Estimating the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States using influenza surveillance,virologic testing,and mortality data: Four complementary approaches

Effectively designing and evaluating public health responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic requires accurate estimation of the prevalence of COVID-19 across the United States (US). Equipment shortages and varying testing capabilities have however hindered the usefulness of the official reported positive COVID-19 case counts. We introduce four complementary approaches to estimate the cumulative incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 in each state in the US as well as Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia, using a combination of excess influenza-like illness reports, COVID-19 test statistics, COVID-19 mortality reports, and a spatially structured epidemic model. Instead of relying on the estimate from a single data source or method that may be biased, we provide multiple estimates, each relying on different assumptions and data sources. Across our four approaches emerges the consistent conclusion that on April 4, 2020, the estimated case count was 5 to 50 times higher than the official positive test counts across the different states. Nationally, our estimates of COVID-19 symptomatic cases as of April 4 have a likely range of 2.3 to 4.8 million, with possibly as many as 7.6 million cases, up to 25 times greater than the cumulative confirmed cases of about 311,000. Extending our methods to May 16, 2020, we estimate that cumulative symptomatic incidence ranges from 4.9 to 10.1 million, as opposed to 1.5 million positive test counts. The proposed combination of approaches may prove useful in assessing the burden of COVID-19 during resurgences in the US and other countries with comparable surveillance systems.     

Synthesis and properties of triplex-forming oligonucleotides containing 2′-O-(2-methoxyethyl)-5-(3-aminoprop-1-ynyl)-uridine

2′-O-(2-Methoxyethyl)-5-(3-aminoprop-1-ynyl)-uridine phosphoramidite (MEPU) has been synthesized from d-ribose and 5-iodouracil and incorporated into triplex-forming oligonucleotides (TFOs) by automated solid-phase oligonucleotide synthesis. The TFOs gave very high triplex stability with their target duplexes as measured by ultraviolet/fluorescence melting and DNase I footprinting. The incorporation of MEPU into TFOs renders them resistant to degradation by serum nucleases.     

A NEW LYGINOPTERID POLLEN ORGAN WITH ALVEOLATE POLLEN EXINES

A new lyginopterid pollen organ is described based upon specimens occurring in a single coal ball from the Providence, Kentucky locality. Seven to nine beaked sporangia are fused together at their proximal ends forming a common synangial chamber; synangia are joined together in clusters of two or three. In situ prepollen is similar to Cyclogranisporites and Verrucosisporites sporae dispersae. The thick exine has a lamellate nexine and a prominent alveolate sexine.     

Quantitative detection of cell surface protein expression by time-resolved fluorimetry.

A method is introduced for quantitative detection of cell surface protein expression. The method is based on immunocytochemistry, the use of long decay time europium(III) chelate and platinum(II) porphyrin labels, and detection of photoluminescence emission from adhered cells by time-resolved fluorimetry. After immunocytochemistry, the assay wells are evaporated to dryness and measured in the dry state. This protocol allows repeated and postponed analysis and microscopy imaging. In order to investigate the performance of the method, we chose expression of intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) of endothelial cell line EAhy926 as a research target. The expression of ICAM-1 on the cells was enhanced by introduction of a cytokine, tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNFalpha). The method gave signal:background ratios (S:B) of 20 and 9 for europium and platinum labels, respectively, whereas prompt fluorescent FITC label gave a S:B of 3. Screening window coefficients (=Z'-factor) were >0.5 for all the three labels, thus indicating a score for an excellent screening assay. In conclusion, the method appears to be an appropriate choice for protein expression analysis, both in high-throughput screening applications, and for detailed sample investigation by fluorescent microscopy imaging.