Modeling scenarios for mitigating outbreaks in congregate settings

The explosive outbreaks of COVID-19 seen in congregate settings such as prisons and nursing homes, has highlighted a critical need for effective outbreak prevention and mitigation strategies for these settings. Here we consider how different types of control interventions impact the expected number of symptomatic infections due to outbreaks. Introduction of disease into the resident population from the community is modeled as a stochastic point process coupled to a branching process, while spread between residents is modeled via a deterministic compartmental model that accounts for depletion of susceptible individuals. Control is modeled as a proportional decrease in the number of susceptible residents, the reproduction number, and/or the proportion of symptomatic infections. This permits a range of assumptions about the density dependence of transmission and modes of protection by vaccination, depopulation and other types of control. We find that vaccination or depopulation can have a greater than linear effect on the expected number of cases. For example, assuming a reproduction number of 3.0 with density-dependent transmission, we find that preemptively reducing the size of the susceptible population by 20% reduced overall disease burden by 47%. In some circumstances, it may be possible to reduce the risk and burden of disease outbreaks by optimizing the way a group of residents are apportioned into distinct residential units. The optimal apportionment may be different depending on whether the goal is to reduce the probability of an outbreak occurring, or the expected number of cases from outbreak dynamics. In other circumstances there may be an opportunity to implement reactive disease control measures in which the number of susceptible individuals is rapidly reduced once an outbreak has been detected to occur. Reactive control is most effective when the reproduction number is not too high, and there is minimal delay in implementing control. We highlight the California state prison system as an example for how these findings provide a quantitative framework for understanding disease transmission in congregate settings. Our approach and accompanying interactive website (https://phoebelu.shinyapps.io/DepopulationModels/) provides a quantitative framework to evaluate the potential impact of policy decisions governing infection control in outbreak settings.     

Embryonic evidence uncovers convergent origins of laryngeal echolocation in bats

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Induction of ciliary orientation by matrix patterning and characterization of mucociliary transport

Impaired mucociliary clearance (MCC) is a key feature of many airway diseases, including asthma, bronchiectasis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cystic fibrosis, and primary ciliary dyskinesia. To improve MCC and develop new treatments for these diseases requires a thorough understanding of how mucus concentration, mucus composition, and ciliary activity affect MCC, and how different therapeutics impact this process. Although differentiated cultures of human airway epithelial cells are useful for investigations of MCC, the extent of ciliary coordination in these cultures varies, and the mechanisms controlling ciliary orientation are not completely understood. By introducing a pattern of ridges and grooves into the underlying collagen substrate, we demonstrate for the first time, to our knowledge, that changes in the extracellular matrix can induce ciliary alignment. Remarkably, 90% of human airway epithelial cultures achieved continuous directional mucociliary transport (MCT) when grown on the patterned substrate. These cultures maintain transport for months, allowing carefully controlled investigations of MCC over a wide range of normal and pathological conditions. To characterize the system, we measured the transport of bovine submaxillary gland mucin (BSM) under several conditions. Transport of 5% BSM was significantly reduced compared with that of 2% BSM, and treatment of 5% BSM with the reducing agent tris(2-carboxyethyl)phosphine (TCEP) reduced viscosity and increased the rate of MCT by approximately twofold. Addition of a small amount of high-molecular-weight DNA increased mucus viscosity and reduced MCT by ～75%, demonstrating that the composition of mucus, as well as the concentration, can have significant effects on MCT. Our results demonstrate that a simple patterning of the collagen substrate results in highly coordinated ciliated cultures that develop directional MCT, and can be used to investigate the mechanisms controlling the regulation of ciliary orientation. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that this method provides an improved system for studying the effects of mucus composition and therapeutic agents on MCC.     

Linkage analysis of a DNA marker localized to 20p12 and multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2A.

A DNA segment D20S5 isolated from a chromosome 19/20 flow-sorted library was shown to identify two restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs) with MspI and PvuII. The probe was localized by hybridization in situ to 20p12, the putative site of an interstitial deletion in some MEN 2A and 2B patients. Linkage of the D20S5 and MEN 2A loci was excluded at theta less than or equal to .13 using two large MEN 2A kindreds. These data suggest that the MEN 2A locus may not lie within 20p12 as previously suggested.     

Transfer of Hessian fly resistance from ‘Chaupon’ rye to hexaploid wheat via a 2BS/2RL wheat-rye chromosome translocation

Summary Four wheat-rye lines derived from a cross between hexaploid wheat ND 7532 and Chaupon rye were homogeneous for resistance to biotype L of the Hessian fly,Mayetiola destructor. Because the wheat parent was susceptible and the rye parent was resistant to larval feeding, resistance was derived from rye. Resistance of Chaupon and the wheat-rye lines was expressed as larval antibiosis. First-instar larvae died after feeding on plants. Chromosomal analyses using C- and N-banding techniques were performed on plants of each line to identify genomes and structural changes of chromosomes. Results showed that two of the resistant lines were chromosome addition lines carrying either the complete rye chromosome,2R, or only the long arm of2R. The other two resistant lines were identified as being2BS/ 2RL wheat-rye translocation lines. It was concluded, therefore, that the long arm of rye chromosome2R carries a gene or gene complex that conditions antibiosis to Hessian fly larvae and, in the2BS/2RL translocation lines, this rye chromatin is cytologically stable and can be used directly in wheat breeding programs.Cooperative investigations of the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station, Departments of Agronomy, Entomology, and Plant Pathology, Wheat Genetics Resource Center, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Kansas State University. Contribution No. 89-507-JPartly supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft     

Detection of submicroscopic deletions in band 17p13 in patients with the Miller-Dieker syndrome

The Miller-Dieker syndrome (MDS), a syndrome with lissencephaly, distinctive craniofacial features, growth impairment, and profound developmental failure, has been associated with a deletion of the distal part of chromosome band 17p13. A minority of patients with the syndrome do not have a deletion detectable with current cytogenetic techniques. Using three highly polymorphic DNA probes (pYNZ22, pYNH37.3, and p144D6) we have detected microdeletions in three MDS patients, two of whom had no visible abnormalities of chromosome 17. Loci defined by two of the DNA probes, pYNZ22 and pYNH37.3, were deleted in all three patients. The most distal locus, defined by p144D6, was present in one MDS patient, possibly defining the distal limits of the MDS region in band 17p13.3. None of these loci were absent in one case of lissencephaly without MDS.     

Evolutionary relationships of a plant-pathogenic mycoplasmalike organism and Acholeplasma laidlawii deduced from two ribosomal protein gene sequences.

The families within the class Mollicutes are distinguished by their morphologies, nutritional requirements, and abilities to metabolize certain compounds. Biosystematic classification of the plant-pathogenic mycoplasmalike organisms (MLOs) has been difficult because these organisms have not been cultured in vitro, and hence their nutritional requirements have not been determined nor have physiological characterizations been possible. To investigate the evolutionary relationship of the MLOs to other members of the class Mollicutes, a segment of a ribosomal protein operon was cloned and sequenced from an aster yellows-type MLO which is pathogenic for members of the genus Oenothera and from Acholeplasma laidlawii. The deduced amino acid sequence data from the rpl22 and rps3 genes indicate that the MLOs are more closely related to A. laidlawii than to animal mycoplasmas, confirming previous results from 16S rRNA sequence comparisons. This conclusion is also supported by the finding that the UGA codon is not read as a tryptophan codon in the MLO and A. laidlawii, in contrast to its usage in Mycoplasma capricolum.     

Assessment of wound healing of tagged gray (Eschrichtius robustus) and blue (Balaenoptera musculus) whales in the eastern North Pacific using long‐term series of photographs

Tags have been used to examine migration routes and habitat use of large whales for >40 yr, however, evaluation of tag wound healing has largely been short‐term, anecdotal or generalized. This study developed methods for systematic photographic assessment of long‐term external consequences of tag placement, to determine potential differences in wound healing between species and tag types and thus advise future tagging efforts to possibly minimize undesirable side effects. Tag site appearance and healing characteristics were evaluated by two reviewers and a time series evaluated by five veterinarians from photographs during 995 postdeployment encounters with 34 gray and 63 blue whales tagged in the North Pacific. Blue whale resightings were less frequent, but spanned a longer time period due to earlier tag deployments than the more frequent gray whale follow‐up observations. Swelling occurred in 74% of reencountered gray whales, with the highest frequency 6 mo postdeployment. Swellings were common in blue whales with early tag designs but rare with current models. Depressions occurred in 82% of gray and 71% of blue whales. This study demonstrates the value of follow‐up studies of tagged animals and systematic scoring of photographs to quantitatively compare tag response.