Is Demography Destiny? Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Accurately Predict Population Health Outcomes from a Minimal Demographic Dataset

For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.     

A Draft Map of Rhesus Monkey Tissue Proteome for Biomedical Research

Though the rhesus monkey is one of the most valuable non-human primate animal models for various human diseases because of its manageable size and genetic and proteomic similarities with humans, proteomic research using rhesus monkeys still remains challenging due to the lack of a complete protein sequence database and effective strategy. To investigate the most effective and high-throughput proteomic strategy, comparative data analysis was performed employing various protein databases and search engines. The UniProt databases of monkey, human, bovine, rat and mouse were used for the comparative analysis and also a universal database with all protein sequences from all available species was tested. At the same time, de novo sequencing was compared to the SEQUEST search algorithm to identify an optimal work flow for monkey proteomics. Employing the most effective strategy, proteomic profiling of monkey organs identified 3,481 proteins at 0.5% FDR from 9 male and 10 female tissues in an automated, high-throughput manner. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD001972. Based on the success of this alternative interpretation of MS data, the list of proteins identified from 12 organs of male and female subjects will benefit future rhesus monkey proteome research.     

Relative Abundance and Plasmodium Infection Rates of Malaria Vectors in and around Jabalpur,a Malaria Endemic Region in Madhya Pradesh State,Central India

BackgroundThis study was undertaken in two Primary Health Centers (PHCs) of malaria endemic district Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh (Central India).MethodsIn this study we had investigated the relative frequencies of the different anopheline species collected within the study areas by using indoor resting catches, CDC light trap and human landing methods. Sibling species of malaria vectors were identified by cytogenetic and molecular techniques. The role of each vector and its sibling species in the transmission of the different Plasmodium species was ascertained by using sporozoite ELISA.ResultsA total of 52,857 specimens comprising of 17 anopheline species were collected by three different methods (39,964 by indoor resting collections, 1059 by human landing and 11,834 by CDC light trap). Anopheles culicifacies was most predominant species in all collections (55, 71 and 32% in indoor resting, human landing and light trap collections respectively) followed by An. subpictus and An. annularis. All five sibling species of An. culicifacies viz. species A, B, C, D and E were found while only species T and S of An. fluviatilis were collected. The overall sporozoite rate in An. culicifacies and An. fluviatilis were 0.42% (0.25% for P. falciparum and 0.17% for P. vivax) and 0.90% (0.45% for P. falciparum and 0.45% for P. vivax) respectively. An. culicifacies and An. fluviatilis were found harbouring both P. vivax variants VK-210 and VK-247, and P. falciparum. An. culicifacies sibling species C and D were incriminated as vectors during most part of the year while sibling species T of An. fluviatilis was identified as potential vector in monsoon and post monsoon season.ConclusionsAn. culicifacies species C (59%) was the most abundant species followed by An. culicifacies D (24%), B (8.7%), E (6.7%) and A (1.5%). Among An. fluviatilis sibling species, species T was common (99%) and only few specimens of S were found. Our study provides crucial information on the prevalence of An. culicifacies and An. fluviatilis sibling species and their potential in malaria transmission which will assist in developing strategic control measures against these vectors.     

Isoproterenol Acts as a Biased Agonist of the Alpha-1A-Adrenoceptor that Selectively Activates the MAPK/ERK Pathway

The α_1A-AR is thought to couple predominantly to the Gα_q/PLC pathway and lead to phosphoinositide hydrolysis and calcium mobilization, although certain agonists acting at this receptor have been reported to trigger activation of arachidonic acid formation and MAPK pathways. For several G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) agonists can manifest a bias for activation of particular effector signaling output, i.e. not all agonists of a given GPCR generate responses through utilization of the same signaling cascade(s). Previous work with Gα_q coupling-defective variants of α_1A-AR, as well as a combination of Ca²⁺ channel blockers, uncovered cross-talk between α_1A-AR and β₂-AR that leads to potentiation of a Gα_q-independent signaling cascade in response to α_1A-AR activation. We hypothesized that molecules exist that act as biased agonists to selectively activate this pathway. In this report, isoproterenol (Iso), typically viewed as β-AR-selective agonist, was examined with respect to activation of α_1A-AR. α_1A-AR selective antagonists were used to specifically block Iso evoked signaling in different cellular backgrounds and confirm its action at α_1A-AR. Iso induced signaling at α_1A-AR was further interrogated by probing steps along the Gα_q /PLC, Gα_s and MAPK/ERK pathways. In HEK-293/EBNA cells transiently transduced with α_1A-AR, and CHO_α_1A-AR stable cells, Iso evoked low potency ERK activity as well as Ca²⁺ mobilization that could be blocked by α_1A-AR selective antagonists. The kinetics of Iso induced Ca²⁺ transients differed from typical Gα_q- mediated Ca²⁺ mobilization, lacking both the fast IP₃R mediated response and the sustained phase of Ca²⁺ re-entry. Moreover, no inositol phosphate (IP) accumulation could be detected in either cell line after stimulation with Iso, but activation was accompanied by receptor internalization. Data are presented that indicate that Iso represents a novel type of α_1A-AR partial agonist with signaling bias toward MAPK/ERK signaling cascade that is likely independent of coupling to Gα_q.     

Evidence of niche shift and global invasion potential of the Tawny Crazy ant,Nylanderia fulva

Analysis of an invasive species' niche shift between native and introduced ranges, along with potential distribution maps, can provide valuable information about its invasive potential. The tawny crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva, is a rapidly emerging and economically important invasive species in the southern United States. It is originally from east‐central South America and has also invaded Colombia and the Caribbean Islands. Our objectives were to generate a global potential distribution map for N. fulva, identify important climatic drivers associated with its current distribution, and test whether N. fulva's realized climatic niche has shifted across its invasive range. We used MaxEnt niche model to map the potential distribution of N. fulva using its native and invaded range occurrences and climatic variables. We used principal component analysis methods for investigating potential shifts in the realized climatic niche of N. fulva during invasion. We found strong evidence for a shift in the realized climatic niche of N. fulva across its invasive range. Our models predicted potentially suitable habitat for N. fulva in the United States and other parts of the world. Our analyses suggest that the majority of observed occurrences of N. fulva in the United States represent stabilizing populations. Mean diurnal range in temperature, degree days at ≥10°C, and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important variables associated with N. fulva distribution. The climatic niche expansion demonstrated in our study may suggest significant plasticity in the ability of N. fulva to survive in areas with diverse temperature ranges shown by its tolerance for environmental conditions in the southern United States, Caribbean Islands, and Colombia. The risk maps produced in this study can be useful in preventing N. fulva's future spread, and in managing and monitoring currently infested areas.     

Functional Impairment of Myeloid Dendritic Cells during Advanced Stage of HIV-1 Infection: Role of Factors Regulating Cytokine Signaling

Introduction

Severely immunocompromised state during advanced stage of HIV-1 infection has been linked to functionally defective antigen presentation by dendritic cells (DCs). The molecular mechanisms behind DC impairment are still obscure. We investigated changes in DC function and association of key regulators of cytokine signaling during different stages of HIV-1 infection and following antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods

Phenotypic and functional characteristics of circulating myeloid DCs (mDCs) in 56 ART-naive patients (23 in early and 33 in advanced stage of disease), 36 on ART and 24 healthy controls were evaluated. Sixteen patients were studied longitudinally prior-to and 6 months after the start of ART. For functional studies, monocyte-derived DCs (Mo-DCs) were evaluated for endocytosis, allo-stimulation and cytokine secretion. The expression of suppressor of cytokine signaling (SOCS)-1 and other regulators of cytokine signaling was evaluated by real-time RT-PCR.

Results

The ability to respond to an antigenic stimulation was severely impaired in patients in advanced HIV-1 disease which showed partial recovery in the treated group. Mo-DCs from patients with advanced HIV-disease remained immature with low allo-stimulation and reduced cytokine secretion even after TLR-4 mediated stimulation ex-vivo. The cells had an increased expression of negative regulatory factors like SOCS-1, SOCS-3, SH2-containing phosphatase(SHP)-1 and a reduced expression of positive regulators like Janus kinase(JAK)2 and Nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells(NF-κB)1. A functional recovery after siRNA mediated silencing of SOCS-1 in these mo-DCs confirms the role of negative regulatory factors in functional impairment of these cells.

Conclusions

Functionally defective DCs in advanced stage of HIV-1 infection seems to be due to imbalanced state of negative and positive regulatory gene expression. Whether this is a cause or effect of increased viral replication at this stage of disease, needs further investigation. The information may be useful in design of novel therapeutic targets for better management of disease.     

Metabolomics and Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in African Americans: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia. Application of metabolomic approaches, which may identify novel pathways and biomarkers of disease risk, to a longitudinal epidemiologic study of AF has been limited.

Methods

We determined the prospective association of 118 serum metabolites identified through untargeted metabolomics profiling with the incidence of newly-diagnosed AF in 1919 African-American men and women from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study without AF at baseline (1987–1989). Incident AF cases through 2011 were ascertained from study electrocardiograms, hospital discharge codes, and death certificates.

Results

During a median follow-up of 22 years, we identified 183 incident AF cases. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, smoking, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, prevalent heart failure, prevalent coronary heart disease, and kidney function, two conjugated bile acids (glycolithocholate sulfate and glycocholenate sulfate) were significantly associated with AF risk after correcting for multiple comparisons (p<0.0004). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of AF were 1.22 (1.12–1.32) for glycolithocholate sulfate and 1.22 (1.10–1.35) for glycocholenate sulfate per 1-standard deviation higher levels. Associations were not appreciably different after additional adjustment for alcohol consumption or concentrations of circulating albumin and liver enzymes.

Conclusion

We found an association of higher levels of two bile acids with an increased risk of AF, pointing to a potential novel pathway in AF pathogenesis. Replication of results in independent studies is warranted.     

Association of White Blood Cell Count and Differential with the Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Background

Although inflammation is involved in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), the association of white blood cell (WBC) count and differential with AF has not been thoroughly examined in large cohorts with extended follow-up.

Methods

We studied 14,500 men and women (25% blacks, 55% women, mean age 54) free of AF at baseline (1987–89) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a community-based cohort in the United States. Incident AF cases through 2010 were identified from study electrocardiograms, hospital discharge records and death certificates. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for AF associated with WBC count and differential.

Results

Over a median follow-up time of 21.5 years for the entire cohort, 1928 participants had incident AF. Higher total WBC count was associated with higher AF risk independent of AF risk factors and potential confounders (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04–1.15 per 1-standard deviation [SD] increase). Higher neutrophil and monocyte counts were positively associated with AF risk, while an inverse association was identified between lymphocyte count and AF (multivariable adjusted HRs 1.16, 95% CI 1.09–1.23; 1.05, 95% CI 1.00–1.11; 0.91, 95% CI 0.86–0.97 per 1-SD, respectively). No significant association was identified between eosinophils or basophils and AF.

Conclusions

High total WBC, neutrophil, and monocyte counts were each associated with higher AF risk while lymphocyte count was inversely associated with AF risk. Systemic inflammation may underlie this association and requires further investigation for strategies to prevent AF.