The impact of economic crises on communicable disease transmission and control: a systematic review of the evidence

There is concern among public health professionals that the current economic downturn, initiated by the financial crisis that started in 2007, could precipitate the transmission of infectious diseases while also limiting capacity for control. Although studies have reviewed the potential effects of economic downturns on overall health, to our knowledge such an analysis has yet to be done focusing on infectious diseases. We performed a systematic literature review of studies examining changes in infectious disease burden subsequent to periods of crisis. The review identified 230 studies of which 37 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 30 found evidence of worse infectious disease outcomes during recession, often resulting from higher rates of infectious contact under poorer living circumstances, worsened access to therapy, or poorer retention in treatment. The remaining studies found either reductions in infectious disease or no significant effect. Using the paradigm of the "SIR" (susceptible-infected-recovered) model of infectious disease transmission, we examined the implications of these findings for infectious disease transmission and control. Key susceptible groups include infants and the elderly. We identified certain high-risk groups, including migrants, homeless persons, and prison populations, as particularly vulnerable conduits of epidemics during situations of economic duress. We also observed that the long-term impacts of crises on infectious disease are not inevitable: considerable evidence suggests that the magnitude of effect depends critically on budgetary responses by governments. Like other emergencies and natural disasters, preparedness for financial crises should include consideration of consequences for communicable disease control.     

Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge

Background

In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation.

Methods

Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks.

Results

For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern (“colder”) countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern (“warmer”) countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks.

Conclusions

Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles.     

Hypoxia-inducible factor 1 mediates increased expression of NADPH oxidase-2 in response to intermittent hypoxia

Sleep‐disordered breathing with recurrent apnea is associated with intermittent hypoxia (IH). Cardiovascular morbidities caused by IH are triggered by increased generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) by pro‐oxidant enzymes, especially NADPH oxidase‐2 (Nox2). Previous studies showed that (i) IH activates hypoxia‐inducible factor 1 (HIF‐1) in a ROS‐dependent manner and (ii) HIF‐1 is required for IH‐induced ROS generation, indicating the existence of a feed‐forward mechanism. In the present study, using multiple pharmacological and genetic approaches, we investigated whether IH‐induced expression of Nox2 is mediated by HIF‐1 in the central and peripheral nervous system of mice as well as in cultured cells. IH increased Nox2 mRNA, protein, and enzyme activity in PC12 pheochromocytoma cells as well as in wild‐type mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs). This effect was abolished or attenuated by blocking HIF‐1 activity through RNA interference or pharmacologic inhibition (digoxin or YC‐1) or by genetic knockout of HIF‐1α in MEFs. Increasing HIF‐1α expression by treating PC 12 cells with the iron chelator deferoxamine for 20 h or by transfecting them with HIF‐1alpha expression vector increased Nox2 expression and enzyme activity. Exposure of wild‐type mice to IH (8 h/day for 10 days) up‐regulated Nox2 mRNA expression in brain cortex, brain stem, and carotid body but not in cerebellum. IH did not induce Nox2 expression in cortex, brainstem, carotid body, or cerebellum of Hif1a^+/? mice, which do not manifest increased ROS or cardiovascular morbidities in response to IH. These results establish a pathogenic mechanism linking HIF‐1, ROS generation, and cardiovascular pathology in response to IH. J. Cell. Physiol. 226: 2925–2933, 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

International Dispersal of Dengue through Air Travel: Importation Risk for Europe

Background

The worldwide distribution of dengue is expanding, in part due to globalized traffic and trade. Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for dengue viruses (DENV) and is now established in numerous regions of Europe. Viremic travellers arriving in Europe from dengue-affected areas of the world can become catalysts of local outbreaks in Europe. Local dengue transmission in Europe is extremely rare, and the last outbreak occurred in 1927–28 in Greece. However, autochthonous transmission was reported from France in September 2010, and from Croatia between August and October 2010.

Methodology

We compiled data on areas affected by dengue in 2010 from web resources and surveillance reports, and collected national dengue importation data. We developed a hierarchical regression model to quantify the relationship between the number of reported dengue cases imported into Europe and the volume of airline travellers arriving from dengue-affected areas internationally.

Principal Findings

In 2010, over 5.8 million airline travellers entered Europe from dengue-affected areas worldwide, of which 703,396 arrived at 36 airports situated in areas where Ae. albopictus has been recorded. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for imported dengue into European countries was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17) for every increase of 10,000 travellers; in August, September, and October the rate ratios were 1.70 (95%CI: 1.23–2.35), 1.46 (95%CI: 1.02–2.10), and 1.35 (95%CI: 1.01–1.81), respectively. Two Italian cities where the vector is present received over 50% of all travellers from dengue-affected areas, yet with the continuing vector expansion more cities will be implicated in the future. In fact, 38% more travellers arrived in 2013 into those parts of Europe where Ae. albopictus has recently been introduced, compared to 2010.

Conclusions

The highest risk of dengue importation in 2010 was restricted to three months and can be ranked according to arriving traveller volume from dengue-affected areas into cities where the vector is present. The presence of the vector is a necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for DENV onward transmission, which depends on a number of additional factors. However, our empirical model can provide spatio-temporal elements to public health interventions.