s aim is to facilitate a serious discussion of key questions by the research community and federal policy makers. In particular, our results raise two questions with respect to: a) the increasing globalization of science: “What role is the US playing now, and what role will it play in the future of international science?”; and b) the ability to produce beneficial innovations for society: “How will the US continue to foster its strengths?”     

Valproic acid inhibits the proliferation of SHSY5Y neuroblastoma cancer cells by downregulating URG4/URGCP and CCND1 gene expression

Valproic acid (VPA), used for the treatment of epilepsy and bipolar disorder, regulates several signaling pathways in brain cells. The up-regulated gene 4 (URG4/URGCP) is a novel gene located on 7p13. URG4/URGCP stimulates cyclin D1 (CCND1) mRNA expression, and URG4/URGCP silencing diminishes CCND1 mRNA expression in HepG2 cells. This study was performed to investigate the anti-cancer mechanism of action of VPA by analyzing the expression of novel gene URG4/URGCP, CCND1, p21, p53, p65 (RelA), Bax, and Bcl-2 in SHSY5Y neuroblastoma (NB) cancer cells. Cytotoxic effects of VPA in SHSY5Y were noticed in time and dose dependent manner with the IC₅₀ doses within the range of 0.5–10 mM. IC₅₀ doses in the SHSY5Y were detected as 7.5 mM. Expression profiles were determined by semi quantitative RT-PCR and URG4/URGCP protein change by western blot analysis. Our results suggest that VPA induces cell cycle arrest in SHSY5Y due to the decrease in URG4/URGCP, CCND1 gene expression and the increase in p65. To conclude, VPA may be a prospective agent for the treatment of NB as a single agent or in combination with other drugs. Thus, more studies should be designed to find a safe dose with the best effects of VPA.     

Nicotine potentiates the neurogenic contractile response of rabbit bladder tissue via nicotinic acetylcholine receptors: nitric oxide and prostaglandins have no role in this process

Nicotine, a nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) agonist, has a role in modulation of the neurotransmitter release following nerve stimulation in both the central and peripheral nervous systems. The aim of this study was to determine whether electrical field stimulation (EFS)-evoked contractions are altered in rabbit bladder in the presence of nicotine and, if an alteration occurs, to investigate the effects of nitric oxide and prostaglandins on nicotine-induced alternation in isolated rabbit bladder. EFS-evoked contractile responses from rabbit bladder obtained were recorded with isometric force displacement transducers. Nicotine was added to preparations at various concentrations. The effects of hexamethonium, cadmium (Cd(2+)), indomethacin and N-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME) were tested on the EFS-evoked contractions in the presence of nicotine. Nicotine led to a dose-dependent increase in the amplitude of the EFS-evoked contractile responses. Cd(2+) and hexamethonium inhibited the nicotine-induced increase in EFS-evoked responses, whereas indomethacin and L-NAME had no effect. In conclusion, nicotine increased the EFS-evoked contractile responses possibly by facilitating release of neurotransmitters from nerve terminals by a mechanism dependent on the influx of Ca(2+) from voltage-gated Ca(2+) channels (VGCCs) via activation of nAChRs in isolated rabbit bladder. Nitric oxide and prostaglandins do not have a physiological role in the regulation of neurotransmitter release.     

Male and female brain evolution is subject to contrasting selection pressures in primates

The claim that differences in brain size across primate species has mainly been driven by the demands of sociality (the "social brain" hypothesis) is now widely accepted. Some of the evidence to support this comes from the fact that species that live in large social groups have larger brains, and in particular larger neocortices. Lindenfors and colleagues (BMC Biology 5:20) add significantly to our appreciation of this process by showing that there are striking differences between the two sexes in the social mechanisms and brain units involved. Female sociality (which is more affiliative) is related most closely to neocortex volume, but male sociality (which is more competitive and combative) is more closely related to subcortical units (notably those associated with emotional responses). Thus different brain units have responded to different selection pressures.     

Policy and data-intensive scientific discovery in the beginning of the 21st century

Recent developments in our ability to capture, curate, and analyze data, the field of data-intensive science (DIS), have indeed made these interesting and challenging times for scientific practice as well as policy making in real time. We are confronted with immense datasets that challenge our ability to pool, transfer, analyze, or interpret scientific observations. We have more data available than ever before, yet more questions to be answered as well, and no clear path to answer them. We are excited by the potential for science-based solutions to humankind's problems, yet stymied by the limitations of our current cyberinfrastructure and existing public policies. Importantly, DIS signals a transformation of the hypothesis-driven tradition of science ("first hypothesize, then experiment") to one that is typified by "first experiment, then hypothesize" mode of discovery. Another hallmark of DIS is that it amasses data that are public goods (i.e., creates a "commons") that can further be creatively mined for various applications in different sectors. As such, this calls for a science policy vision that is long term. We herein reflect on how best to approach to policy making at this critical inflection point when DIS applications are being diversified in agriculture, ecology, marine biology, and environmental research internationally. This article outlines the key policy issues and gaps that emerged from the multidisciplinary discussions at the NSF-funded DIS workshop held at the Seattle Children's Research Institute in Seattle, on September 19-20, 2010.