Fuzzy evidence theory and Bayesian networks for process systems risk analysis

Abstract

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) approaches systematically evaluate the likelihood, impacts, and risk of adverse events. QRA using fault tree analysis (FTA) is based on the assumptions that failure events have crisp probabilities and they are statistically independent. The crisp probabilities of the events are often absent, which leads to data uncertainty. However, the independence assumption leads to model uncertainty. Experts’ knowledge can be utilized to obtain unknown failure data; however, this process itself is subject to different issues such as imprecision, incompleteness, and lack of consensus. For this reason, to minimize the overall uncertainty in QRA, in addition to addressing the uncertainties in the knowledge, it is equally important to combine the opinions of multiple experts and update prior beliefs based on new evidence. In this article, a novel methodology is proposed for QRA by combining fuzzy set theory and evidence theory with Bayesian networks to describe the uncertainties, aggregate experts’ opinions, and update prior probabilities when new evidences become available. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most critical events in the FTA. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been demonstrated via application to a practical system.     

Genetically engineered phage harbouring the lethal catabolite gene activator protein gene with an inducer-independent promoter for biocontrol of Escherichia coli

Complications of chemotherapy, such as appearance of multidrug resistance, have persuaded researchers to consider phage therapy as a new method to combat bacterial infections. In vitro experiments were performed to assess the therapeutic value of genetically modified phages for controlling gastrointestinal Escherichia coli O157:H7 cells in Luria–Bertani (LB) media and contaminated cow milk. We constructed a modified nonreplicating M13-derived phage expressing a lethal catabolite gene activator protein (CAP) that is a Glu181Gln mutant of CAP. The modified phagemid was propagated in the lethal CAP-resistant strain XA3DII. Time–kill assay experiments showed a considerable reduction in the number of surviving bacteria in both LB media and contaminated cow milk. Our further study using other test strains demonstrated that the host range of lethal phage is limited to E. coli strains that produce pili. This study provides a possible strategy for the exploitation of genetically engineered nonlytic phages as bactericidal agents by minimizing the risk of release of progeny phages and endotoxins into the environment. The phage was engineered to remain lethal to its bacterial target, but incapable of replicating therein. Furthermore, the addition of an inducer to express the lethal protein is not required.     

Cellulase production by Neurospora crassa: purification and characterization of cellulolytic enzymes.

In studies on cellulase production by the cell-1 mutant of Neurospora crassa, eight enzymes (three exoglucanases, four endoglucanases, and one beta-glucosidase) were identified and characterized by gel filtration, ion exchange chromatography, and chromatofocusing. After purification, each of the proteins ran as a single band in polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, using both native and denaturing gels. The molecular weights of the proteins were found to be between 70,000 and 22,000 daltons, and all were glycosylated, with carbohydrate contents ranging between 5.6% and 36%.     

A locust witness of a trans-oceanic Oligocene migration between Arabia and Iran (Orthoptera: Acrididae)

Fossil insects are very rarely found in sediments of deep marine origin. Nevertheless they can be of great interest to trace past events such as trans-oceanic migrations. Here we document the first fossil insects from Iran, viz. several alate ants dead during mating swarms and a migratory locust, found in the pelagic Oligocene sediments of the Zagros Mountains. This locust represents the first putative indication of insect migrations between the Arabian-African and Asiatic continents through the Parathetys, probably in relation with the development of open grassland biotas in these areas.     

Siliciclastic input and sedimentation rate as controls on paleoecological distribution of Lower Miocene benthic carbonate producers in a fan–delta: Zagros foreland basin,Iran

This paper aimed to study Lower Miocene (Burdigalian) mixed carbonate–siliciclastic deposits within an Upper Cenozoic synorogenic conglomerate–dominated succession in north of Shalamzar in the Zagros foreland basin, Iran. The deposits are composed of nine facies: foraminiferal mudstone, silty mudstone, sandy mudstone, fossiliferous sandy mudstone, fossiliferous argillaceous mudstone, fossiliferous calclithite, coral limestone, calcareous claystone and hybrid sandstone. The facies represent a mixed carbonate– siliciclastic shelf–type fan–delta. The subenvironments of the fan–delta include muddy pro–delta, sandy delta– front, clastic proximal mouth bar and a subordinate delta plain. Siliciclastic input and sedimentation rate controlled the paleoecological distribution of different benthic carbonate–producing fauna in the fan–delta during its progradation into a shelf marine environment. Input of siliciclastic deposits and sedimentation rate limited the diversity and development of corals and controlled their colonization and growth morphologies in the sandy delta–front. Siliciclastic input (including plant materials and coal debris) and sedimentation rate controlled the trophic habitats of many gastropods and their abundance and distribution in the sandy delta– front and clastic proximal mouth bar. Also, increased siliciclastic input favored abundance of larger benthic foraminifera in most parts of the fan–delta with the exception of the muddy pro–delta.     

Thoracic fine needle aspiration biopsy versus fine needle cutting biopsy. A comparative study of 40 patients

The fine needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy findings were compared with the results of fine needle cutting (FNC) biopsy in 40 patients. The lesions (38 pulmonary nodules, 1 mediastinal mass and one lytic rib lesion) were biopsied with 22-gauge Greene and 21-gauge E-Z-EM needles through a 19-gauge needle guide. The FNA biopsy findings were based on smears and cell blocks of material obtained with the Greene needles while the FNC biopsy findings were based on tissue cores obtained by the E-Z-EM needles. In 83% of the cases, both techniques yielded specimens with similar cellularity; in seven cases, the FNA samples were more cellular. Malignancy was diagnosed in 80% of the patients: by both techniques in 26 patients, by FNA biopsy only in 5 patients and by FNC biopsy only in 1 patient. The sensitivity of FNA biopsy was higher than that of FNC biopsy (96.8% vs. 84.3%). The specificity and predictive value of positive results were 100% for both techniques. The predictive value of negative results was higher for FNA biopsy (88.8% vs. 54.5%). The majority of FNC biopsy tissue cores consisted mostly of clotted blood, lung tissue and/or fibrous tissue and did not facilitate or improve the diagnosis. Those data suggest that the contribution of FNC biopsy to the diagnosis of thoracic neoplasms is very limited and that the performance of FNC biopsy with an E-Z-EM needle in addition to or instead of FNA biopsy is not justified.     

Effect of β-Cyclodextrin Nanoparticle on Biosynthesis of Ocimum basilicum L. Monoterpenes,Sesquiterpenes in a Concentration-Dependent Behavior

Russian Journal of Plant Physiology - Engineered nanoparticles can alter the metabolism pathways and the profiling of metabolites in plants. In this study, we prepared the β-cyclodextrin...