A model of the evolution of dichogamy incorporating sex-ratio selection, anther-stigma interference, and inbreeding depression

Historically, explanations for the evolution of floral traits that reduce self-fertilization have tended to focus on selection to avoid inbreeding depression. However, there is growing support for the hypothesis that such traits also play a role in promoting efficient pollen dispersal by reducing anther-stigma interference. The relative importance of these two selective pressures is currently a popular topic of investigation. To date, there has been no theoretical exploration of the relative contributions of selection to avoid the genetic costs of self-fertilization and selection to promote efficient pollen dispersal on the evolution of floral traits. We developed a population genetic model to examine the influence of these factors on the evolution of dichogamy: the temporal separation of anther maturation and stigma receptivity. Our analysis indicates that anther-stigma interference can favor dichogamy even in the absence of in-breeding depression. Although anther-stigma interference and inbreeding depression are the key forces driving the initial evolution of dichogamy, selection to match the timing of pollen dispersal to the availability of ovules at the population level becomes a more potent force opposing the further evolution of dichogamy as the extent of temporal separation increases. This result may help to explain otherwise puzzling phenomena such as why dichogamy is rarely complete in nature and why dichogamy tends to be associated with asynchronous flower presentation.     

The role of local species abundance in the evolution of pollinator attraction in flowering plants

We present a population genetic model that incorporates aspects of pollinator efficiency and abundance to examine the effect of the local plant community on the evolution of floral trait specialization. Our model predicts that plant species evolve to be pollinator specialists on the most effective and common pollinators when their abundance is low relative to other plant species in the community (i.e., conspecific pollen is relatively rare) and evolve to be pollinator generalists when they are numerically dominant (i.e., conspecific pollen is abundant). Strong flower constancy also favors generalist floral traits. Furthermore, generalist species are predicted to differentiate when there is a concave trade-off in attracting pollinator species with different floral trait preferences. This result implies that populations that evolve toward a generalist strategy may be more prone to speciation. Ours is the first theoretical model to include local species abundance explicitly, despite the fact that it has been previously identified as an important factor in the evolution of plant specialization. Our results add a layer of ecological complexity to previous models of floral evolution and therefore have the potential to improve our power to predict circumstances under which specialized and generalized plant-pollinator interactions should evolve.     

The accuracy of several multiple sequence alignment programs for proteins

Background  

There have been many algorithms and software programs implemented for the inference of multiple sequence alignments of protein and DNA sequences. The "true" alignment is usually unknown due to the incomplete knowledge of the evolutionary history of the sequences, making it difficult to gauge the relative accuracy of the programs.     

Compression or tension? The stress distribution in the proximal femur

Background  

Questions regarding the distribution of stress in the proximal human femur have never been adequately resolved. Traditionally, by considering the femur in isolation, it has been believed that the effect of body weight on the projecting neck and head places the superior aspect of the neck in tension. A minority view has proposed that this region is in compression because of muscular forces pulling the femur into the pelvis. Little has been done to study stress distributions in the proximal femur. We hypothesise that under physiological loading the majority of the proximal femur is in compression and that the internal trabecular structure functions as an arch, transferring compressive stresses to the femoral shaft.     

Time-of-day mediates the influences of extended wake and sleep restriction on simulated driving

Although a nonlinear time-of-day and prior wake interaction on performance has been well documented, two recent studies have aimed to incorporate the influences of sleep restriction into this paradigm. Through the use of sleep-restricted forced desynchrony protocols, both studies reported a time-of-day × sleep restriction interaction, as well as a time-of-day × prior wake × sleep dose three-way interaction. The current study aimed to investigate these interactions on simulated driving performance, a more complex task with ecological validity for the problem of fatigued driving. The driving performance of 41 male participants (mean?±?SD: 22.8 ±2.2 yrs) was assessed on a 10-min simulated driving task with the standard deviation of lateral position (SDLAT) measured. Using a between-group design, participants were subjected to either a control condition of 9.33 h of sleep/18.66 h of wake, a moderate sleep-restriction (SR) condition of 7 h of sleep/21 h of wake, or a severe SR condition of 4.66 h of sleep/23.33 h of wake. In each condition, participants were tested at 2.5-h intervals after waking across 7 × 28-h d of forced desynchrony. Driving sessions occurred at nine doses of prior wake, within six divisions of the circadian cycle based on core body temperature (CBT). Mixed-models analyses of variance (ANOVAs) revealed significant main effects of time-of-day, prior wake, sleep debt, and sleep dose on SDLAT. Additionally, significant two-way interactions of time-of-day × prior wake and time-of-day × sleep debt, as well as significant three-way interactions of time-of-day × prior wake × sleep debt and time-of-day × sleep debt × sleep dose were observed. Although limitations such as the presence of practice effects and large standard errors are noted, the study concludes with three findings. The main effects demonstrate that extending wake, reducing sleep, and driving at poor times of day all significantly impair driving performance at an individual level. In addition to this, combining either extended wake or a sleep debt with the early morning hours greatly decreases driving performance. Finally, operating under the influence of a reduced sleep dose can greatly decrease performance at all times of the day.     

Meta-analysis for surrogacy: accelerated failure time models and semicompeting risks modeling

There has been great recent interest in the medical and statistical literature in the assessment and validation of surrogate endpoints as proxies for clinical endpoints in medical studies. More recently, authors have focused on using metaanalytical methods for quantification of surrogacy. In this article, we extend existing procedures for analysis based on the accelerated failure time model to this setting. An advantage of this approach relative to proportional hazards model is that it allows for analysis in the semicompeting risks setting, where we model the region where the surrogate endpoint occurs before the true endpoint. Several estimation methods and attendant inferential procedures are presented. In addition, between- and within-trial methods for evaluating surrogacy are developed; a novel principal components procedure is developed for quantifying trial-level surrogacy. The methods are illustrated by application to data from several studies in colorectal cancer.     

Bayesian adaptive trial design for a newly validated surrogate endpoint

The evaluation of surrogate endpoints for primary use in future clinical trials is an increasingly important research area, due to demands for more efficient trials coupled with recent regulatory acceptance of some surrogates as 'valid.' However, little consideration has been given to how a trial that utilizes a newly validated surrogate endpoint as its primary endpoint might be appropriately designed. We propose a novel Bayesian adaptive trial design that allows the new surrogate endpoint to play a dominant role in assessing the effect of an intervention, while remaining realistically cautious about its use. By incorporating multitrial historical information on the validated relationship between the surrogate and clinical endpoints, then subsequently evaluating accumulating data against this relationship as the new trial progresses, we adaptively guard against an erroneous assessment of treatment based upon a truly invalid surrogate. When the joint outcomes in the new trial seem plausible given similar historical trials, we proceed with the surrogate endpoint as the primary endpoint, and do so adaptively-perhaps stopping the trial for early success or inferiority of the experimental treatment, or for futility. Otherwise, we discard the surrogate and switch adaptive determinations to the original primary endpoint. We use simulation to test the operating characteristics of this new design compared to a standard O'Brien-Fleming approach, as well as the ability of our design to discriminate trustworthy from untrustworthy surrogates in hypothetical future trials. Furthermore, we investigate possible benefits using patient-level data from 18 adjuvant therapy trials in colon cancer, where disease-free survival is considered a newly validated surrogate endpoint for overall survival.     

Temporal Variation in Seed Predation by Insects in a Population of Syagrus romanzoffiana (Arecaceae) in Santa Catarina Island, SC, Brazil

Insect seed predation may vary depending on seed production. The present study considers the hypothesis that the rates of seed predation tend to be smaller in years of higher fruit production. Thus, we monitored the production of fruits and predation of seeds of the palm Syagrus romanzoffiana over 2?years in the Atlantic Forest (Parque Municipal da Lagoa do Peri, Florianópolis, SC, Brazil), between July 2006 and June 2008. Plots of 0.25?m² were fitted under 20 mother plants and fruits were monthly collected for assessment of abundance and seed predation. There was variation in fruit production between the 2?years and among reproductive plants. Predation rates were high and occurred in the predispersal phase by the Curculionidae Revena rubiginosa Boheman, Anchylorhynchus aegrotus Fahraeus, and Anchylorhynchus variabilis Gyllenhal. Seed predation by these species of Anchylorhynchus is first registered in the present study. In average, about 60% of the seeds monthly produced in the population tend to escape insect predation in year of high or low production, becoming available for recruitment. The predation rate was not related to the amount of fruits produced per reproductive plant. Also, different than expected, there was a positive relation between the rates of seed predation and the total of fruits produced monthly on the plots. Thus, no evidence for the satiation of insect seed predators was found in this study with S. romanzoffiana.