Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters

Background

Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.     

FITNESS CONSEQUENCES OF MIXED-DONOR POLLEN LOADS IN THE ANNUAL LEGUME CHAMAECRISTA FASCICULATA

We experimentally examined the effects of pollen composition on progeny fitness in the self-compatible, annual plant Chamaecrista fasciculata. Plants were hand-pollinated with single- and mixed-donor pollen loads and with various combinations of self- and outcross pollen. For outcrosses, pollen was obtained from two plants at each of two different distances within the same subpopulation as the female parent. Seedlings from all crosses were planted back into the maternal site. For single-donor crosses, seed weight, progeny fruit production, and overall relative fitness were significantly higher for outcross, as compared to self-treatments, but we found no significant differences among outcross sources. For all fitness components, the value observed for crosses derived from mixed loads was intermediate between the values for the singledonor crosses that comprised the mixed load. In a parallel experiment, an analysis of seed paternity of progeny which resulted from pollen mixtures of self- and outcross pollen showed random paternity in two maternal families, and significant excess of outcross in one family. Our results demonstrate that mixed pollen loads do not confer a fitness advantage to the maternal plant in this species, and that the fitness observed for progeny derived from mixed loads is generally consistent with a hypothesis of random paternity.     

Catalytic and regulatory roles of species involved in metal–nucleotide equilibriums in human pyridoxal kinase

Pyridoxal 5′-phosphate is the active form of vitamin B₆ and its deficiency is directly related with several human disorders, which make human pyridoxal kinase (hPLK) an important pharmacologic target. In spite of this, a carefully kinetic characterization of hPLK including the main species that regulates the enzymatic activity is at date missing. Here we analyse the catalytic and regulatory mechanisms of hPLK as a function of a precise determination of the species involved in metal–nucleotide equilibriums and describe new regulatory mechanisms for this enzyme. hPLK activity is supported by several metals, being Zn²⁺ the most effective, although the magnitude of the effect observed is highly dependent on the relative concentrations of metal and nucleotide used. The true substrate for the reaction catalyzed by hPLK is the metal nucleotide complex, while ATP^4? and HATP^3? did not affect the activity. The enzyme presents substrate inhibition by both pyridoxal (PL) and ZnATP^2?, although the latter behaves as a weakly inhibitor. Our study also established, for the first time, a dual role for free Zn²⁺; as an activator at low concentrations (19 μM optimal concentration) and as a potent inhibitor with a IC₅₀ of 37 μM. These results highlighted the importance of an accurate estimation of the actual concentration of the species involved in metal–nucleotide equilibriums in order to obtain reliable values for the kinetic parameters, and for determine the true regulators of the PLK activity. They also help to explain the dissimilar kinetic parameters reported in the literature for this enzyme.     

The Down syndrome-related protein kinase DYRK1A phosphorylates p27Kip1 and Cyclin D1 and induces cell cycle exit and neuronal differentiation

A fundamental question in neurobiology is how the balance between proliferation and differentiation of neuronal precursors is maintained to ensure that the proper number of brain neurons is generated. Substantial evidence implicates DYRK1A (dual specificity tyrosine-phosphorylation-regulated kinase 1A) as a candidate gene responsible for altered neuronal development and brain abnormalities in Down syndrome. Recent findings support the hypothesis that DYRK1A is involved in cell cycle control. Nonetheless, how DYRK1A contributes to neuronal cell cycle regulation and thereby affects neurogenesis remains poorly understood. In the present study we have investigated the mechanisms by which DYRK1A affects cell cycle regulation and neuronal differentiation in a human cell model, mouse neurons, and mouse brain. Dependent on its kinase activity and correlated with the dosage of overexpression, DYRK1A blocked proliferation of SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells within 24 h and arrested the cells in G₁ phase. Sustained overexpression of DYRK1A induced G₀ cell cycle exit and neuronal differentiation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that DYRK1A modulated protein stability of cell cycle-regulatory proteins. DYRK1A reduced cellular Cyclin D1 levels by phosphorylation on Thr286, which is known to induce proteasomal degradation. In addition, DYRK1A phosphorylated p27^Kip1 on Ser10, resulting in protein stabilization. Inhibition of DYRK1A kinase activity reduced p27^Kip1 Ser10 phosphorylation in cultured hippocampal neurons and in embryonic mouse brain. In aggregate, these results suggest a novel mechanism by which overexpression of DYRK1A may promote premature neuronal differentiation and contribute to altered brain development in Down syndrome.     

Overexpression of Spry1 in chondrocytes causes attenuated FGFR ubiquitination and sustained ERK activation resulting in chondrodysplasia

The FGF signaling pathway plays essential roles in endochondral ossification by regulating osteoblast proliferation and differentiation, chondrocyte proliferation, hypertrophy, and apoptosis. FGF signaling is controlled by the complementary action of both positive and negative regulators of the signal transduction pathway. The Spry proteins are crucial regulators of receptor tyrosine kinase-mediated MAPK signaling activity. Sprys are expressed in close proximity to FGF signaling centers and regulate FGFR-ERK-mediated organogenesis. During endochondral ossification, Spry genes are expressed in prehypertrophic and hypertrophic chondrocytes. Using a conditional transgenic approach in chondrocytes in vivo, the forced expression of Spry1 resulted in neonatal lethality with accompanying skeletal abnormalities resembling thanatophoric dysplasia II, including increased apoptosis and decreased chondrocyte proliferation in the presumptive reserve and proliferating zones. In vitro chondrocyte cultures recapitulated the inhibitory effect of Spry1 on chondrocyte proliferation. In addition, overexpression of Spry1 resulted in sustained ERK activation and increased expression of p21 and STAT1. Immunoprecipitation experiments revealed that Spry1 expression in chondrocyte cultures resulted in decreased FGFR2 ubiquitination and increased FGFR2 stability. These results suggest that constitutive expression of Spry1 in chondrocytes results in attenuated FGFR2 degradation, sustained ERK activation, and up-regulation of p21Cip and STAT1 causing dysregulated chondrocyte proliferation and terminal differentiation.     

Origin and Diet of the Prehistoric Hunter-Gatherers on the Mediterranean Island of Favignana (ègadi Islands,Sicily)

Hunter-gatherers living in Europe during the transition from the late Pleistocene to the Holocene intensified food acquisition by broadening the range of resources exploited to include marine taxa. However, little is known on the nature of this dietary change in the Mediterranean Basin. A key area to investigate this issue is the archipelago of the Ègadi Islands, most of which were connected to Sicily until the early Holocene. The site of Grotta d’Oriente, on the present-day island of Favignana, was occupied by hunter-gatherers when Postglacial environmental changes were taking place (14,000-7,500 cal BP). Here we present the results of AMS radiocarbon dating, palaeogenetic and isotopic analyses undertaken on skeletal remains of the humans buried at Grotta d’Oriente. Analyses of the mitochondrial hypervariable first region of individual Oriente B, which belongs to the HV-1 haplogroup, suggest for the first time on genetic grounds that humans living in Sicily during the early Holocene could have originated from groups that migrated from the Italian Peninsula around the Last Glacial Maximum. Carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses show that the Upper Palaeolithic and Mesolithic hunter-gatherers of Favignana consumed almost exclusively protein from terrestrial game and that there was only a slight increase in marine food consumption from the late Pleistocene to the early Holocene. This dietary change was similar in scale to that at sites on mainland Sicily and in the rest of the Mediterranean, suggesting that the hunter-gatherers of Grotta d’Oriente did not modify their subsistence strategies specifically to adapt to the progressive isolation of Favignana. The limited development of technologies for intensively exploiting marine resources was probably a consequence both of Mediterranean oligotrophy and of the small effective population size of these increasingly isolated human groups, which made innovation less likely and prevented transmission of fitness-enhancing adaptations.     

Combining Immunodetection with Histochemical Techniques: The Effect of Heat-induced Antigen Retrieval on Picro-Sirius Red Staining

Picro-Sirius red is a routine diagnostic stain intended for the histological visualization of collagen fibers (fibrosis) in tissue. Multi-label immunohistochemistry is a powerful tool used by researchers to visualize different cell types and their location within a tissue specimen, and to observe co-localization of antigens. Combining the specificity of immunodetection with the simplicity of Sirius red staining will allow researchers to visualize multi-antigen detection in relation to fibrosis, a common histological feature of injury in many chronic diseases. Pre-treatment of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue (FFPE) specimens with antigen retrieval is essential for the work-up of most commercially available antibodies. The most common form of antigen retrieval involves boiling tissue specimens in buffer to break the cross-linkages caused by formalin fixation. However, this method causes tissue modification and collagen fiber shrinkage leading to suboptimal results when counterstaining for Sirius red. Reduced heat and enzymatic digestion are antigen retrieval methods compatible with Sirius red counterstaining. This paper will discuss the difficulties faced when combining these two staining methods, and provide a detailed method for the simultaneous detection of antigen and Sirius red in FFPE tissues.     

Combined ipilimumab and nivolumab first‐line and after BRAF‐targeted therapy in advanced melanoma

The combination of ipilimumab and nivolumab is a highly active systemic therapy for metastatic melanoma but can cause significant toxicity. We explore the safety and efficacy of this treatment in routine clinical practice, particularly in the setting of serine/threonine‐protein kinase B‐Raf (BRAF)‐targeted therapy. Consecutive patients with unresectable stage IIIC/IV melanoma commenced on ipilimumab and nivolumab across 10 tertiary melanoma institutions in Australia were identified retrospectively. Data collected included demographics, response and survival outcomes. A total of 152 patients were included for analysis, 39% were treatment‐naïve and 22% failed first‐line BRAF/MEK inhibitors. Treatment‐related adverse events occurred in 67% of patients, grade 3–5 in 38%. The overall objective response rate was 41%, 57% in treatment‐naïve and 21% in BRAF/MEK failure patients. Median progression‐free survival was 4.0 months (95% CI, 3.0–6.0) in the whole cohort, 11.0 months (95% CI, 6.0‐NR) in treatment‐naïve and 2.0 months (95% CI, 1.4–4.6) in BRAF/MEK failure patients. The combination of ipilimumab and nivolumab can be used safely and effectively in a real‐world population. While first‐line efficacy appears comparable to trial populations, BRAF‐mutant patients failing prior BRAF/MEK inhibitors show less response.