Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to that of a variety of simpler baseline predictors.     

Hepatitis C virus internal ribosome entry site-dependent translation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae is independent of polypyrimidine tract-binding protein, poly(rC)-binding protein 2, and La protein

Translation initiation of some viral and cellular mRNAs occurs by ribosome binding to an internal ribosome entry site (IRES). Internal initiation mediated by the hepatitis C virus (HCV) IRES in Saccharomyces cerevisiae was shown by translation of the second open reading frame in a bicistronic mRNA. Introduction of a single base change in the HCV IRES, known to abrogate internal initiation in mammalian cells, abolished translation of the second open reading frame. Internal initiation mediated by the HCV IRES was independent of the nonsense-mediated decay pathway and the cap binding protein eIF4E, indicating that translation is not a result of mRNA degradation or 5'-end-dependent initiation. Human La protein binds the HCV IRES and is required for efficient internal initiation. Disruption of the S. cerevisiae genes that encode La protein orthologs and synthesis of wild-type human La protein in yeast had no effect on HCV IRES-dependent translation. Polypyrimidine tract-binding protein (Ptb) and poly-(rC)-binding protein 2 (Pcbp2), which may be required for HCV IRES-dependent initiation in mammalian cells, are not encoded within the S. cerevisiae genome. HCV IRES-dependent translation in S. cerevisiae was independent of human Pcbp2 protein and stimulated by the presence of human Ptb protein. These findings demonstrate that the genome of S. cerevisiae encodes all proteins necessary for internal initiation of translation mediated by the HCV IRES.     

T-box genes coordinate regional rates of proliferation and regional specification during cardiogenesis

Mutations in T-box genes are the cause of several congenital diseases and are implicated in cancer. Tbx20-null mice exhibit severely hypoplastic hearts and express Tbx2, which is normally restricted to outflow tract and atrioventricular canal, throughout the heart. Tbx20 mutant hearts closely resemble those seen in mice overexpressing Tbx2 in myocardium, suggesting that upregulation of Tbx2 can largely account for the cardiac phenotype in Tbx20-null mice. We provide evidence that Tbx2 is a direct target for repression by Tbx20 in developing heart. We have also found that Tbx2 directly binds to the Nmyc1 promoter in developing heart, and can repress expression of the Nmyc1 promoter in transient transfection studies. Repression of Nmyc1 (N-myc) by aberrantly regulated Tbx2 can account in part for the observed cardiac hypoplasia in Tbx20 mutants. Nmyc1 is required for growth and development of multiple organs, including the heart, and overexpression of Nmyc1 is associated with childhood tumors. Despite its clinical relevance, the factors that regulate Nmyc1 expression during development are unknown. Our data present a paradigm by which T-box proteins regulate regional differences in Nmyc1 expression and proliferation to effect organ morphogenesis. We present a model whereby Tbx2 directly represses Nmyc1 in outflow tract and atrioventricular canal of the developing heart, resulting in relatively low proliferation. In chamber myocardium, Tbx20 represses Tbx2, preventing repression of Nmyc1 and resulting in relatively high proliferation. In addition to its role in regulating regional proliferation, we have found that Tbx20 regulates expression of a number of genes that specify regional identity within the heart, thereby coordinating these two important aspects of organ development.     

Drosophila Ric-8 regulates Galphai cortical localization to promote Galphai-dependent planar orientation of the mitotic spindle during asymmetric cell division

Localization and activation of heterotrimeric G proteins have a crucial role during asymmetric cell division. The asymmetric division of the Drosophila sensory precursor cell (pl) is polarized along the antero-posterior axis by Frizzled signalling and, during this division, activation of Galphai depends on Partner of Inscuteable (Pins). We establish here that Ric-8, which belongs to a family of guanine nucleotide-exchange factors for Galphai, regulates cortical localization of the subunits Galphai and Gbeta13F. Ric-8, Galphai and Pins are not necessary for the control of the anteroposterior orientation of the mitotic spindle during pl cell division downstream of Frizzled signalling, but they are required for maintainance of the spindle within the plane of the epithelium. On the contrary, Frizzled signalling orients the spindle along the antero-posterior axis but also tilts it along the apico-basal axis. Thus, Frizzled and heterotrimeric G-protein signalling act in opposition to ensure that the spindle aligns both in the plane of the epithelium and along the tissue polarity axis.     

Magnesium regulates ADP dissociation from myosin V

Processivity in myosin V is mediated through the mechanical strain that results when both heads bind strongly to an actin filament, and this strain regulates the timing of ADP release. However, what is not known is which steps that lead to ADP release are affected by this mechanical strain. Answering this question will require determining which of the several potential pathways myosin V takes in the process of ADP release and how actin influences the kinetics of these pathways. We have addressed this issue by examining how magnesium regulates the kinetics of ADP release from myosin V and actomyosin V. Our data support a model in which actin accelerates the release of ADP from myosin V by reducing the magnesium affinity of a myosin V-MgADP intermediate. This is likely a consequence of the structural changes that actin induces in myosin to release phosphate. This effect on magnesium affinity provides a plausible explanation for how mechanical strain can alter this actin-induced acceleration. For actomyosin V, magnesium release follows phosphate release and precedes ADP release. Increasing magnesium concentration to within the physiological range would thus slow both the ATPase activity and the velocity of movement of this motor.     

Docking and rolling, a model of how the mitotic motor Eg5 works

Whereas kinesin I is designed to transport cargoes long distances in isolation, a closely related kinesin motor, Eg5, is designed to generate a sustained opposing force necessary for proper mitotic spindle formation. Do the very different roles for these evolutionarily related motors translate into differences in how they generate movement? We have addressed this question by examining when in the ATPase cycle the Eg5 motor domain and neck linker move through the use of a series of novel spectroscopic probes utilizing fluorescence resonance energy transfer, and we have compared our results to kinesin I. Our results are consistent with a model in which movement in Eg5 occurs in two sequential steps, an ATP-dependent docking of the neck linker, followed by a rotation or "rolling" of the entire motor domain on the microtubule surface that occurs with ATP hydrolysis. These two forms of movement are consistent with the functions of a motor designed to generate sustained opposing force, and hence, our findings support the argument that the mechanochemical features of a molecular motor are shaped more by the demands placed on it than by its particular family of origin.     

Isolation and properties of promitochondria from anaerobic stationary-phase yeast cells

Under anaerobiosis, the mitochondrion of Saccharomyces cerevisiae is restricted to unstructured promitochondria. These promitochondria provide unknown metabolic functions that are required for growth. Since high glucose concentrations are mainly fermented by S. cerevisiae during stationary phase (due to nitrogen starvation), an optimized promitochondria isolation procedure was investigated. Firstly, the unusual promitochondria ultrastructure was checked in intact cells by electron microscopy using a cryo-fixation and freeze-substitution method. The rapid response of anaerobic cells toward oxygen justified the adoption of several critical steps, especially during spheroplasting. Control of spheroplasting was accompanied by a systematic analysis of spheroplast integrity, which greatly influence the final quality of promitochondria. Despite the presence of remnant respiratory chain components under anaerobiosis, characterization of isolated promitochondria by high-resolution respirometry did not reveal any antimycin A- and myxothiazol-sensitive NADH and NADPH oxidase activities. Moreover, the existence of a cyanide-sensitive and non-phosphorylating NADH-dependent oxygen consumption in promitochondria was demonstrated. Nevertheless, promitochondria only slightly contribute to the overall oxygen consumption capacity observed in highly glucose-repressed anaerobic cells.     

Physical stresses at the air-wall interface of the human nasal cavity during breathing.

The nose is the front line defender of the respiratory system and is rich with mechanoreceptors, thermoreceptors, and nerve endings. A time-dependent computational model of transport through nasal models of a healthy human has been used to analyze the fields of physical stresses that may develop at the air-wall interface of the nasal mucosa. Simulations during quiet breathing revealed wall shear stresses as high as 0.3 Pa in the noselike model and 1.5 Pa in the anatomical model. These values are of the same order of those known to exist in uniform large arteries. The distribution of temperature near the nasal wall at peak inspiration is similar to that of wall shear stresses. The lowest temperatures occur in the vicinity of high stresses due to the narrow passageway in these locations. Time and spatial gradients of these stresses may have functional effects on nasal sensation of airflow and may play a role in the well-being of nasal breathing.