Range-Wide Latitudinal and Elevational Temperature Gradients for the World's Terrestrial Birds: Implications under Global Climate Change

Species'' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world''s terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species'' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species'' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species'' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity of species to utilize these gradients under climate change.     

Survey completeness of a global citizen-science database of bird occurrence

Measuring the completeness of survey inventories created by citizen-science initiatives can identify the strengths and shortfalls in our knowledge of where species occur geographically. Here, we use occurrence information from eBird to measure the survey completeness of the world's birds in this database at three temporal resolutions and four spatial resolutions across the annual cycle during the period 2002 to 2018. Approximately 84% of the earth's terrestrial surface contained bird occurrence information with the greatest concentrations occurring in North America, Europe, India, Australia and New Zealand. The largest regions with low levels of survey completeness were located in central South America, northern and central Africa, and northern Asia. Across spatial and temporal resolutions, survey completeness in regions with occurrence information was 55–74% on average, with the highest values occurring at coarser temporal and coarser spatial resolutions and during spring migration within temperate and boreal regions. Across spatial and temporal resolutions, survey completeness exceeded 90% within ca 4–14% of the earth's terrestrial surface. Survey completeness increased globally from 2002 to 2018 across all months of the year at a rate of ca 3% yr^–1. The slowest gains occurred in Africa and in montane regions, and the most rapid gains occurred in India and in tropical forests after 2012. Thus, occurrence information from a global citizen-science program for a charismatic and well-studied taxon was geographically broad but contained heterogeneous patterns of survey completeness that were strongly influenced by temporal and especially spatial resolution. Our results identify regions where the application of additional effort would address current knowledge shortfalls, and regions where the maintenance of existing effort would benefit long-term monitoring efforts. Our findings highlight the potential of citizen science initiatives to further our knowledge of where species occur across space and time, information whose applications under global change will likely increase.     

Spring phenology of ecological productivity contributes to the use of looped migration strategies by birds

Migration is a common strategy used by birds that breed in seasonal environments. The patterns and determinants of migration routes, however, remain poorly understood. Recent empirical analyses have demonstrated that the locations of two North America migration flyways (eastern and western) shift seasonally, reflecting the influence of looped migration strategies. For the eastern but not western flyway, seasonal variation in atmospheric circulation has been identified as an explanation. Here, we test an alternative explanation based on the phenology of ecological productivity, which may be of greater relevance in western North America, where phenology is more broadly dictated by elevation. Migrants in the western flyway selected lower-elevation spring routes that were wetter, greener and more productive, and higher-elevation autumn routes that were less green and less productive, but probably more direct. Migrants in the eastern flyway showed little season variation but maintained associations with maximum regional greenness. Our findings suggest the annual phenology of ecological productivity is associated with en route timing in both flyways, and the spring phenology of ecological productivity contributes to the use of looped strategies in the western flyway. This fine-tuned spatial synchronization may be disrupted when changing climate induces a mismatch between food availability and needs.     

Identification of copy number variants from exome sequence data

Background

With advances in next generation sequencing technologies and genomic capture techniques, exome sequencing has become a cost-effective approach for mutation detection in genetic diseases. However, computational prediction of copy number variants (CNVs) from exome sequence data is a challenging task. Whilst numerous programs are available, they have different sensitivities, and have low sensitivity to detect smaller CNVs (1–4 exons). Additionally, exonic CNV discovery using standard aCGH has limitations due to the low probe density over exonic regions. The goal of our study was to develop a protocol to detect exonic CNVs (including shorter CNVs that cover 1–4 exons), combining computational prediction algorithms and a high-resolution custom CGH array.

Results

We used six published CNV prediction programs (ExomeCNV, CONTRA, ExomeCopy, ExomeDepth, CoNIFER, XHMM) and an in-house modification to ExomeCopy and ExomeDepth (ExCopyDepth) for computational CNV prediction on 30 exomes from the 1000 genomes project and 9 exomes from primary immunodeficiency patients. CNV predictions were tested using a custom CGH array designed to capture all exons (exaCGH). After this validation, we next evaluated the computational prediction of shorter CNVs. ExomeCopy and the in-house modified algorithm, ExCopyDepth, showed the highest capability in detecting shorter CNVs. Finally, the performance of each computational program was assessed by calculating the sensitivity and false positive rate.

Conclusions

In this paper, we assessed the ability of 6 computational programs to predict CNVs, focussing on short (1–4 exon) CNVs. We also tested these predictions using a custom array targeting exons. Based on these results, we propose a protocol to identify and confirm shorter exonic CNVs combining computational prediction algorithms and custom aCGH experiments.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2164-15-661) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The weakest link: sensitivity to climate extremes across life stages of marine invertebrates

Predicting the effects of climate change on Earth's biota becomes even more challenging when acknowledging that most species have life cycles consisting of multiple stages, each of which may respond differently to extreme environmental conditions. There is currently no clear consensus regarding which stages are most susceptible to increasing environmental stress, or ‘climate extremes’. We used a meta‐analytic approach to quantify variation in responses to environmental stress across multiple life stages of marine invertebrates. We identified 287 experiments in 29 papers which examined the lethal thresholds of multiple life stages (embryo, larva, juvenile and adult) of both holoplanktonic and meroplanktonic marine invertebrates subjected to the same experimental conditions of warming, acidification and hypoxia stress. Most studies considered short acute exposure to stressors. We calculated effect sizes (log response ratio) for each life stage (unpaired analysis) and the difference in effect sizes between stages of each species (paired analysis) included in each experiment. In the unpaired analysis, all significant responses were negative, indicating that warming, acidification and hypoxia tended to increase mortality. Furthermore, embryos, larvae and juveniles were more negatively affected by warming than adults. The paired analysis revealed that, when subjected to the same experimental conditions, younger life stages were more negatively affected by warming than older life stages, specifically among pairings of adults versus juveniles and larvae versus embryos. Although responses to warming are well documented, few studies of the effects of acidification and hypoxia met the criteria for inclusion in our analyses. Our results suggest that while most life stages will be negatively affected by climate change, younger stages of marine invertebrates are more sensitive to extreme heating events.     

Temperature tolerance and stress proteins as mechanisms of invasive species success

Invasive species are predicted to be more successful than natives as temperatures increase with climate change. However, few studies have examined the physiological mechanisms that theoretically underlie this differential success. Because correlative evidence suggests that invasiveness is related to the width of a species' latitudinal range, it has been assumed--but largely untested--that range width predicts breadth of habitat temperatures and physiological thermotolerances. In this study, we use empirical data from a marine community as a case study to address the hypotheses that (1) geographic temperature range attributes are related to temperature tolerance, leading to greater eurythermality in invasive species, and (2) stress protein expression is a subcellular mechanism that could contribute to differences in thermotolerance. We examined three native and six invasive species common in the subtidal epibenthic communities of California, USA. We assessed thermotolerance by exposing individuals to temperatures between 14°C and 31°C and determining the temperature lethal to 50% of individuals (LT(50)) after a 24 hour exposure. We found a strong positive relationship between the LT(50) and both maximum habitat temperatures and the breadth of temperatures experience across the species' ranges. In addition, of the species in our study, invasives tended to inhabit broader habitat temperature ranges and higher maximum temperatures. Stress protein expression may contribute to these differences: the more thermotolerant, invasive species Diplosoma listerianum expressed higher levels of a 70-kDa heat-shock protein than the less thermotolerant, native Distaplia occidentalis for which levels declined sharply above the LT(50). Our data highlight differences between native and invasive species with respect to organismal and cellular temperature tolerances. Future studies should address, across a broader phylogenetic and ecosystem scope, whether this physiological mechanism has facilitated the current success of invasive species and could lead to greater success of invasives than native species as global warming continues.     

Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change

1.?Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30?years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2.?Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3.?Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35?years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4.?There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation strategies in particular will benefit through identifying and maintaining dispersal corridors that accommodate diverging dispersal strategies and timetables.     

Long‐term declines in an intertidal foundation species parallel shifts in community composition

The earth is in the midst of a biodiversity crisis, and projections indicate continuing and accelerating rates of global changes. Future alterations in communities and ecosystems may be precipitated by changes in the abundance of strongly interacting species, whose disappearance can lead to profound changes in abundance of other species, including an increase in extinction rate for some. Nearshore coastal communities are often dependent on the habitat and food resources provided by foundational plant (e.g., kelp) and animal (e.g., shellfish) species. We quantified changes in the abundance of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), a foundation species known to influence diversity and productivity of intertidal habitats, over the past 40 years in the Gulf of Maine, USA, one of the fastest warming regions in the global ocean. Using consistent survey methods, we compared contemporary population sizes to historical data from sites spanning >400 km. The results of these comparisons showed that blue mussels have declined in the Gulf of Maine by >60% (range: 29–100%) at the site level since the earliest benchmarks in the 1970s. At the same time as mussels declined, community composition shifted: at the four sites with historical community data, the sessile community became increasingly algal dominated. Contemporary (2013–2014) surveys across 20 sites showed that sessile species richness was positively correlated to mussel abundance in mid to high intertidal zones. These results suggest that declines in a critical foundation species may have already impacted the intertidal community. To inform future conservation efforts, we provide a database of historical and contemporary baselines of mussel population abundance and dynamics in the Gulf of Maine. Our results underscore the importance of anticipating not only changes in diversity but also changes in the abundance and identity of component species, as strong interactors like foundation species have the potential to drive cascading community shifts.