Predictive systems ecology

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.     

Air-Stimulated ATP Release from Keratinocytes Occurs through Connexin Hemichannels

Cutaneous ATP release plays an important role in both epidermal stratification and chronic pain, but little is known about ATP release mechanisms in keratinocytes that comprise the epidermis. In this study, we analyzed ATP release from cultured human neonatal keratinocytes briefly exposed to air, a process previously demonstrated to trigger ATP release from these cells. We show that exposing keratinocytes to air by removing media for 15 seconds causes a robust, long-lasting ATP release. This air-stimulated ATP release was increased in calcium differentiated cultures which showed a corresponding increase in connexin 43 mRNA, a major component of keratinocyte hemichannels. The known connexin hemichannel inhibitors 1-octanol and carbenoxolone both significantly reduced air-stimulated ATP release, as did two drugs traditionally used as ABC transporter inhibitors (glibenclamide and verapamil). These same 4 inhibitors also prevented an increase in the uptake of a connexin permeable dye induced by air exposure, confirming that connexin hemichannels are open during air-stimulated ATP release. In contrast, activity of the MDR1 ABC transporter was reduced by air exposure and the drugs that inhibited air-stimulated ATP release had differential effects on this transporter. These results indicate that air exposure elicits non-vesicular release of ATP from keratinocytes through connexin hemichannels and that drugs used to target connexin hemichannels and ABC transporters may cross-inhibit. Connexins represent a novel, peripheral target for the treatment of chronic pain and dermatological disease.     

Identification of a Novel Human Papillomavirus by Metagenomic Analysis of Samples from Patients with Febrile Respiratory Illness

As part of a virus discovery investigation using a metagenomic approach, a highly divergent novel Human papillomavirus type was identified in pooled convenience nasal/oropharyngeal swab samples collected from patients with febrile respiratory illness. Phylogenetic analysis of the whole genome and the L1 gene reveals that the new HPV identified in this study clusters with previously described gamma papillomaviruses, sharing only 61.1% (whole genome) and 63.1% (L1) sequence identity with its closest relative in the Papillomavirus episteme (PAVE) database. This new virus was named HPV_SD2 pending official classification. The complete genome of HPV-SD2 is 7,299 bp long (36.3% G/C) and contains 7 open reading frames (L2, L1, E6, E7, E1, E2 and E4) and a non-coding long control region (LCR) between L1 and E6. The metagenomic procedures, coupled with the bioinformatic methods described herein are well suited to detect small circular genomes such as those of human papillomaviruses.     

New derivatives from the aerial parts of Boerhaavia diffusa L. (Nyctaginaceae)

Boerhaavia diffusa L. is used in the traditional medicine of several Asian countries. The isolation and identification of five new compounds, together with 11 known compounds, from the ethyl acetate extract of the aerial part of B. diffusa grown Vietnam is reported. The structure of the new compounds was established by 1D and 2D NMR spectroscopy, and high resolution ESI-MS analysis. New compounds are two rotenoids: 9,11-dihydroxy-6,10-dimethoxy[1]benzopyrano[3,4-b][1]benzopyran-12(6H)-one (boeravinone P, 3) and 3-[2-(β-d-glucopyranosyloxy)-3-hydroxyphenyl]-5-hydroxy-2-hydroxymethyl-7-methoxy-6-methyl-4H-1-benzopyran-4-one (boeravinone Q, 9), an atropisomeric mixture of two rotenoid glycosides (3′,5-dihydroxy-2-hydroxymethyl-7-methoxy-6-methylisoflavone 2′-O-β-d-glucopyranoside, 11), a sesquiterpene lactone (4,10-dihydroxy-8-methoxyguai-7(11)-en-8,12-olide, 5) and a new phenylpropanoid glycoside (boerhaavic acid, 15).     

Case-control study of birth characteristics and the risk of hepatoblastoma

Background: Hepatoblastoma is a malignant embryonal tumor typically diagnosed in children younger than five years of age. Little is known on hepatoblastoma etiology. Methods: We matched California Cancer Registry records of hepatoblastomas diagnosed in children younger than age 6 from 1988 to 2007 to birth records using a probabilistic record linkage program, yielding 261 cases. Controls (n = 218,277), frequency matched by birth year to all cancer cases in California for the same time period, were randomly selected from California birth records. We examined demographic and socioeconomic information, birth characteristics, pregnancy history, complications in pregnancy, labor and delivery, and abnormal conditions and clinical procedures relating to the newborn, with study data taken from birth certificates. Results: We observed increased risks for hepatoblastoma among children with low [1500–2499 g, Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29–3.15] and very low birthweight (<1500 g, OR = 15.4, 95% CI 10.7–22.3), preterm birth <33 weeks (OR = 7.27, 95% CI 5.00, 10.6), small size for gestational age (OR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.25–2.45), and with multiple birth pregnancies (OR = 2.52, 95% CI 1.54–4.14). We observed a number of pregnancy and labor complications to be related to hepatoblastoma, including preeclampsia, premature labor, fetal distress, and congenital anomalies. Conclusion: These findings confirm previously reported associations with low birthweight and preeclampsia. The relation with multiple birth pregnancies has been previously reported and may indicate a relation to infertility treatments.     

Paroxysmal and cognitive phenotypes in Prrt2 mutant mice

Mutations in proline‐rich transmembrane protein 2 (PRRT2) cause a range of episodic disorders that include paroxysmal kinesigenic dyskinesia and benign familial infantile epilepsy. Mutations are generally loss of function and include the c649dupC frameshifting mutation that is present in around 80% of affected individuals. To investigate how Prrt2 loss of function mutations causes disease, we performed a phenotypic investigation of a transgenic Prrt2 knockout (Prrt2 KO) mouse. We observed spontaneous paroxysmal episodes with behavioural features of both seizure and movement disorders, as well as unexplained deaths in KO and HET animals. KO mice showed spatial learning deficits in the Morris water maze, as well as gait abnormalities in the quantitative Digigait analysis; both of which may be representative of the more severe phenotypes experienced by homozygous patients. These findings extend the described phenotypes of Prrt2 mutant mice, further confirming their utility for in vivo investigation of the role of Prrt2 mutations in episodic diseases.     

An image-based method to measure joint deformity in inflammatory arthritis: development and pilot study

Quantifying joint deformity in people with rheumatoid (RA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) remains challenging. Here, we demonstrate a new method to measure bone erosions and abnormal periosteal growths, based on the difference between a predicted healthy and actual diseased joint surface. We optimized the method by creating and measuring artificial bone erosions and growths. Then we measured 46 healthy and diseased patient surfaces. We found average sensitivity errors of ≤0.27?mm when measuring artificial erosions and growths. Patients had significantly more bone erosion than healthy subjects. Surface based outcomes are a novel way to interpret and quantify bone changes in PsA and RA.     

The effects of food level and social density on reproduction in the Least Killifish,Heterandria formosa

The feedbacks from population density to demographic parameters, which drive population regulation, are the accumulated results of several ecological processes. The compensatory feedback from increased population density to fertility includes at least two distinct factors, the effects of decreases in per capita food level and increases in the social density (the number of interacting individuals). Because these effects have been studied separately, their relative importance is unknown. It is also unclear whether food limitation and social density combine additively to influence fertility. We investigated these questions with two factorial experiments on reproduction in the Least Killifish, Heterandria formosa. In one experiment, we crossed two levels of density with two levels of a total food ration that was distributed to all individuals. In the other experiment, we crossed two levels of density with two levels of per capita food. Whereas the first experiment suggested that the effects of variation in food level and density were synergistic, the second experiment indicated that they were not. The apparent synergism—the statistical interaction of food and density levels—was the result of confounding per capita food with social density in that design. In the second experiment, the effects of social density on reproductive rate were stronger than the effects of food level, whereas the effects of food level were stronger on offspring size at parturition than those of social density. The results suggest that the social stresses that emerge at higher densities play an important role in the compensatory response of fertility to density, a role, that is, at least as important as that of decreased per capita food levels.