A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

Changes in climate projected for the 21^st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21^st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.     

Topographic,latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid‐latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low‐elevation stands occupy north‐facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high‐elevation stands grow on more south‐facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low‐lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.     

Brittle ductile transition in carbon nanotube bundles

The superior strength and stiffness of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) make them attractive for many structural applications. Although the strength and stiffness of CNTs are extremely high, fibres of aligned CNTs have been found to date to be far weaker than the constituent CNTs. The intermolecular interactions between the CNTs in the fibres are governed by weak van der Waals forces, resulting in slippage between CNTs which occurs at tensions well below the breaking strength of the CNTs. Both theoretical and experimental studies show that by introducing chemical bonds between the CNTs increases load transfer and prevents the CNTs from slipping.     

Human ESC-Derived Chimeric Mouse Models of Huntington’s Disease Reveal Cell-Intrinsic Defects in Glial Progenitor Cell Differentiation

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Derivation and feeder-free propagation of human embryonic stem cells under xeno-free conditions

BACKGROUND AIMS: Human embryonic stem (hES) cells hold great potential for cell therapy and regenerative medicine because of their pluripotency and capacity for self-renewal. The conditions used to derive and culture hES cells vary between and within laboratories depending on the desired use of the cells. Until recently, stem cell culture has been carried out using feeder cells, and culture media, that contain animal products. Recent advances in technology have opened up the possibility of both xeno-free and feeder-free culture of stem cells, essential conditions for the use of stem cells for clinical purposes. To date, however, there has been limited success in achieving this aim. METHODS, RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Protocols were developed for the successful derivation of two normal and three specific mutation-carrying (SMC) (Huntington's disease and myotonic dystrophy 1) genomically stable hES cell lines, and their adaptation to feeder-free culture, all under xeno-free conditions.     

Derivation and propagation of human embryonic stem cell lines from frozen embryos in an animal product-free environment

The protocols described here are comprehensive instructions for deriving human embryonic stem (hES) cell lines in xeno-free conditions from cryopreserved embryos. Details are included for propagation, cryopreservation and characterization. Initial derivation is on feeder cells and is followed by adaptation to a feeder-free environment; competent technicians can perform these simplified methods easily. From derivation to cryopreservation of fully characterized initial stocks takes 3-4 months. These protocols served as the basis for standard operating procedures (SOPs), with both operational and technical components, that we set to meet good manufacturing practice (GMP) and UK regulatory body requirements for derivation of clinical-grade cells. As such, these SOPs are currently used in our current GMP compliant facility to derive hES cell lines ab initio, in an animal product-free environment; these lines are suitable for research and potentially for clinical use in cell therapy. So far, we have derived eight clinical-grade lines, which will be freely available to the scientific community after submission/accession to the UK Stem Cell Bank.     

Decreased expression of pigment epithelium derived factor (PEDF), an inhibitor of angiogenesis, in placentas of unexplained stillbirths

Normal placental vascular development depends upon the complex interactions between angiogenic inducers and inhibitors within the placenta. Alterations within the placental microenvironment can promote an imbalance in angiogenic mediators which may be associated with adverse perinatal outcomes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the placentas of infants with unexplained stillbirth as compared to live-born infants and to determine whether alterations in angiogenic inducer vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) or inhibitor pigment epithelium-derived factor (PEDF) are associated with altered angiogenesis, vascular remodeling and stillbirth. Placentas of 22 unexplained stillbirths and 44 age-matched live-born controls were scored for microvascular density (MVD), vasculopathy and microvascular permeability. A subset was scored for expression of angiogenic inducer VEGF and inhibitor pigment epithelium-derived factor. Stillborn placentas demonstrated higher MVD than controls (mean+SD: 116.6+/-46.3 v. 60.8+/-13.5, respectively, p<0.001). Vasculopathy was present in 10/22 (45%) stillbirths compared to 0/44 (0%) controls (p<0.001); increased vascular permeability was present in 15/22 (68%) cases and 5/44 (11%) controls (p<0.001). PEDF expression was significantly lower in stillborn placentas (1.7+/-0.3) than live-born controls (3.6+/-0.8, p<0.01) while VEGF expression was similar (3.3+/-0.7 v. 3.7+/-0.4, respectively, p>0.05). In conclusion, we found that unexplained stillbirth is associated with loss of angiogenic inhibitor PEDF, vasculopathy and heightened angiogenesis in the placenta.     

Lichens buffer tundra microclimate more than the expanding shrub Betula nana

Background and AimsIn tundra systems, soil-borne lichens are often the dominant groundcover organisms, and act to buffer microclimate extremes within or at the surface of the soil. However, shrubs are currently expanding across tundra systems, potentially causing major shifts in the microclimate landscape.MethodsHere, we compared soil temperature and moisture underneath the dwarf birch Betula nana and seven abundant lichen species in sub-alpine Norway. We also examined mixtures of lichens and dwarf birch – an intermediate phase of shrubification – and measured several functional traits relating to microclimate.Key ResultsWe found that all lichen species strongly buffered the daily temperature range, on average reducing maximum temperatures by 6.9 °C (± 0.7 s.d.) and increasing minimum temperatures by 1.0 °C (± 0.2 s.d.) during summer. The dwarf birch had a much weaker effect (maximum reduced by 2.4 ± 5.0 °C and minimum raised by 0.2 ± 0.9 °C). In species mixtures, the lichen effect predominated, affecting temperature extremes by more than would be expected from their abundance. Lichens also tended to reduce soil moisture, which could be explained by their ability to intercept rainfall. Our trait measurements under laboratory conditions suggest that, on average, lichens can completely absorb a 4.09 mm (± 1.81 s.d.) rainfall event, which might be an underappreciated part of lichen–vascular plant competition in areas where summer rainfall events are small.ConclusionsIn the context of shrubification across tundra systems, our findings suggest that lichens will continue to have a large effect on microclimate until they are fully excluded, at which point microclimate extremes will increase greatly.