Mortality and aging in a heterogeneous population: a stochastic process model with observed and unobserved variables

Various multivariate stochastic process models have been developed to represent human physiological aging and mortality. These efforts are extended by considering the effects of observed and unobserved state variables on the age trajectory of physiological parameters. This is done by deriving the Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck equations describing the distribution of the unobserved state variables conditional on the history of the observed state variables. Given some assumptions, it is proved that the distribution is Gaussian. Strategies for estimating the parameters of the distribution are suggested based on an extension of the theory of Kalman filters to include systematic mortality selection. Various empirical applications of the model to studies of human aging and mortality as well as to other types of "failure" processes in heterogeneous populations are discussed.     

Evaluation of 5-(2-(4-pyridinyl)vinyl)-6-chloro-3-(1-methyl-2-(S)-pyrrolidinylmethoxy)pyridine and its analogues as PET radioligands for imaging nicotinic acetylcholine receptors

A novel series of compounds derived from the high-affinity nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR) ligand, 5-(2-(4-pyridinyl)vinyl)-6-chloro-3-((1-methyl-2-(S)-pyrrolidinyl)methoxy)pyridine (Me-p-PVC), originally developed by Abbott Laboratories, was characterized in vitro in nAChR binding assays at 37 degrees C to show K(i) values in the range of 9-611 pm. Several compounds of this series were radiolabeled with (11)C and evaluated in vivo in mice and monkeys as potential candidates for PET imaging of nAChRs. [(11)C]Me-p-PVC (K(i) =56 pm at 37 degrees C; logD = 1.6) was identified as a radioligand suitable for the in vivo imaging of the alpha 4 beta 2* nAChR subtype. Compared with 2-[(18)F]FA, a PET radioligand that has been successfully used in humans and is characterized by a slow kinetic of brain distribution, [(11)C]Me-p-PVC is more lipophilic. As a result, [(11)C]Me-p-PVC accumulated in the brain more rapidly than 2-[(18)F]FA. Pharmacological evaluation of Me-p-PVC in mice demonstrated that the toxicity of this compound was comparable with or lower than that of 2-FA. Taken together, these results suggest that [(11)C]Me-p-PVC is a promising PET radioligand for studying nAChR occupancy by endogenous and exogenous ligands in the brain in vivo.     

Tooth cementum annulation for age estimation: results from a large known-age validation study

Recent research indicates that tooth-cementum annulations (TCA) may be used more reliably than other morphological or histological traits of the adult skeleton to estimate age. Until now, however, confidence intervals for age estimated by this method have not been available for paleodemographic and forensic applications. The present study addresses this problem. Based on a large known-age sample, age estimates by TCA were conducted in a blind study involving 363 teeth. Tooth-root cross sections were made using a refined preparation technique. Improved digital graphic procedures and enhancement strategies were used to produce digital images with a specially adapted software package. This resulted in high concordance between the TCA age estimates and chronological age. Assessment of the method's accuracy, as expressed by 95% confidence intervals, showed that error bounds for age estimates do not exceed 2.5 years. Sex differences, intraindividual correlations, and the effects of periodontal disease were studied. None of these indicators had a quantitative effect on the number of TCA bands when the proposed methodological standard was followed. We conclude that the TCA technique is a reliable method for estimating a subject's age from cementum annulations.     

In vitro and in vivo characterization of a novel,highly potent p53-MDM2 inhibitor

Small molecule inhibitors of the p53-MDM2 protein complex are under intense investigation in clinical trials as anti-cancer agents, including our first generation inhibitor NVP-CGM097. We recently described the rational design of a novel pyrazolopyrrolidinone core as a new lead structure and now we report on the synthesis and optimization of this to provide a highly potent lead compound. This new compound displayed excellent oral efficacy in our preclinical mechanistic in vivo model and marked a significant milestone towards the identification of our second generation clinical candidate NVP-HDM201.     

The heritability of human longevity: A population-based study of 2872 Danish twin pairs born 1870–1900

The aim of this study was to explore, in a large and non-censored twin cohort, the nature (i.e., additive versus non-additive) and magnitude (i.e., heritability) of genetic influences on inter-individual differences in human longevity. The sample comprised all identified and traced non-emigrant like-sex twin pairs born in Denmark during the period 1870–1900 with a zygosity diagnosis and both members of the pairs surviving the age of 15 years. A total of 2872 pairs were included. Age at death was obtained from the Danish Central Person Register, the Danish Cause-of-Death Register and various other registers. The sample was almost non-censored on the date of the last follow-up (May 1, 1994), all but 0.6% had died, leaving a total of 2872 pairs for analysis. Proportions of variance attributable to genetic and environmental factors were assessed from variance-covariance matrices using the structural equation model approach. The most parsimonious explanation of the data was provided by a model that included genetic dominance (non-additive genetic effects caused by interaction within gene loci) and non-shared environmental factors (environmental factors that are individual-specific and not shared in a family). The heritability of longevity was estimated to be 0.26 for males and 0.23 for females. The small sex-difference was caused by a greater impact of non-shared environmental factors in the females. Heritability was found to be constant over the three 10-year birth cohorts included. Thus, longevity seems to be only moderately heritable. The nature of genetic influences on longevity is probably non-additive and environmental influences non-shared. There is no evidence for an impact of shared (family) environment.     

Effects of pentobarbital anesthesia on the energy metabolism of murine tumors studied by in vivo 31P nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy

The effects of pentobarbital anesthesia on the energy metabolism of FSaII and MCaIV foot tumors in mice were studied by 31P MRS. Using an 8.5 T spectrometer, in vivo spectra were obtained in 15 animals before and after pentobarbital anesthesia (0.05 mg/g ip). The average phosphocreatine/inorganic phosphate ratios (PCr/Pi) with and without pentobarbital were similar for both tumor histologies. Effects on individual tumors, however, were greater than 20% in 9/15 animals and greater than 50% in 6/15 animals. Pentobarbital anesthesia increased the variability of tumor intracellular pH, and the phosphomonoester/nucleotide triphosphate (PME/NTP) and nucleotide triphosphate/inorganic phosphate ratios (NTP/Pi). When examining the average in a cohort, pentobarbital anesthesia had no significant effect on the PCr/Pi, PME/NTP, NTP/Pi ratios or the pH. However, approximately equal to 50% of individual tumors do have significant changes in these parameters. The anesthesia-induced variability of tumor energy metabolism may explain the decrease in TCD50 observed in previous studies using multifraction radiation.     

Statistical properties of the variation at linked microsatellite loci: implications for the history of human Y chromosomes [published erratum appears in Mol Biol Evol 1997 Mar;14(3):354]

It has recently been suggested that observed levels of variation at microsatellite loci can be used to infer patterns of selection in genomes and to assess demographic history. In order to evaluate the feasibility of these suggestions it is necessary to know something about how levels of variation at microsatellite loci are expected to fluctuate due simply to stochasticity in the processes of mutation and inheritance (genetic sampling). Here we use recently derived properties of the stepwise mutation model to place confidence intervals around the variance in repeat score that is expected at mutation-drift equilibrium and outline a statistical test for whether an observed value differs significantly from expectation. We also develop confidence intervals for the time course of the buildup of variation following a complete elimination of variation, such as might be caused by a selective sweep or an extreme population bottleneck. We apply these methods to the variation observed at human Y-specific microsatellites. Although a number of authors have suggested the possibility of a very recent sweep, our analyses suggest that a sweep or extreme bottleneck is unlikely to have occurred anytime during the last approximately 74,000 years. To generate this result we use a recently estimated mutation rate for microsatellite loci of 5.6 x 10(-4) along with the variation observed at autosomal microsatellite loci to estimate the human effective population size. This estimate is 18,000, implying an effective number of 4,500 Y chromosomes. One important general conclusion to emerge from this study is that in order to reject mutation-drift equilibrium at a set of linked microsatellite loci it is necessary to have an unreasonably large number of loci unless the observed variance is far below that expected at mutation-drift equilibrium.      

Multimarker scores of Th1 and Th2 immune cellular profiles in peripheral blood predict response and immune related toxicity with CTLA4 blockade and IFNα in melanoma

Neoadjuvant therapy with ipilimumab in combination with high dose IFNα was evaluated in patients with locally/regionally advanced melanoma in a previously reported clinical trial [NCT01608594]. In this study, peripheral immune cell profiling was performed in order to investigate the underlying mechanisms of tumor immune susceptibility and resistance. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from treated patients (N = 28) were collected at baseline and then at 6-weeks, 3-months and 12-months. High complexity (14-color) flow cytometry, designed to detect key immunological biomarkers was used to evaluate the frequencies of immune cell subsets. Statistical significance was determined using R-package employing Kruskal's test. We found that higher levels of Th1 cells at baseline (defined as CD45RA- CCR6- CXCR3+ CCR4-) correlated with the preoperative radiological response (p = 0.007) while higher Th2 cells (defined as CD45RA- CCR6- CXCR3- CCR4+) were associated with progressive disease (p = 0.009). A multimarker score consisting of higher levels of Th1 cells and CD8+ central memory T-cells was associated with pathologic complete response (pCR) (p = 0.041) at surgical resection. On the other hand, high TIM3 expression on T-cells correlated with gross viable tumor (p = 0.047). With regard to immune related toxicity, higher levels of phenotypically naive (defined as CCR7+CD45RA+) and effector memory (defined as CCR7-CD45RO+) CD8+ T-cells (p = 0.014) or lower levels of Th2 cells were associated with lower toxicity (p = 0.024). Furthermore, a multimarker score consisting of higher CD19+ and CD8+ cells was associated with lower toxicity (p = 0.0014). In conclusion, our study yielded mechanistic insights related to the immune impact of CTLA4 blockade and IFNα and potential biomarkers of immune response and toxicity.