Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus.

Methods and Findings

Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible–infected–recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R ₀, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71-vaccination period remained either comparable to or only slightly increased from levels prior to vaccination. The duration and strength of cross-protection following infection with EV-A71 or CV-A16 was estimated to be 9.95 wk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31, 23.40) in 68% of the population (95% CI: 37%, 96%). Our predictions are limited by the necessarily short and under-sampled time series and the possible circulation of unidentified serotypes, but, nonetheless, sensitivity analyses indicate that our results are robust in predicting that the vaccine should drastically reduce incidence of EV-A71 without a substantial competitive release of CV-A16.

Conclusions

The ability of our models to capture the observed epidemic cycles suggests that herd immunity is driving the epidemic dynamics caused by the multiple serotypes of enterovirus. Our results predict that the EV-A71 and CV-A16 serotypes provide a temporary immunizing effect against each other. Achieving high coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination would be necessary to eliminate the ongoing transmission of EV-A71, but serotype replacement by CV-A16 following EV-A71 vaccination is likely to be transient and minor compared to the corresponding reduction in the burden of EV-A71-associated HFMD. Therefore, a mass EV-A71 vaccination program of infants and young children should provide significant benefits in terms of a reduction in overall HFMD burden.     

Homology Directed Knockin of Point Mutations in the Zebrafish tardbp and fus Genes in ALS Using the CRISPR/Cas9 System

The methodology for site-directed editing of single nucleotides in the vertebrate genome is of considerable interest for research in biology and medicine. The clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated protein 9 type II (Cas9) system has emerged as a simple and inexpensive tool for editing genomic loci of interest in a variety of animal models. In zebrafish, error-prone non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) has been used as a simple method to disrupt gene function. We sought to develop a method to easily create site-specific SNPs in the zebrafish genome. Here, we report simple methodologies for using CRISPR/Cas9-mediated homology directed repair using single-stranded oligodeoxynucleotide donor templates (ssODN) for site-directed single nucleotide editing, for the first time in two disease-related genes, tardbp and fus.     

Prolonged Cerebral Circulation Time Is the Best Parameter for Predicting Vasospasm during Initial CT Perfusion in Subarachnoid Hemorrhagic Patients

Purpose

We sought to imitate angiographic cerebral circulation time (CCT) and create a similar index from baseline CT perfusion (CTP) to better predict vasospasm in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH).

Methods

Forty-one SAH patients with available DSA and CTP were retrospectively included. The vasospasm group was comprised of patients with deterioration in conscious functioning and newly developed luminal narrowing; remaining cases were classified as the control group. The angiography CCT (XA-CCT) was defined as the difference in TTP (time to peak) between the selected arterial ROIs and the superior sagittal sinus (SSS). Four arterial ROIs were selected to generate four corresponding XA-CCTs: the right and left anterior cerebral arteries (XA-CCT_RA2 and XA-CCT_LA2) and right- and left-middle cerebral arteries (XA-CCT_RM2 and XA-CCT_LM2). The CCTs from CTP (CT-CCT) were defined as the differences in TTP from the corresponding arterial ROIs and the SSS. Correlations of the different CCTs were calculated and diagnostic accuracy in predicting vasospasm was evaluated.

Results

Intra-class correlations ranged from 0.96 to 0.98. The correlations of XA-CCT_RA2, XA-CCT_RM2, XA-CCT_LA2, and XA-CCT_LM2 with the corresponding CT-CCTs were 0.64, 0.65, 0.53, and 0.68, respectively. All CCTs were significantly prolonged in the vasospasm group (5.8–6.4 s) except for XA-CCT_LA2. CT-CCT_A2 of 5.62 was the optimal cut-off value for detecting vasospasm with a sensitivity of 84.2% and specificity 82.4%

Conclusion

CT-CCTs can be used to interpret cerebral flow without deconvolution algorithms, and outperform both MTT and TTP in predicting vasospasm risk. This finding may help facilitate management of patients with SAH.     

Health Insurance Coverage and Hypertension Control in China: Results from the China Health and Nutrition Survey

Background

China has rapidly expanded health insurance coverage over the past decade but its impact on hypertension control is not well known. We analyzed factors associated with hypertension and the impact of health insurance on the management of hypertension in China from 1991 to 2009.

Methods and Findings

We used individual-level data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) for blood pressure, BMI, and other socio-economic variables. We employed multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the factors associated with prevalence and management of hypertension. We also estimated the effects of health insurance on management of hypertension using propensity score matching. We found that prevalence of hypertension increased from 23.8% (95% CI: 22.5–25.1%) in 1991 to 31.5% (28.5–34.7%) in 2009. The proportion of hypertensive patients aware of their condition increased from 31.7% (28.7–34.9%) to 51.1% (45.1–57.0%). The proportion of diagnosed hypertensive patients in treatment increased by 35.5% in the 19 years, while the proportion of those in treatment with controlled blood pressure remained low. Among diagnosed hypertensives, health insurance increased the probability of receiving treatment by 28.7% (95% CI: 10.6–46.7%) compared to propensity-matched individuals not covered by health insurance.

Conclusions

Hypertension continues to be a major health threat in China and effective control has not improved over time despite large improvements in awareness and treatment access. This suggests problems in treatment quality, medication adherence and patient understanding of the condition. Improvements in hypertension management, quality of medical care for those at high risk, and better health insurance packages are needed.     

Kinetic Curve Type Assessment for Classification of Breast Lesions Using Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MR Imaging

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to employ a kinetic model with dynamic contrast enhancement-magnetic resonance imaging to develop an approach that can efficiently distinguish malignant from benign lesions.ResultsAn average sensitivity of 82%, a specificity of 65%, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76, and a positive predictive value of 82% and negative predictive value of 63% was shown with the kinetic model (p = 0.017, 0.052, 0.068), as compared to an average sensitivity of 80%, a specificity of 55%, an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.69, and a positive predictive value of 79% and negative predictive value of 57% with the time-signal intensity curve method (p = 0.003, 0.004, 0.008). The diagnostic consistency of the three radiologists was shown by the κ-value, 0.857 (p<0.001) with the method based on the time-signal intensity curve and 0.826 (p<0.001) with the method of the kinetic model.ConclusionsAccording to the statistic results based on the 46 lesions, the kinetic modeling curve method showed higher sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values as compared with the time-signal intensity curve method in lesion classification.     

Schizandrin A Inhibits Microglia-Mediated Neuroninflammation through Inhibiting TRAF6-NF-κB and Jak2-Stat3 Signaling Pathways

Microglial-mediated neuroinflammation has been established as playing a vital role in pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders. Thus, rational regulation of microglia functions to inhibit inflammation injury may be a logical and promising approach to neurodegenerative disease therapy. The purposes of the present study were to explore the neuroprotective effects and potential molecular mechanism of Schizandrin A (Sch A), a lignin compound isolated from Schisandra chinesnesis. Our observations showed that Sch A could significantly down-regulate the increased production of nitric oxide (NO), tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and interleukin (IL)-6 induced by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) both in BV-2 cells and primary microglia cells. Moreover, Sch A exerted obvious neuroprotective effects against inflammatory injury in neurons when exposed to microglia-conditioned medium. Investigations of the mechanism showed the anti-inflammatory effect of Sch A involved the inhibition of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2) expression levels and inhibition of the LPS-induced TRAF6-IKKβ-NF-κB pathway. Furthermore, inhibition of Jak2-Stat3 pathway activation and Stat3 nuclear translocation also was observed. In conclusion, SchA can exert anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective effects by alleviating microglia-mediated neuroinflammation injury through inhibiting the TRAF6-IKKβ-NF-κB and Jak2-Stat3 signaling pathways.     

Remediation of Nitrogen-Contaminated Sediment Using Bioreactive,Thin-layer Capping with Biozeolite

In situ amendment of nitrogen-contaminated sediment using bioreactive, thin-layer capping (BTC) with biozeolite (i.e., zeolite with heterotrophic nitrifiers as well as aerobic denitrifiers attached) was studied herein. BTC with biozeolite for nitrogen-contaminated sediment management was evaluated through long-term (170 days) sediment incubation laboratory experiments. The results showed that BTC with relatively small dose rates (<10 kg m^?2) of biozeolite reduced the total nitrogen (TN) concentration in overlying water by over 90%, so it was effective in reducing the amount of N released from sediment. Higher-dose rates of biozeolite capping achieved an even higher removal efficiency. With the DO concentration of 1.5 ～ 6.5 mg L^?1 in overlying water, the reduction efficiency of TN in overlying water using BTC was higher than that less than 1 mg L^?1. In BTC systems, biological regeneration (i.e., heterotrophic nitrifiers attached to zeolite can regenerate the zeolite ion exchange capacity for ammonium) occurred in biozeolite which was saturated with ammonium during the nitrification period. In addition, TN contents in surface sediment in BTC systems were reduced at different levels after the experiment. These findings indicate that the BTC can be a feasible remedial approach to reduce N in overlying water and sediment in eutrophic water bodies. In the BTC, N load was reduced by the added biozeolite through adsorbing ammonium (NH₄⁺-N), converting NH₄⁺-N into nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^?-N) and nitrogen gas (N₂), and assimilating inorganic nitrogen.