Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty

We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as ‘extremely likely’ for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many ‘losers’ as ‘winners’. However, for no species was suitable climate ‘extremely likely’ to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35–69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as ‘extremely likely’ to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species' movement among sites, is critical to ensure effective future conservation.     

Differential Endosomal Sorting of a Novel P2Y12 Purinoreceptor Mutant

P2Y₁₂ receptor internalization and recycling play an essential role in ADP‐induced platelet activation. Recently, we identified a patient with a mild bleeding disorder carrying a heterozygous mutation of P2Y₁₂ (P341A) whose P2Y₁₂ receptor recycling was significantly compromised. Using human cell line models, we identified key proteins regulating wild‐type (WT) P2Y₁₂ recycling and investigated P2Y₁₂‐P341A receptor traffic. Treatment with ADP resulted in delayed Rab5‐dependent internalization of P341A when compared with WT P2Y₁₂. While WT P2Y₁₂ rapidly recycled back to the membrane via Rab4 and Rab11 recycling pathways, limited P341A recycling was observed, which relied upon Rab11 activity. Although minimal receptor degradation was evident, P341A was localized in Rab7‐positive endosomes with considerable agonist‐dependent accumulation in the trans‐Golgi network (TGN). Rab7 activity is known to facilitate recruitment of retromer complex proteins to endosomes to transport cargo to the TGN. Here, we identified that P341A colocalized with Vps26; depletion of which blocked limited recycling and promoted receptor degradation. This study has identified key points of divergence in the endocytic traffic of P341A versus WT‐P2Y₁₂. Given that these pathways are retained in human platelets, this research helps define the molecular mechanisms regulating P2Y₁₂ receptor traffic and explain the compromised receptor function in the platelets of the P2Y₁₂‐P341A‐expressing patient.     

Electron tomography of Plasmodium falciparum merozoites reveals core cellular events that underpin erythrocyte invasion

Erythrocyte invasion by merozoites forms of the malaria parasite is a key step in the establishment of human malaria disease. To date, efforts to understand cellular events underpinning entry have been limited to insights from non‐human parasites, with no studies at sub‐micrometer resolution undertaken using the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. This leaves our understanding of the dynamics of merozoite sub‐cellular compartments during infectionincomplete, in particular that of the secretory organelles. Using advances in P. falciparum merozoite isolation and new imaging techniques we present a three‐dimensional study of invasion using electron microscopy, cryo‐electron tomography and cryo‐X‐ray tomography. We describe the core architectural features of invasion and identify fusion between rhoptries at the commencement of invasion as a hitherto overlooked event that likely provides a critical step that initiates entry. Given the centrality of merozoite organelle proteins to vaccine development, these insights provide a mechanistic framework to understand therapeutic strategies targeted towards the cellular events of invasion.     

Patients' & Healthcare Professionals' Values Regarding True- & False-Positive Diagnosis when Colorectal Cancer Screening by CT Colonography: Discrete Choice Experiment

Purpose

To establish the relative weighting given by patients and healthcare professionals to gains in diagnostic sensitivity versus loss of specificity when using CT colonography (CTC) for colorectal cancer screening.

Materials and Methods

Following ethical approval and informed consent, 75 patients and 50 healthcare professionals undertook a discrete choice experiment in which they chose between “standard” CTC and “enhanced” CTC that raised diagnostic sensitivity 10% for either cancer or polyps in exchange for varying levels of specificity. We established the relative increase in false-positive diagnoses participants traded for an increase in true-positive diagnoses.

Results

Data from 122 participants were analysed. There were 30 (25%) non-traders for the cancer scenario and 20 (16%) for the polyp scenario. For cancer, the 10% gain in sensitivity was traded up to a median 45% (IQR 25 to >85) drop in specificity, equating to 2250 (IQR 1250 to >4250) additional false-positives per additional true-positive cancer, at 0.2% prevalence. For polyps, the figure was 15% (IQR 7.5 to 55), equating to 6 (IQR 3 to 22) additional false-positives per additional true-positive polyp, at 25% prevalence. Tipping points were significantly higher for patients than professionals for both cancer (85 vs 25, p<0.001) and polyps (55 vs 15, p<0.001). Patients were willing to pay significantly more for increased sensitivity for cancer (p = 0.021).

Conclusion

When screening for colorectal cancer, patients and professionals believe gains in true-positive diagnoses are worth much more than the negative consequences of a corresponding rise in false-positives. Evaluation of screening tests should account for this.     

The Relationship between Media Consumption and Health-Related Anxieties after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster

Background

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster caused a global panic by a release of harmful radionuclides. In a disaster setting, misusage of contemporary media sources available today can lead to disseminated incorrect information and panic. The study aims to build a scale which examines associations between media and individual anxieties, and to propose effective media usages for future disaster management.

Methods

The University of Tokyo collaborated with the Fukushima local government to conduct a radiation-health-seminar for a total of 1560 residents, at 12 different locations in Fukushima. A 13 item questionnaire collected once before and after a radiation-seminar was used on factor analysis to develop sub-scales for multiple regression models, to determine relationships between the sub-scales and media type consumed. A paired t–test was used to examine any changes in sub-scale of pre- and post-seminar scores.

Results

Three sub-scales were revealed and were associated with different media types: was with rumors, while concern for the future was positively associated with regional-newspapers and negatively with national-newspapers. Anxiety about social-disruption was associated with radio. The seminar had a significant effect on anxiety reduction for all the three sub-scales.

Conclusion

Different media types were associated with various heightened concerns, and that a radiation seminar was helpful to reduce anxieties in the post-disaster setting. By tailoring post-disaster messages via specific media types, i.e., radio, it may be possible to effectively convey important information, as well as to calm fears about particular elements of post-disaster recovery and to combat rumors.     

Targeted Lipidomics in Drosophila melanogaster Identifies Novel 2-Monoacylglycerols and N-acyl Amides

Lipid metabolism is critical to coordinate organ development and physiology in response to tissue-autonomous signals and environmental cues. Changes to the availability and signaling of lipid mediators can limit competitiveness, adaptation to environmental stressors, and augment pathological processes. Two classes of lipids, the N-acyl amides and the 2-acyl glycerols, have emerged as important signaling molecules in a wide range of species with important signaling properties, though most of what is known about their cellular functions is from mammalian models. Therefore, expanding available knowledge on the repertoire of these lipids in invertebrates will provide additional avenues of research aimed at elucidating biosynthetic, metabolic, and signaling properties of these molecules. Drosophila melanogaster is a commonly used organism to study intercellular communication, including the functions of bioactive lipids. However, limited information is available on the molecular identity of lipids with putative biological activities in Drosophila. Here, we used a targeted lipidomics approach to identify putative signaling lipids in third instar Drosophila larvae, possessing particularly large lipid mass in their fat body. We identified 2-linoleoyl glycerol, 2-oleoyl glycerol, and 45 N-acyl amides in larval tissues, and validated our findings by the comparative analysis of Oregon-RS, Canton-S and w1118 strains. Data here suggest that Drosophila represent another model system to use for the study of 2-acyl glycerol and N-acyl amide signaling.     

The Economic Impact of Pig-Associated Parasitic Zoonosis in Northern Lao PDR

The parasitic zoonoses human cysticercosis (Taenia solium), taeniasis (other Taenia species) and trichinellosis (Trichinella species) are endemic in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). This study was designed to quantify the economic burden pig-associated zoonotic disease pose in Lao PDR. In particular, the analysis included estimation of the losses in the pork industry as well as losses due to human illness and lost productivity. A Markov-probability based decision-tree model was chosen to form the basis of the calculations to estimate the economic and public health impacts of taeniasis, trichinellosis and cysticercosis. Two different decision trees were run simultaneously on the model’s human cohort. A third decision tree simulated the potential impacts on pig production. The human capital method was used to estimate productivity loss. The results found varied significantly depending on the rate of hospitalisation due to neurocysticerosis. This study is the first systematic estimate of the economic impact of pig-associated zoonotic diseases in Lao PDR that demonstrates the significance of the diseases in that country.     

Rational Engineering of Recombinant Picornavirus Capsids to Produce Safe,Protective Vaccine Antigen

Foot-and-mouth disease remains a major plague of livestock and outbreaks are often economically catastrophic. Current inactivated virus vaccines require expensive high containment facilities for their production and maintenance of a cold-chain for their activity. We have addressed both of these major drawbacks. Firstly we have developed methods to efficiently express recombinant empty capsids. Expression constructs aimed at lowering the levels and activity of the viral protease required for the cleavage of the capsid protein precursor were used; this enabled the synthesis of empty A-serotype capsids in eukaryotic cells at levels potentially attractive to industry using both vaccinia virus and baculovirus driven expression. Secondly we have enhanced capsid stability by incorporating a rationally designed mutation, and shown by X-ray crystallography that stabilised and wild-type empty capsids have essentially the same structure as intact virus. Cattle vaccinated with recombinant capsids showed sustained virus neutralisation titres and protection from challenge 34 weeks after immunization. This approach to vaccine antigen production has several potential advantages over current technologies by reducing production costs, eliminating the risk of infectivity and enhancing the temperature stability of the product. Similar strategies that will optimize host cell viability during expression of a foreign toxic gene and/or improve capsid stability could allow the production of safe vaccines for other pathogenic picornaviruses of humans and animals.