Scale and uncertainty in modeled soil organic carbon stock changes for US croplands using a process‐based model

Process‐based model analyses are often used to estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), particularly at regional to continental scales. However, uncertainties are rarely evaluated, and so it is difficult to determine how much confidence can be placed in the results. Our objective was to quantify uncertainties across multiple scales in a process‐based model analysis, and provide 95% confidence intervals for the estimates. Specifically, we used the Century ecosystem model to estimate changes in SOC stocks for US croplands during the 1990s, addressing uncertainties in model inputs, structure and scaling of results from point locations to regions and the entire country. Overall, SOC stocks increased in US croplands by 14.6 Tg C yr^?1 from 1990 to 1995 and 17.5 Tg C yr^?1 during 1995 to 2000, and uncertainties were ±22% and ±16% for the two time periods, respectively. Uncertainties were inversely related to spatial scale, with median uncertainties at the regional scale estimated at ±118% and ±114% during the early and latter part of 1990s, and even higher at the site scale with estimates at ±739% and ±674% for the time periods, respectively. This relationship appeared to be driven by the amount of the SOC stock change; changes in stocks that exceeded 200 Gg C yr^?1 represented a threshold where uncertainties were always lower than ±100%. Consequently, the amount of uncertainty in estimates derived from process‐based models will partly depend on the level of SOC accumulation or loss. In general, the majority of uncertainty was associated with model structure in this application, and so attaining higher levels of precision in the estimates will largely depend on improving the model algorithms and parameterization, as well as increasing the number of measurement sites used to evaluate the structural uncertainty.     

Animal Migrations: Endangered Phenomena

Current conservation research focuses on diminishing speciesdiversity, minimal viable populations, and on the successivedemise of habitats and populations that leads species to extinction.In this paper we utilize the monarch butterfly's remarkablemigration and overwintering biology as a paradigm of a new conservationtheme: endangered phenomenon. An endangered phenomenon is aspectacular aspect of the life history of an animal or plantspecies involving a large number of individuals that is threatenedwith impoverishment or demise; the species per se need not bein peril, rather, the phenomenon it exhibits is at stake. Weenvision the near future with increasing numbers of speciesreduced in range and so constrained in numbers that they canno longer exhibit these characteristic spectacles.     

Effects of density-dependence and weather on population changes of English passerines using a non-experimental paradigm

The Common Birds Census documents changes in the populations of the more abundant British land birds. Here we analyse the CBC data for various English passerines to discover the separate effects of weather and of density-dependent feedback on their annual population changes. Density dependence is generally apparent in the data from woodland plots, less so in those from farmland. There are clear effects of weather, particularly in farmland. Prolonged snowfall in winter reduces populations of most species; frost and low temperatures appear much less important. Rainfall in March and April increases numbers censused in the spring but this may be an artefact. We discuss ways in which analyses such as these should be taken forward.
We consider whether this work is respectable science, arguing that monitoring through the CBC goes much further than mere surveillance of numbers, that such monitoring is important in wildlife management, and that density dependence is not a bankrupt paradigm. Long-term data gathering is an essential part of ecological science, even in programmes not designed at the outset to test specific hypotheses.     

Long-term Population Trends in White-Footed Mice and the Impact of Supplemental Food and Shelter

Central to most models of population regulation is the ideathat the degree of intraspecific competition is in some wayproportional to the availability of limiting resources. Althoughlaboratory research has demonstrated a number of proximate mechanismsby which behavior might affect population growth, little isknown about the resources that are actually limiting populationdensity in the field or about how animals might compete forthem. Long-term field studies reveal that the white-footed mouse,Peromyscus leucopus, exhibits two types of pronounced changesin density: intra-annual (seasonal) and inter-annual. The formerseem to be due ultimately to climate and the lack of winterbreeding, but populations often decline sharply in late summerin the midst of plentiful food; fall recruitment of new animalsis density-dependent and usually poor. Differences in peak densitiesfrom one year to the next as high as 13-fold have been recorded. Weather, shelter, and food are possible ultimate limiting resources.Food has received themost attention, but supplemental feedingexperiments have yielded mixed results. A review of the socialbehavior of this polygnous species suggests that each sex islimited by different combinations of factors. Females may defenda food source and nest sites; males may search actively forfemales at low adult densities, covering large areas, and defendaccess to females at high adult densities. Additional long-term field studies are needed, both to providedirection to laboratory research on proximate mechanisms andto provide the data base for understanding the role of weather,food, and shelter as ultimate limiting factors. Enough short-termstudies have been published to permit comparisons across habitatsand through time which will give a better perspective on climateand habitat variables. Field experiments are necessary to demonstratethe operation of proximate behavioral, physiological, and geneticmechanisms of population regulation in natural populations.     

Considerations for measuring genetic variation and population structure with multilocus fingerprinting

Multilocus DNA fingerprinting provides a cost-effective means to rapidly assay genetic variation at many loci. While this makes the technique particularly attractive for studies of evolution and conservation biology, fingerprint data can be difficult to interpret. Measurement errors inherent with the technique force investigators to group similar-sized alleles (bands) into discrete bins before estimating genetic parameters. If too little error is accounted for in this process homologous alleles will not be grouped in a common bin, whereas overestimated error can produce bins with homoplasic alleles. We used simulations and empirical data for two frog species ( Rana luteiventris and Hyla regilla ) to demonstrate that mean band-sharing ( S¯_xy ) and heterozygosity ( H ¯_E) are a function of both bin width and band profile complexity (i.e. number and distribution of bands). These estimators are also sensitive to the number of lanes included in the analysis when bin width is wide and a floating bin algorithm is employed. Multilocus estimates of H ¯_E were highly correlated with S¯_xy and thus provide no additional information about genetic variation. Estimates of population subdivision ( F ^ and Φ^_ST) appeared robust to changes in bin size. We also examined the issue of statistical independence for band-sharing data when comparisons are made among all samples. This analysis indicated that the covariance between band-sharing statistics was very small and not statistically different from zero. We recommend that sensitivity analyses for bin size be used to improve confidence in the biological interpretation of multilocus fingerprints, and that the covariance structure for band-sharing statistics be examined.     

The Morphology of Paranemertes sanjuanensis sp.n. (Nemertea, Monostilifera) from Washington, U.S.A.

The morphology of Paranemertes sanjuanensis sp.n., a new monostiliferous hoplonemertean from San Juan Island, Washington, is described. As in other members of the genus, P. sanjuanensis has numerous eyespots, a proboscis sheath that extends one-half to two-thirds the length of the body, well-developed cephalic and subepidermal glands, and two distinct layers of longitudinal muscles in the body wall of the cerebral region. A precerebral septum is absent, as only fibers from the inner longitudinal layer extend into the proboscis. The cerebral sense organs are well developed and lie just anterior to the brain. The esophagus opens into the rhynchodaeum and leads posteriad, into a highly folded stomach. The intestinal caecum is short and lacks anteriorly directed pouches. Gravid females have numerous ovaries in the posterior two-thirds of their bodies. The proboscis is relatively large and contains an average of 5 reserve stylet sacs, each of which contains 2 to 3 stylets. The stylets are stout and have prominent, helically-arranged grooves.     

Long-term Respiratory Cost of Maintenance and Growth of Field-grown Young Hinoki Cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa)

Respiration rate of the entire above-ground parts of field-grown8-year-old hinoki cypress [Chamaecyparis obtusa(Sieb. et Zucc.)Endl.] was measured at monthly intervals over a 5-year period,to evaluate the trend in proportion of maintenance and growthcomponents of respiration with stand development. Representativesample trees were selected for respiration measurements. Theannual respiration rates of individual sample trees were combinedand partitioned into maintenance and growth components by regressingspecific respiration rate on mean relative growth rate. Maintenanceand growth respiration coefficients generated in this way were5.2 mol CO₂kg^-1year^-1and 39 mol  CO₂kg^-1, which are equivalentto 14.3 mg C kg^-1C h^-1(at mean annual air temperature of 15.1°C) and 0.94 kg C kg^-1C. Considering the maintenance andgrowth respiration coefficients, and phytomass and phytomassincrement of individual trees in the stand, the maintenanceand growth respiration rates of the stand were estimated. Theproportion of the maintenance respiration increased, whereasthat of the growth respiration decreased with stand development,due to decreasing relative growth rate.Copyright 1997 Annalsof Botany Company Chamaecyparis obtusa; growth respiration coefficient; hinoki; maintenance respiration coefficient; stand respiration