Contribution of crop model structure,parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments

Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple‐ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple‐ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was ?4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981–2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple‐ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources.     

EARLY RESPONSIVE TO DEHYDRATION 15, a negative regulator of abscisic acid responses in Arabidopsis

EARLY RESPONSIVE TO DEHYDRATION 15 (ERD15) is rapidly induced in response to various abiotic and biotic stress stimuli in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). Modulation of ERD15 levels by overexpression or RNAi silencing altered the responsiveness of the transgenic plants to the phytohormone abscisic acid (ABA). Overexpression of ERD15 reduced the ABA sensitivity of Arabidopsis manifested in decreased drought tolerance and in impaired ability of the plants to increase their freezing tolerance in response to this hormone. In contrast, RNAi silencing of ERD15 resulted in plants that were hypersensitive to ABA and showed improved tolerance to both drought and freezing, as well as impaired seed germination in the presence of ABA. The modulation of ERD15 levels not only affected abiotic stress tolerance but also disease resistance: ERD15 overexpression plants showed improved resistance to the bacterial necrotroph Erwinia carotovora subsp. carotovora accompanied with enhanced induction of marker genes for systemic acquired resistance. We propose that ERD15 is a novel mediator of stress-related ABA signaling in Arabidopsis.     

The 3′→5′ exonuclease associated with HeLa DNA polymerase epsilon

The 3′→5′ exonuclease activity of highly purified large form of human DNA polymerase epsilon was studied. The activity removes mononucleotides from the 3′ end of an oligonucleotide with a non-processive mechanism and leaves 5′-terminal trinucleotide non-hydrolyzed. This is the case both with single-stranded oligonucleotides and with oligonucleotides annealed to complementary regions of M13DNA. However, the reaction rates with single-stranded oligonucleotides are at least ten-fold when compared to those with completely base-paired oligonucleotides. Conceivably, mismatched 3′ end of an oligonucleotide annealed to M13DNA is rapidly removed and the hydrolysis is slown down when double-stranded region is reached. The preferential removal of a non-complementary 3′ end and the non-processive mechanism are consistent with anticipated proofreading function. In addition to the 3′→5′ exonuclease activity, an 5′→3′ exonuclease activity is often present even in relatively highly purified DNA polymerase epsilon preparates suggesting that such an activity may be an essential com-ponent for the action of this enzymein vivo. Contrary to the 3′→5′ exonuclease activity, the 5′→3′ exonuclease is separable from the polymerase activity.     

Juvenile Barn Swallows Hirundo rustica L. from late broods start autumn migration younger,fuel less effectively and show lower return rates than juveniles from early broods

Long‐distance migratory passerines may exhibit different post‐fledging rearing times between their early and late broods due to limited time and energy resources. This could affect the migratory fuelling behaviour, condition and fitness of juvenile birds. We analysed long‐term (13‐year) biometric data (body mass, fat score) on Barn Swallows ringed at the nest and later recaptured during their initial stages of autumn migration. The return rates of early‐ and late‐born juveniles after overwintering in Africa were further compared to estimate their fitness. We found that juveniles from late broods started migrating south on average 11 days younger compared with juveniles from early broods. Body masses of nestlings did not differ between early and late broods, but juveniles from late broods were in better condition after leaving the nest, possibly due to a longer period of parental care. Having started migration, juveniles from late broods were, however, less efficient in accumulating energy than juveniles from early broods. A younger departure age, together with less efficient fuelling of late brood juveniles, may partly explain the 39% lower return probability and hence lower fitness value of late‐brood juveniles. Our study is the first to show that juveniles from the early and late broods exhibit different fuelling behaviour and departure strategies (in terms of age and timing), which may be reflected in the fitness value of offspring.     

Riedel's thyroiditis in a patient with multiple sclerosis

Our patient developed Riedel's thyroiditis soon after having an exacerbation of multiple sclerosis (MS). MS has been associated with other autoimmune diseases, including thyroiditis, and both Hashimoto's thyroiditis and subacute thyroiditis have been described in connection with MS. Yet, we are not aware of any other patient reported to have concomitant MS and Riedel's thyroiditis. The association between MS and Riedel's thyroiditis remains obscure but may reflect an autoimmune disorder common to both diseases.     

Dietary phytoestrogens and cancer: in vitro and in vivo studies

Thirty postmenopausal women (11 omnivores, 10 vegetarians and 9 apparently healthy women with surgically removed breast cancer) were investigated with regard to the association of their urinary excretion of estrogens, lignans and isoflavonoids (all diphenols) with plasma sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). A statistically significant positive correlation between urinary total diphenol excretion and plasma SHBG was found which remained statistically significant after elimination of the confounding effect of body mass determined by body mass index (BMI). Furthermore we found a statistically significant negative correlation between plasma SHBG and urinary excretion of 16α-hydroxyestrone and estriol which also remained significant after eliminating the effect of BMI. Furthermore we observed that enterolactone (Enl) stimulates the synthesis of SHBG by HepG2 liver cancer cells in culture acting synergistically with estradiol and at physiological concentrations. Enl was rapidly conjugated by the liver cells, mainly to its monosulfate. Several lignans and the isoflavonoids daidzein and equol were found to compete with estradiol for binding to the rat uterine type II estrogen binding site (the s.c. bioflavonoid receptor). It is suggested that lignans and isoflavonoids may affect uptake and metabolism of sex hormones by participating in the regulation of plasma SHBG levels and in this way influence their biological activity and that they may inhibit cancer cell growth like some flavonoids by competing with estradiol for the type II estrogen binding sites.     

The 3′→5′ exonuclease associated with HeLa DNA polymerase epsilon

The 3′→5′ exonuclease activity of highly purified large form of human DNA polymerase epsilon was studied. The activity removes mononucleotides from the 3′ end of an oligonucleotide with a non-processive mechanism and leaves 5′-terminal trinucleotide non-hydrolyzed. This is the case both with single-stranded oligonucleotides and with oligonucleotides annealed to complementary regions of M13DNA. However, the reaction rates with single-stranded oligonucleotides are at least ten-fold when compared to those with completely base-paired oligonucleotides. Conceivably, mismatched 3′ end of an oligonucleotide annealed to M13DNA is rapidly removed and the hydrolysis is slown down when double-stranded region is reached. The preferential removal of a non-complementary 3′ end and the non-processive mechanism are consistent with anticipated proofreading function. In addition to the 3′→5′ exonuclease activity, an 5′→3′ exonuclease activity is often present even in relatively highly purified DNA polymerase epsilon preparates suggesting that such an activity may be an essential com-ponent for the action of this enzymein vivo. Contrary to the 3′→5′ exonuclease activity, the 5′→3′ exonuclease is separable from the polymerase activity.     

Amyloid-beta 1-42 induced endocytosis and clusterin/apoJ protein accumulation in cultured human astrocytes

Recent studies indicate that astrocytes may be the primary target of secreted amyloid-beta 1-42 peptides, with the neurotoxicity representing a secondary response to astrocytic stress. Our purpose was to clarify the astrocytic stress response induced by amyloid-beta peptides in human and rat astrocytes. Human amyloid-beta 1-42 peptides and fibrils induced the appearance of cytoplasmic vacuoles in normal human astrocytes (NHA) and CCFsttg1 astrocytoma cells. Vacuoles appeared 9-12h after the amyloid-beta exposure and remained present for several days. Rat primary neonatal astrocytes showed similar but less prominent vacuolar response. Human amyloid-beta peptides 1-16, 1-28, 10-20, 17-21 and 25-35 did not cause vacuole formation. Electron microscopic observations revealed large endocytic vacuoles containing fibrillar amyloid material. Stress marker analysis did not show any increase in protein levels of HSP70, HSP90, GRP78 and GRP94. However, the protein level of clusterin/apoJ, a secreted chaperone, was strongly increased both in NHA and CCFsttg1 astrocytes. Endocytic response associated with the accumulation of clusterin/apoJ protein suggests that clusterin/apoJ has a role in the clearance of amyloid-beta peptides.     

Reproductive effort of female bank voles in a risky environment

In cyclically fluctuating vole populations, strong intraspecific competition and intense predation simultaneously or separately increase the costs of reproduction and so may set the framework for the optimal breeding tactic of voles. In a factorial experiment, we manipulated two factors in the breeding environment of bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) pairs, each with two treatment levels: no predation risk or high risk of specialist predators and low or high density of voles. In the manipulation, we used odours of conspecific voles and/or mustelid predators. Both over-wintered and young, summer-born, wild-caught bank vole females and males in breeding condition were used. Each female—male pair of voles was placed in a cage and the cages were distributed in large outdoor enclosures. All animals were fed ad libitum. Under predation risk, both old and young females suppressed breeding significantly. The density of conspecific voles did not affect overall breeding. However, there was some evidence that population density stimulated breeding of old females but suppressed breeding of young ones. Both risk factors appeared to increase litter sizes of those individuals who decided to breed. Our results indicate that the risk of predation may be an important factor determining reproductive tactics of bank vole females. In risky environments, females seemed to choose between two totally opposite tactics: they suppressed breeding, which may increase their own survival to the next breeding event, or they continued to breed in spite of expected high survival costs. Females seemed to compensate the latter costs with a higher effort to the current and probably the last reproduction.     

Pollution related effects on immune function and stress in a free-living population of pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca

We investigated whether exposure to heavy metal pollution affected the immune function of individuals in a free living population of a small insectivorous passerine bird, the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca . We measured humoral immune responses in two study areas: a polluted area in the vicinity of a copper smelter and a control area far from the smelter. Plasma corticosterone level and blood heterophil/lymphocyte ratio (H/L) were used as more general physiological measures of stress. The immune response of F. hypoleuca was not suppressed by pollution stress. In contrast, we found that F. hypoleuca males showed stronger humoral immune responses to a novel antigen (tetanus toxoid) in the polluted environment than in the unpolluted one. After the immunization of males, numbers of lymphocytes rose significantly more in the polluted area, leading to a smaller H/L ratio than in males from the control area. Females showed no pollution related effects on their immune responses. Corticosterone levels of males and nestlings were not related to pollution levels. Nestlings showed somewhat higher H/L ratios and lower fledging success in the polluted area, both factors indicating increased stress levels in a polluted area. Our results suggest that humoral immune response of male F. hypoleuca may be enhanced under moderate levels of heavy metal pollution. Enhanced immune function may, however, also be costly for birds and the higher humoral immune responses in polluted areas may thus have negative effects on the birds' breeding performance and survival.