Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi‐species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi‐model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi‐stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2–4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process‐based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long‐term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N₂O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%–40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N₂O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N₂O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2–4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E‐median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N₂O emissions. Yield‐scaled N₂O emissions (N₂O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three‐model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process‐based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N₂O emissions at field scale is discussed.     

The C-terminal domain of the secretin PulD contains the binding site for its cognate chaperone, PulS, and confers PulS dependence on pIVf1 function

Related outer membrane proteins, termed secretins, participate in the secretion of macromolecules across the outer membrane of many Gram-negative bacteria. In the pullulanase-secretion system, PulS, an outer membrane-associated lipoprotein, is required both for the integrity and the proper outer membrane localization of the PulD secretin. Here we show that the PulS-binding site is located within the C-terminal 65 residues of PulD. Addition of this domain to the filamentous phage secretin, pIV, or to the unrelated maltose-binding protein rendered both proteins dependent on PulS for stability. A chimeric protein composed of bacteriophage f1 pIV and the C-terminal domain of PulD required properly localized PulS to support phage assembly. An in vivo complex formed between the pIV-PulD₆₅ chimera and PulS was detected by co-immunoprecipitation and by affinity chromatography.     

Foraging behavior of lactating northern fur seals (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Callorhinus ursinus</Emphasis>) in the Commander Islands,Russia

We characterized the foraging behavior and habitat associations of lactating female northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) from two of four rookeries comprising the stable population on the Commander Islands (CI). The CI females included in the study were from Severo-Zapadnoe rookery (SZR in 2008 and 2009) and Servernoe rookery (SR in 2009) which are 16 km apart on the northern tip of Bering Island (BI). We used satellite-linked tags and time–depth recorders to track the animals at sea and record dive behavior. For SZR females, the average foraging trip duration, mean dive depth, and maximum travel distance for both years were 3.4 ± 1.42 days, 16 ± 9.8 m, and 85 ± 59.6 km, respectively. The same measures for SR females were 4.4 ± 1.90 days, 20 ± 9.7 m, and 159 ± 70.8 km, respectively. The mean duration of foraging trips, mean number of bouts per trip and trip duration, mean direction of foraging trips, and size of foraging areas were significantly different between females from SR and SZR. Foraging trips of females from neither rookery were associated with high chl-a concentration. Overall, females on the CI appeared to expend less time and energy during foraging trips than females on the Pribilof Islands, and this may explain why the latter population is declining while the CI population is stable.     

Complications of tonsillectomy and adenoidectomy in 9409 children observed overnight.

In attempts to minimize the cost of health care, physicians are reducing the duration of hospital stay. Traditionally, at the Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, otherwise healthy children undergoing adenoidectomy, tonsillectomy or adenotonsillectomy have been admitted the morning of surgery and discharged from hospital at 7 am the next day. The nursing records of 9409 patients aged 17 years or less who were managed in this way between 1980 and 1984 were reviewed to determine the occurrence of complications during the observation period. A total of 202 patients (2.15%) bled during the observation period. Of the 202, 6 (0.06% of all the patients) required a second general anesthetic for hemostasis; 1 of these 6 patients and 5 others required blood transfusions. Discharge was delayed for 42 patients (0.45% of all the patients) because of postoperative bleeding and for 57 patients (0.6%) for a variety of other reasons. Delayed discharge for reasons other than hemorrhage was more frequent among children less than 2 years of age and those over 12 years of age. The authors concluded that children undergoing adenoidectomy could safely be discharged the same day after 6 hours of observation following surgery. However, as a substantial number of children bled from the tonsillar fossa more than 6 hours after surgery, the efficacy of periodic examination of the oral cavity during the observation period in reducing the rate of hemorrhage after 6 hours must be evaluated before a same-day discharge program is established for children undergoing adenotonsillectomy.     

Inclusion bodies in pinealocytes of the cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus)

Pinealocytes of the cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus) often contain large (2-6 micron diameter) intracytoplasmic inclusions, the function of which is not known. These inclusions may represent nucleolus-like bodies, mineral deposits, secretory products or viral inclusions. In this study these inclusions were classified as type A, B or C inclusions based on the amount of electron-dense material interspersed within the finely granular material comprising the bulk of these inclusions. Each type of inclusion was analyzed by X-ray microanalysis and enzymatic proteinaceous digestion. X-ray microanalysis of these inclusions differed both quantitatively and semiquantitatively from that of human or gerbil pineal concretions, the latter two of which are extracellular deposits. Pronase, a proteolytic enzyme, digested the electron-dense material only after longer times of tissue exposure to this enzyme in contrast to the easily digested, finely granular matrix-like material of these inclusions. Such intrapinealocytic inclusions have only been observed in the cotton rat. Their functional significance remains unknown.     

Processing of filamentous phage pre-coat protein: Effect of sequence variations near the signal peptidase cleavage site

The amber lesion of am8H1, the only conditional lethal mutant in a filamentous phage coat protein gene, lies two codons after the signal peptidase cleavage site (Boeke & Model, 1979). We sequenced the DNA of 15 independently isolated pseudorevertants of this mutant. We studied the production of unprocessed and processed coat protein in pseudorevertant-infected cells and in amber mutant-infected suppressor strains. These studies show that serine, glutamine, tyrosine or leucine residues can replace the glutamic acid residue found in the wild-type coat protein at position 2. Reversion to tyrosine or leucine was always accompanied by a second mutation, which leads to the replacement of asparagine by aspartic acid at position 12. Leucine and, to a lesser extent, tyrosine seem to inhibit processing since pre-coat protein accumulates in the infected cells. Filamentous phage particles were shown to migrate on agarose gels with a mobility that reflects the charge of the “external”, N-terminal domain of their major coat protein.     

Low-frequency infection of F- bacteria by transducing particles of filamentous bacteriophages.

Filamentous particles containing single-stranded plasmid and bacteriophage DNA are able to infect F- Escherichia coli at frequencies of approximately 10(-6). This infection is dependent on an intact particle and requires the products of the tolQ, tolR, and tolA genes of the bacteria. The addition of CaCl2 can increase the frequency about 100-fold, presumably by increasing the concentration of particles at the bacterial surface.     

Iron-coproporphyrin III is a natural cofactor in bacterioferritin from the anaerobic bacterium Desulfovibrio desulfuricans

A bacterioferritin was recently isolated from the anaerobic sulphate-reducing bacterium Desulfovibrio desulfuricans ATCC 27774 [Romão et al. (2000) Biochemistry 39, 6841–6849]. Although its properties are in general similar to those of the other bacterioferritins, it contains a haem quite distinct from the haem B, found in bacterioferritins from aerobic organisms. Using visible and NMR spectroscopies, as well as mass spectrometry analysis, the haem is now unambiguously identified as iron-coproporphyrin III, the first example of such a prosthetic group in a biological system. This unexpected finding is discussed in the framework of haem biosynthetic pathways in anaerobes and particularly in sulphate-reducing bacteria.     

Cardiac responses to first ever submergence in double-crested cormorant chicks (Phalacrocorax auritus)

Heart rates were recorded from double-crested cormorant chicks during their first ever and subsequent voluntary head submergences and dives, as well as during longer dives made after the chicks were accustomed to diving. Despite variation between chicks, the cardiac response to first ever and subsequent voluntary submergence (head submergences and dives) was similar to the response observed in adult cormorants. Upon submersion the heart rate fell rapidly when pre-submersion heart rate was high (325–350 beats min⁻¹). The heart rate established within the first second of voluntary submergence was between 230 and 285 beats min⁻¹, well above resting heart rate (143 beats min⁻¹). The same initial cardiac response occurred during longer dives performed after the chicks were accustomed to diving. In these dives the heart rate remained at the level established on submersion, unlike the response observed in shallow diving adult cormorants in which the heart rate declined throughout the dive. The heart rate was also monitored in a separate group of chicks in which the first exposure to water was during whole body forced submergence. Again, the observed response was similar to the adult response, although the cardiac response of chicks to forced submergence was more extreme than to voluntary submergence. Our results do not support the hypothesis that learning (by conditioning or habituation) is involved in the cardiac adjustments to voluntary submergence. It is suggested that the initial cardiac adjustments are reflex in nature and this reflex is fully developed by the first submergence event. Although the nature of this reflex pathway is obscure, cessation of breathing before submersion and the close linkage between breathing and heart rate might provide a plausible mechanism.