Contribution of crop model structure,parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments

Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple‐ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple‐ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was ?4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981–2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple‐ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources.     

IRAP and REMAP: two new retrotransposon-based DNA fingerprinting techniques

 The BARE-1 retrotransposon is an active, dispersed, and highly abundant component of the genome of barley (Hordeum vulgare) and other species in its genus. Like all retrotransposons of its kind, BARE-1 is bounded by long terminal repeats (LTRs). We have developed two amplification-based marker methods based on the position of given LTRs within the genome. The IRAP (Inter-Retrotransposon Amplified Polymorphism) markers are generated by the proximity of two LTRs using outward-facing primers annealing to LTR target sequences. In REMAP (REtrotransposon-Microsatellite Amplified Polymorphism), amplification between LTRs proximal to simple sequence repeats such as constitute microsatellites produces markers. The methods can distinguish between barley varieties and produce fingerprint patterns for species across the genus. The patterns indicate that although the BARE-1 family of retrotransposons is disperse, these elements are locally clustered or nested and often found near tandem arrays of a simple sequence repeat. Received: 30 June 1998 / Accepted: 21 August 1998     

Genetic variability in sunflower (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Helianthus annuus</Emphasis> L.) and in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Helianthus</Emphasis> genus as assessed by retrotransposon-based molecular markers

The inter-retrotransposon amplified polymorphism (IRAP) protocol was applied for the first time within the genus Helianthus to assess intraspecific variability based on retrotransposon sequences among 36 wild accessions and 26 cultivars of Helianthus annuus L., and interspecific variability among 39 species of Helianthus. Two groups of LTRs, one belonging to a Copia-like retroelement and the other to a putative retrotransposon of unknown nature (SURE) have been isolated, sequenced and primers were designed to obtain IRAP fingerprints. The number of polymorphic bands in H. annuus wild accessions is as high as in Helianthus species. If we assume that a polymorphic band can be related to a retrotransposon insertion, this result suggests that retrotransposon activity continued after Helianthus speciation. Calculation of similarity indices from binary matrices (Shannon’s and Jaccard’s indices) show that variability is reduced among domesticated H. annuus. On the contrary, similarity indices among Helianthus species were as large as those observed among wild H. annuus accessions, probably related to their scattered geographic distribution. Principal component analysis of IRAP fingerprints allows the distinction between perennial and annual Helianthus species especially when the SURE element is concerned.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">ScreenMill</Emphasis>: A freely available software suite for growth measurement,analysis and visualization of high-throughput screen data

Background  

Many high-throughput genomic experiments, such as Synthetic Genetic Array and yeast two-hybrid, use colony growth on solid media as a screen metric. These experiments routinely generate over 100,000 data points, making data analysis a time consuming and painstaking process. Here we describe ScreenMill, a new software suite that automates image analysis and simplifies data review and analysis for high-throughput biological experiments.     

Deconvoluting post-transplant immunity: cell subset-specific mapping reveals pathways for activation and expansion of memory T, monocytes and B cells

A major challenge for the field of transplantation is the lack of understanding of genomic and molecular drivers of early post-transplant immunity. The early immune response creates a complex milieu that determines the course of ensuing immune events and the ultimate outcome of the transplant. The objective of the current study was to mechanistically deconvolute the early immune response by purifying and profiling the constituent cell subsets of the peripheral blood. We employed genome-wide profiling of whole blood and purified CD4, CD8, B cells and monocytes in tandem with high-throughput laser-scanning cytometry in 10 kidney transplants sampled serially pre-transplant, 1, 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks. Cytometry confirmed early cell subset depletion by antibody induction and immunosuppression. Multiple markers revealed the activation and proliferative expansion of CD45RO(+)CD62L(-) effector memory CD4/CD8 T cells as well as progressive activation of monocytes and B cells. Next, we mechanistically deconvoluted early post-transplant immunity by serial monitoring of whole blood using DNA microarrays. Parallel analysis of cell subset-specific gene expression revealed a unique spectrum of time-dependent changes and functional pathways. Gene expression profiling results were validated with 157 different probesets matching all 65 antigens detected by cytometry. Thus, serial blood cell monitoring reflects the profound changes in blood cell composition and immune activation early post-transplant. Each cell subset reveals distinct pathways and functional programs. These changes illuminate a complex, early phase of immunity and inflammation that includes activation and proliferative expansion of the memory effector and regulatory cells that may determine the phenotype and outcome of the kidney transplant.