Reef‐coral refugia in a rapidly changing ocean

This study sought to identify climate‐change thermal‐stress refugia for reef corals in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A species distribution modeling approach was used to identify refugia for 12 coral species that differed considerably in their local response to thermal stress. We hypothesized that the local response of coral species to thermal stress might be similarly reflected as a regional response to climate change. We assessed the contemporary geographic range of each species and determined their temperature and irradiance preferences using a k‐fold algorithm to randomly select training and evaluation sites. That information was applied to downscaled outputs of global climate models to predict where each species is likely to exist by the year 2100. Our model was run with and without a 1 °C capacity to adapt to the rising ocean temperature. The results show a positive exponential relationship between the current area of habitat that coral species occupy and the predicted area of habitat that they will occupy by 2100. There was considerable decoupling between scales of response, however, and with further ocean warming some ‘winners’ at local scales will likely become ‘losers’ at regional scales. We predicted that nine of the 12 species examined will lose 24–50% of their current habitat. Most reductions are predicted to occur between the latitudes 5–15°, in both hemispheres. Yet when we modeled a 1 °C capacity to adapt, two ubiquitous species, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora digitifera, were predicted to retain much of their current habitat. By contrast, the thermally tolerant Porites lobata is expected to increase its current distribution by 14%, particularly southward along the east and west coasts of Australia. Five areas were identified as Indian Ocean refugia, and seven areas were identified as Pacific Ocean refugia for reef corals under climate change. All 12 of these reef‐coral refugia deserve high‐conservation status.     

Discovery and optimization of a series of quinazolinone-derived antagonists of CXCR3

A series of quinazolinone-derived inhibitors of the CXCR3 receptor have been synthesized and their affinity for the receptor evaluated. Compounds were evaluated in a (125)I-IP10 displacement assay and in in vitro cell migration assays to IP10, ITAC, and MIG using human peripheral blood mononuclear cells.     

Sensitivity of three grassland communities to simulated extreme temperature and rainfall events

Three grassland communities in New Zealand with differing climates and proportions of C3 and C4 species were subjected to one‐off extreme heating (eight hours at 52.5°C) and rainfall (the equivalent of 100 mm) events. A novel experimental technique using portable computer‐controlled chambers simulated the extreme heating events. The productive, moist C3/C4 community was the most sensitive to the extreme events in terms of short‐term community composition compared with a dry C3/C4 community or an exclusively C3 community. An extreme heating event caused the greatest change to plant community species abundance by favouring the expansion of C4 species relative to C3 species, shifting C4 species abundance from 43% up to 84% at the productive, moist site. This was observed both in the presence and absence of added water. In the absence of C4 species, heating reduced community productivity by over 60%. The short‐term shifts in the abundance of C3 and C4 species in response to the single extreme climatic events did not have persistent effects on community structure or on soil nitrogen one year later. There was no consistent relationship between diversity and stability of biomass production of these plant communities, and species functional identity was the most effective explanation for the observed shifts in biomass production. The presence of C4 species resulted in an increased stability of productivity after extreme climatic events, but resulted in greater overall shifts in community composition. The presence of C4 species may buffer grassland community productivity against an increased frequency of extreme heating events associated with future global climate change.     

Sugar Sweetened Beverages and Weight Gain over 4 Years in a Thai National Cohort – A Prospective Analysis

Introduction

Sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) are implicated in the rising prevalence of obesity and diet-related chronic diseases worldwide. However, little is known about their contribution to weight gain in Asian populations. This study aimed to investigate weight change associated with SSB consumption between 2005 and 2009 in a large national cohort of Thai university students.

Methods

Questionnaire data were collected from a large Thai cohort (the Thai Health-Risk Transition: a National Cohort Study). The analysis was based on responses from 59 283 of the 60 569 (98%) cohort members who had valid SSB consumption and weight variables in 2005 and 2009. The relationship between SSB consumption in 2005 and self-reported weight change was analysed using multiple linear regression models controlled for socio-demographic, activity and (non-validated) dietary factors shown to influence weight.

Results

Higher frequency of SSB consumption in 2005 was significantly associated with greater weight gain between 2005 and 2009 in all age groups and in both sexes (p<0.0001); persons who consumed SSBs at least once a day in 2005 gained 0.5 kg more than those who consumed SSBs less than once a month. The estimated weight gain for the average person in the sample was 1.9 kg (95% C I 1.95–1.96). The difference in weight gain between those who increased their consumption frequency (<once a month to > once per day) between 2005 and 2009 compared to those who maintained it was 0.3 kgs, while persons who reduced their consumption frequency (once a day to > once a month) gained 0.2 kgs less than those whose consumption remained unchanged.

Conclusion

SSB consumption is independently associated with weight gain in the Thai population. Research and health promotion in Thailand and other economically transitioning countries should focus on reducing their contribution to population weight gain and to diet-related chronic diseases.     

The comparison of the confidence regions in phylogeny

In this paper, several different procedures for constructing confidence regions for the true evolutionary tree are evaluated both in terms of coverage and size without considering model misspecification. The regions are constructed on the basis of tests of hypothesis using six existing tests: Shimodaira Hasegawa (SH), SOWH, star form of SOWH (SSOWH), approximately unbiased (AU), likelihood weight (LW), generalized least squares, plus two new tests proposed in this paper: single distribution nonparametric bootstrap (SDNB) and single distribution parametric bootstrap (SDPB). The procedures are evaluated on simulated trees both with small and large number of taxa. Overall, the SH, SSOWH, AU, and LW tests led to regions with higher coverage than the nominal level at the price of including large numbers of trees. Under the specified model, the SOWH test gives accurate coverage and relatively small regions. The SDNB and SDPB tests led to the small regions with occasional undercoverage. These two procedures have a substantial computational advantage over the SOWH test. Finally, the cutoff levels for the SDNB test are shown to be more variable than those for the SDPB test.     

Induction of Shiga Toxin-Converting Prophage in Escherichia coli by High Hydrostatic Pressure

Since high hydrostatic pressure is becoming increasingly important in modern food preservation, its potential effects on microorganisms need to be thoroughly investigated. In this context, mild pressures (<200 MPa) have recently been shown to induce an SOS response in Escherichia coli MG1655. Due to this response, we observed a RecA- and LexA-dependent induction of lambda prophage upon treating E. coli lysogens with sublethal pressures. In this report, we extend this observation to lambdoid Shiga toxin (Stx)-converting bacteriophages in MG1655, which constitute an important virulence trait in Stx-producing E. coli strains (STEC). The window of pressures capable of inducing Stx phages correlated well with the window of bacterial survival. When pressure treatments were conducted in whole milk, which is known to promote bacterial survival, Stx phage induction could be observed at up to 250 MPa in E. coli MG1655 and at up to 300 MPa in a pressure-resistant mutant of this strain. In addition, we found that the intrinsic pressure resistance of two types of Stx phages was very different, with one type surviving relatively well treatments of up to 400 MPa for 15 min at 20°C. Interestingly, and in contrast to UV irradiation or mitomycin C treatment, pressure was not able to induce Stx prophage or an SOS response in several natural Stx-producing STEC isolates.     

Extent of industrial plantations on Southeast Asian peatlands in 2010 with analysis of historical expansion and future projections

Tropical peatlands cover over 25 Mha in Southeast Asia and are estimated to contain around 70 Gt of carbon. Peat swamp forest ecosystems are an important part of the region's natural resources supporting unique flora and fauna endemic to Southeast Asia. Over recent years, industrial plantation development on peatland, especially for oil palm cultivation, has created intense debate due to its potentially adverse social and environmental effects. The lack of objective up‐to‐date information on the extent of industrial plantations has complicated quantification of their regional and global environmental consequences, both in terms of loss of forest and biodiversity as well as increases in carbon emissions. Based on visual interpretation of high‐resolution (30 m) satellite images, we find that industrial plantations covered over 3.1 Mha (20%) of the peatlands of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2010, surpassing the area of Belgium and causing an annual carbon emission from peat decomposition of 230–310 Mt CO_2e. The majority (62%) of the plantations were located on the island of Sumatra, and over two‐thirds (69%) of all industrial plantations were developed for oil palm cultivation, with the remainder mostly being Acacia plantations for paper pulp production. Historical analysis shows strong acceleration of plantation development in recent years: 70% of all industrial plantations have been established since 2000 and only 4% of the current plantation area existed in 1990. ‘Business‐as‐usual’ projections of future conversion rates, based on historical rates over the past two decades, indicate that 6–9 Mha of peatland in insular Southeast Asia may be converted to plantations by the year 2020, unless land use planning policies or markets for products change. This would increase the annual carbon emission to somewhere between 380 and 920 Mt CO_2e by 2020 depending on water management practices and the extent of plantations.     

The Polyfunctionality of Human Memory CD8+ T Cells Elicited by Acute and Chronic Virus Infections Is Not Influenced by Age

As humans age, they experience a progressive loss of thymic function and a corresponding shift in the makeup of the circulating CD8+ T cell population from naïve to memory phenotype. These alterations are believed to result in impaired CD8+ T cell responses in older individuals; however, evidence that these global changes impact virus-specific CD8+ T cell immunity in the elderly is lacking. To gain further insight into the functionality of virus-specific CD8+ T cells in older individuals, we interrogated a cohort of individuals who were acutely infected with West Nile virus (WNV) and chronically infected with Epstein Barr virus (EBV) and Cytomegalovirus (CMV). The cohort was stratified into young (<40 yrs), middle-aged (41–59 yrs) and aged (>60 yrs) groups. In the aged cohort, the CD8+ T cell compartment displayed a marked reduction in the frequency of naïve CD8+ T cells and increased frequencies of CD8+ T cells that expressed CD57 and lacked CD28, as previously described. However, we did not observe an influence of age on either the frequency of virus-specific CD8+ T cells within the circulating pool nor their functionality (based on the production of IFNγ, TNFα, IL2, Granzyme B, Perforin and mobilization of CD107a). We did note that CD8+ T cells specific for WNV, CMV or EBV displayed distinct functional profiles, but these differences were unrelated to age. Collectively, these data fail to support the hypothesis that immunosenescence leads to defective CD8+ T cell immunity and suggest that it should be possible to develop CD8+ T cell vaccines to protect aged individuals from infections with novel emerging viruses.