Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland’s warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to analyze two mark–recapture datasets: 2006–2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003–2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland’s warbler and other Neotropical–Nearctic migratory bird species.     

Effect of cigar smoking on carboxyhaemoglobin and plasma nicotine concentrations in primary pipe and cigar smokers and ex-cigarette smokers

Five ex-cigarette smokers and five primary pipe and cigar smokers each smoked a large cigar. Carboxyhaemoglobin (COHb) and plasma nicotine levels were measured. In the ex-cigarette smokers mean COHb rose from 2·9% to 9·6% and plasma nicotine from 79·0 nmol/l to 281 nmol/l (12·8-45·6 ng/ml). This response was similar to that of cigarette smokers smoking cigarettes, which indicated that the subjects had inhaled and absorbed significant amounts of nicotine. In the primary pipe and cigar smokers the mean COHb rose from 0·8% to 1·0% and the plasma nicotine from 21 nmol/l to 32 nmol/l (3·4-5·2 ng/ml), indicating neither significant inhalation nor significant nicotine absorption.Since ex-cigarette smokers do not seem to lose their habit of inhaling when they change to cigars, measures aimed at persuading smokers to switch to cigars will have little effect on their health. Pipe and cigar smokers who have never smoked cigarettes do not inhale, which probably accounts for their reduced incidence of coronary heart disease and lung cancer. But they also appear not to absorb nicotine, which suggests that nicotine is absorbed largely from the lung and that the buccal mucosa is unimportant. It also raises the interesting question of why primary pipe and cigar smokers do smoke.     

Deception among smokers.

Subjects in two different clinical trials who had been advised to stop smoking were asked if they had done so. Some 22% of subjects (11 out of 51) in the first trial and 40% (33/82) in the second trial who said they had stopped smoking were found to have raised carboxyhaemoglobin concentrations. Deception appears to be common in people trying to stop smoking.     

Declines in scavenging by endangered vultures in the Horn of Africa

Scavenging is an important ecological process. By quickly locating and consuming carrion, vertebrate scavengers cycle nutrients, stabilize food webs, and may help mitigate disease transmission to humans. Across Africa, many scavengers feed at abattoirs (i.e. slaughterhouses), thereby aiding in waste removal. Little information exists on the scavenger community composition and dynamics at abattoirs, and, to our knowledge, the carrion removal that scavengers provide at these sites has never been quantified. We studied vertebrate scavenger ecology at 6 abattoirs in Ethiopia with time-lapse photography and in-person surveys from 2014–2019. Specifically, we investigated daily, seasonal, and inter-annual patterns in use of abattoirs by vertebrate scavengers and estimated carrion consumption rates. We demonstrated the importance of abattoirs for supporting a large number and diversity of scavenger species, including 3 critically endangered, 2 endangered, 1 vulnerable, and 2 regionally endemic bird species. At the start of the study, vultures contributed 57% of carrion removal provided by vertebrate scavengers. Detections of critically endangered Rüppell's (Gyps rueppelli) and white-backed (G. africanus) vultures declined by 73% and critically endangered hooded vultures (Necrosyrtes monachus) declined by 15% over the study period. Simultaneously, the detections of dogs more than doubled. Using estimates of species-specific carrion consumption rates from the literature, coupled with changes in scavenger detections in our study, we estimated a 12% (54 kg/day) reduction in carrion consumption, or nearly 20,000 kg carrion less consumed per year by the end of the study at these 6 abattoirs. Our results indicate that ongoing vulture declines across Africa could significantly reduce carrion removal. We recommend that improving fencing around abattoir facilities could help restrict access by feral dogs, increase foraging by vultures, and, therefore, increase overall carrion removal rates.     

Mitochondrial Genomes Suggest Rapid Evolution of Dwarf California Channel Islands Foxes (Urocyon littoralis)

Island endemics are typically differentiated from their mainland progenitors in behavior, morphology, and genetics, often resulting from long-term evolutionary change. To examine mechanisms for the origins of island endemism, we present a phylogeographic analysis of whole mitochondrial genomes from the endangered island fox (Urocyon littoralis), endemic to California’s Channel Islands, and mainland gray foxes (U. cinereoargenteus). Previous genetic studies suggested that foxes first appeared on the islands >16,000 years ago, before human arrival (~13,000 cal BP), while archaeological and paleontological data supported a colonization >7000 cal BP. Our results are consistent with initial fox colonization of the northern islands probably by rafting or human introduction ~9200–7100 years ago, followed quickly by human translocation of foxes from the northern to southern Channel Islands. Mitogenomes indicate that island foxes are monophyletic and most closely related to gray foxes from northern California that likely experienced a Holocene climate-induced range shift. Our data document rapid morphological evolution of island foxes (in ~2000 years or less). Despite evidence for bottlenecks, island foxes have generated and maintained multiple mitochondrial haplotypes. This study highlights the intertwined evolutionary history of island foxes and humans, and illustrates a new approach for investigating the evolutionary histories of other island endemics.     

A response to: Limitations within "The Limits to Tree Height"

Here we respond to the communication in American Journal of Botany (96: 542-544 in this issue) by Netting, who proposes several ways in which our paper "The Limits to Tree Height" (Nature 428: 851-854) may have erred in estimating the biophysical limits to height growth in Sequoia sempervirens. We first explain that because embolism repair requires long time periods and is generally incomplete, xylem vulnerability characteristics offer a sound basis for estimating performance limits in woody plants. We reaffirm our earlier use of vertical gradients of foliar carbon isotope composition with new data for S. sempervirens. We support these arguments with reference to studies in other tree species. We take exception with Netting's view that the turgor pressure-cell expansion relationship for Zea mays is applicable to S. sempervirens. Finally, we second Netting's call for more work on carbon allocation vis a vis height growth limits.     

Effects of bird predation on arthropod abundance and tree growth across an elevational gradient

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the conditions under which birds can cause trophic cascades. In a three‐year experiment, we studied the direct and indirect effects of insectivorous birds on arthropod abundance, herbivory, and growth of striped maple Acer pensylvanicum saplings in a northern hardwood forest of central New Hampshire, USA. We manipulated bird predation by erecting exclosures around saplings and directly manipulated herbivory by removing herbivores. We also examined how climate modifies these interactions by replicating the experiment at three locations along an elevational gradient. Effects of bird predation were variable. Overall, mean arthropod biomass was 20% greater on saplings within bird exclosures than on controls (p<0.05). The mean biomass of leaf‐chewing herbivores, primarily Lepidoptera larvae, was 25% greater within exclosures but not statistically different from controls. To a lesser degree, mean herbivore damage to foliage within exclosures exceeded that of controls but differences were not significant. We also did not detect significant treatment effects on sapling shoot growth. The high understory vegetation density relative to bird abundance, and low rate of herbivory during the study (mean 5% leaf area removed, controls), may have limited the ability of birds to affect sapling growth. Climate effects operated at multiple scales, resulting in a complex interplay of interactions within the food web. Regional synchrony of climatic conditions resulted in annual fluctuations in herbivore abundance and tree growth that were shared across elevations. At the same time, local environmental variation resulted in site differences in the plant, herbivore, and bird communities. These patterns resulted in a mosaic of top–down strengths across time and space, suggesting an overall pattern of limited effects of birds on plant growth, possibly interspersed with hotspots of trophic cascades.