A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics is presented. This is the stochastic SIS logistic model with the novel aspect that it incorporates varying carrying capacity. We present results of Kurtz and Barbour, that provide deterministic and diffusion approximations for a wide class of stochastic models, in a form that most easily allows their direct application to population models. These results are used to show that a suitably scaled version of the metapopulation model converges, uniformly in probability over finite time intervals, to a deterministic model previously studied in the ecological literature. Additionally, they allow us to establish a bivariate normal approximation to the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. This allows us to consider the effects of habitat dynamics on metapopulation modelling through a comparison with the stochastic SIS logistic model and provides an effective means for modelling metapopulations inhabiting dynamic landscapes.     

A game-theoretic model for punctuated equilibrium: species invasion and stasis through coevolution

A general theory of coevolution is developed that combines the ecological effects of species' densities with the evolutionary effects of changing phenotypes. Our approach also treats the evolutionary changes between coevolving species with discreet traits after the appearance of a new species. We apply this approach to habitat selection models where new species first emerge through competitive selection in an isolated habitat. This successful invasion is quickly followed by evolutionary changes in behavior when this species discovers the other habitat, leading to punctuated equilibrium as the final outcome.     

Population trends associated with skin peptide defenses against chytridiomycosis in Australian frogs

Many species of amphibians in the wet tropics of Australia have experienced population declines linked with the emergence of a skin-invasive chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. An innate defense, antimicrobial peptides produced by granular glands in the skin, may protect some species from disease. Here we present evidence that supports this hypothesis. We tested ten synthesized peptides produced by Australian species, and natural peptide mixtures from five Queensland rainforest species. Natural mixtures and most peptides tested in isolation inhibited growth of B. dendrobatidis in vitro. The three most active peptides (caerin 1.9, maculatin 1.1, and caerin 1.1) were found in the secretions of non-declining species (Litoria chloris, L. caerulea, and L. genimaculata). Although the possession of a potent isolated antimicrobial peptide does not guarantee protection from infection, non-declining species (L. lesueuri and L. genimaculata) inhabiting the rainforest of Queensland possess mixtures of peptides that may be more protective than those of the species occurring in the same habitat that have recently experienced population declines associated with chytridiomycosis (L. nannotis, L. rheocola, and Nyctimystes dayi). This study demonstrates that in vitro effectiveness of skin peptides correlates with the degree of decline in the face of an emerging pathogen. Further research is needed to assess whether this non-specific immune defense may be useful in predicting disease susceptibility in other species.     

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population.     

Routes of intraspecies transmission of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus): a field study

Rabbits have been increasingly linked to the persistence of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in domestic ruminants in the United Kingdom. The aims of this study were to determine the routes of intraspecies transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) in rabbits and to estimate the probability of transmission via each route, in order to gain understanding of the dynamics of MAP in this host. Rabbits were sampled from two sites where MAP had previously been isolated from the livestock and rabbit populations. No pathology was noted in any animals, but the overall prevalence of MAP in rabbits was high at both sites studied, 39.7% and 23.0%, respectively. MAP was isolated from the testes, uterus, placenta, fetuses, and milk. This is the first time that the bacterium has been isolated from any of these tissues in a nonruminant wildlife species. These results suggest that transmission may occur vertically, pseudovertically, and horizontally. Vertical, i.e., transplacental, and/or pseudo-vertical, i.e., through the ingestion of contaminated milk and/or feces, transmission occurred in 14% of offspring entering the population at 1 month of age. As infection via these routes is only possible from infected adult females, this equates to a probability of infection via this route of 0.326. Probability of infection via horizontal transmission (including interspecies transmission) occurred at up to 0.037 per month. The presence of these routes of transmission within natural rabbit populations will contribute to the maintenance of MAP infections within such populations and, therefore, the environment.     

Enhanced survival of GroESL-overproducing Lactobacillus paracasei NFBC 338 under stressful conditions induced by drying

GroESL-overproducing Lactobacillus paracasei NFBC 338 was dried, and its viability was compared with that of controls. Spray- and freeze-dried cultures overproducing GroESL exhibited approximately 10-fold and 2-fold better survival, respectively, demonstrating the importance of GroESL in stress tolerance, which can be exploited to enhance the technological performance of sensitive probiotic cultures.