Does the Future Affect the Present? The Effects of Future Weather on the Current Collection of Planted Crops and Wildlife in a Native Amazonian Society of Bolivia

Unlike neighboring disciplines, anthropology rarely studies how actual future events affect current behavior. Such studies could lay the groundwork for studies of ethno-forecasting. Psychologists argue that people forecast poorly, but some empirical work in cultural anthropology suggests that at least with weather, rural people might make reasonably accurate forecasts. Using data from a small-scale, pre-industrial rural society in the Bolivian Amazon, this study estimates the effects of future weather on the current collection of planted crops and wildlife. If actual future events affect current behavior, then this would suggest that people must forecast accurately. Longitudinal data covering 11 consecutive months (10/2002–8/2003, inclusive) from 311 women and 326 men ≥age 14 in 13 villages of a contemporary society of forager-farmers in Bolivia’s Amazon (Tsimane’) are used. Individual fixed-effect panel linear regressions are used to estimate the effect of future weather (mean hourly temperature and total daily rain) over the next 1–7 days from today on the probability of collecting wildlife (game, fish, and feral plants excluding firewood) and planted farm crops (annuals and perennials) today. Daily weather records come from a town next to the Tsimane’ territory and data on foraging and farming come from scans (behavioral spot observations) and surveys of study participants done during scans. Short-term future weather (≤3 days) affected the probability of collecting planted crops and wildlife today, although the effect was greater on the amount of planted crops harvested today than on the amount of wildlife collected today. Future weather beyond 3 days bore no significant association with the amount of planted crops harvested today nor with the amount of wildlife collected today. After controlling for future and past weather, today’s weather (mean hourly temperature, but not rain) affected the probability of collecting wildlife today, but today’s weather (temperature or rain) did not affect the probability of collecting planted crops today. The study supports prior work by anthropologists suggesting that rural people forecast accurately. If future weather affects the probability of harvesting planted crops and collecting wildlife today, then this suggests that Tsimane’ must forecast accurately. We discuss possible reasons for the finding. The study also supports growing evidence from rural areas of low-income nations that rural people tend to protect their food production and food consumption well against small idiosyncratic shocks or, in our case, against ordinary daily weather that is not extreme. However, the greater responsiveness of daily foraging output compared with daily farming output to today’s weather suggests that foraging might not protect food consumption as well as farming against adverse climate perturbations.     

The systematic utility of floral and vegetative fragrance in two genera of nyctaginaceae

We examined relationships between fragrance and phylogeny using a number of approaches to coding fragrance data and comparing the hierarchical information in fragrance data with the phylogenetic signal in a DNA sequence data set. We first used distance analyses to determine which coding method(s) best distinguishes species while grouping conspecifics. Results suggest that interspecific differences in fragrance composition were maximized by coding as presence/absence of fragrance compounds and biosynthetic pathways rather than when quantitative information was also included. Useful systematic information came from both compounds and pathways and from fragrance emitted by both floral and vegetative tissues. The coding methods that emerged from the distance analyses as best distinguishing species were then adapted for use in phylogenetic analysis. Although hierarchical signal among fragrance data sets was congruent, this signal was highly incongruent with the phylogenetic signal in the DNA sequence data. Notably, topologies inferred from fragrance data sets were congruent with the DNA topology only in the most distal portions (e.g., sister group pairs or closely related species that had similar fragrance profiles were often recovered by analyses of fragrance). Examination of consistency and retention indices for individual fragrance compounds and pathways as optimized onto one of the most-parsimonious trees inferred from DNA data revealed that although most compounds were homoplastic, some compounds were perfectly congruent with the DNA phylogeny. In particular, compounds and pathways found in a few taxa were less homoplastic than those found in many taxa. Pathways that synthesize few volatiles also seem to have lower homoplasy than those that produce many. Although fragrance data as a whole may not be useful in phylogeny reconstruction, these data can provide additional support for clades reconstructed with other types of characters. Factors other than phylogeny, including pollinator interactions, also likely influence fragrance composition.     

Characterization of Serologically Dominant Outer Membrane Proteins of Neisseria gonorrhoeae

The proteins of the outer membrane of Neisseria gonorrhoeae play an important role in the serotyping system defined by K. H. Johnston et al. (J. Exp. Med. 143:741–758, 1976). This study attempted to delineate the molecular arrangement of the major proteins of the outer membrane of the gonococcus by using three approaches. First, natural protein-protein relationships were demonstrated by symmetrical, two-dimensional sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Second, proteins exposed on the surface of outer membrane vesicles were cross-linked by using the bifunctional reagents dimethyl-3,3′-dithiobispropionimidate and dithiobis[succinimidyl propionate]. Third, specific antigen-antibody interactions on the surface of membrane vesicles were analyzed by radioautographic techniques. The major proteins of the outer membrane of the gonococcus were defined, and a nomenclature was devised to take into account the effects of heat and reducing agents on the resolution of these proteins by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Results of cross-linking experiments strongly suggest that two of the major proteins of the gonococcal outer membrane (proteins 1 and 3) form a hydrophobically associated trimeric unit in situ which can be stabilized by selective cross-linking reagents. Results substantiated that these proteins are responsible for imparting serotypic specificity.     

Anthropometric correlates of C-reactive protein among indigenous Siberians

C-reactive protein (CRP) is an inflammatory marker, which at low-level elevations is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Although CRP has been extensively investigated in North American and European settings, few studies have measured CRP among non-Western groups. The present study used dried whole blood spot samples to examine high-sensitivity CRP concentrations among the Yakut (Sakha) of Siberia (85 females, 56 males; 18-58 years old). Our goals were: (1) to compare Yakut CRP concentrations with other populations; (2) to investigate sex differences; and (3) to explore anthropometric correlates of CRP. Results indicate that serum equivalent CRP concentrations are similar to those from industrializing nations, lower than US and European values, and greater than Japanese concentrations. Yakut men and women display similar CRP concentrations; however, CRP was significantly higher among men after adjustment for body fat, age, and smoking. Positive associations were documented between CRP and BMI, body fat, and central adiposity.