How the Polls Can Be Both Spot On and Dead Wrong: Using Choice Blindness to Shift Political Attitudes and Voter Intentions

Political candidates often believe they must focus their campaign efforts on a small number of swing voters open for ideological change. Based on the wisdom of opinion polls, this might seem like a good idea. But do most voters really hold their political attitudes so firmly that they are unreceptive to persuasion? We tested this premise during the most recent general election in Sweden, in which a left- and a right-wing coalition were locked in a close race. We asked our participants to state their voter intention, and presented them with a political survey of wedge issues between the two coalitions. Using a sleight-of-hand we then altered their replies to place them in the opposite political camp, and invited them to reason about their attitudes on the manipulated issues. Finally, we summarized their survey score, and asked for their voter intention again. The results showed that no more than 22% of the manipulated replies were detected, and that a full 92% of the participants accepted and endorsed our altered political survey score. Furthermore, the final voter intention question indicated that as many as 48% (±9.2%) were willing to consider a left-right coalition shift. This can be contrasted with the established polls tracking the Swedish election, which registered maximally 10% voters open for a swing. Our results indicate that political attitudes and partisan divisions can be far more flexible than what is assumed by the polls, and that people can reason about the factual issues of the campaign with considerable openness to change.     

Recombining germline-derived CDR sequences for creating diverse single-framework antibody libraries

We constructed a single-chain Fv antibody library that permits human complementarity-determining region (CDR) gene fragments of any germline to be incorporated combinatorially into the appropriate positions of the variable-region frameworks VH-DP47 and VL-DPL3. A library of 2 x 109 independent transformants was screened against haptens, peptides, carbohydrates, and proteins, and the selected antibody fragments exhibited dissociation constants in the subnanomolar range. The antibody genes in this library were built on a single master framework into which diverse CDRs were allowed to recombine. These CDRs were sampled from in vivo-processed gene sequences, thus potentially optimizing the levels of correctly folded and functional molecules, and resulting in a molecule exhibiting a lower computed immunogenicity compared to naive immunoglobulins. Using the modularized assembly process to incorporate foreign sequences into an immunoglobulin scaffold, it is possible to vary as many as six CDRs at the same time, creating genetic and functional variation in antibody molecules.     

3D Hydrophobic Moment Vectors as a Tool to Characterize the Surface Polarity of Amphiphilic Peptides

The interaction of membranes with peptides and proteins is largely determined by their amphiphilic character. Hydrophobic moments of helical segments are commonly derived from their two-dimensional helical wheel projections, and the same is true for β-sheets. However, to the best of our knowledge, there exists no method to describe structures in three dimensions or molecules with irregular shape. Here, we define the hydrophobic moment of a molecule as a vector in three dimensions by evaluating the surface distribution of all hydrophilic and lipophilic regions over any given shape. The electrostatic potential on the molecular surface is calculated based on the atomic point charges. The resulting hydrophobic moment vector is specific for the instantaneous conformation, and it takes into account all structural characteristics of the molecule, e.g., partial unfolding, bending, and side-chain torsion angles. Extended all-atom molecular dynamics simulations are then used to calculate the equilibrium hydrophobic moments for two antimicrobial peptides, gramicidin S and PGLa, under different conditions. We show that their effective hydrophobic moment vectors reflect the distribution of polar and nonpolar patches on the molecular surface and the calculated electrostatic surface potential. A comparison of simulations in solution and in lipid membranes shows how the peptides undergo internal conformational rearrangement upon binding to the bilayer surface. A good correlation with solid-state NMR data indicates that the hydrophobic moment vector can be used to predict the membrane binding geometry of peptides. This method is available as a web application on http://www.ibg.kit.edu/HM/.     

Vertical fatty acid profiles in blubber of a freshwater ringed seal — Comparison to a marine relative

We investigated the vertical stratification pattern of fatty acids in the blubber of the freshwater Saimaa ringed seal (Phoca hispida saimensis; n = 35). Blubber was dissected vertically into 3 mm thick sequential subsamples, and the fatty acid composition was analyzed separately for each subsample. The combined vertical fatty acid profiles (expressed as numerical gradients) showed that the blubber of > 1 year old individuals is stratified into three distinguishable layers: superficial (~ 1.5 cm), middle and deep (~ 1 cm). Thickness of the middle layer varied according to the total blubber thickness. We suggest that the observed layering is related to the differences in the tissue temperatures and metabolic activity in the blubber column. The dissimilarity in the fatty acid composition (measured as Euclidean distance) between the different blubber layers and the 5 most important fish prey species available in Lake Saimaa was largest in the superficial blubber. In fact, the fatty acid composition of superficial blubber resembled more that of marine ringed seal (Phoca hispida hispida) blubber than any of the analyzed fish species. The composition closest to that of the prey was found in the deep blubber of the Saimaa ringed seal. The large vertical differences in the fatty acid composition of blubber lipids, which likely affect the vertical distribution of other endogenous or exogenous lipophilic substances as well, will set conditions for the sampling of blubber for biomonitoring and dietary studies. Thus the knowledge on the potential layers with different composition and the depths they span in different individuals (e.g. young versus old; with thin versus thick blubber) is crucial for improving the validity and reliability of monitoring methods utilizing the blubber tissue.     

All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality among Users of Basal Insulins NPH,Detemir, and Glargine

Background

Insulin therapy in type 2 diabetes may increase mortality and cancer incidence, but the impact of different types of basal insulins on these endpoints is unclear. Compared to the traditional NPH insulin, the newer, longer-acting insulin analogues detemir and glargine have shown benefits in randomized controlled trials. Whether these advantages translate into lower mortality among users in real life is unknown.

Objective

To estimate the differences in all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates between new users of basal insulins in a population-based study in Finland.

Methods

23 751 individuals aged ≥40 with type 2 diabetes, who initiated basal insulin therapy in 2006–2009 were identified from national registers, with comprehensive data for mortality, causes of death, and background variables. Propensity score matching was performed on characteristics. Follow-up time was up to 4 years (median 1.7 years).

Results

2078 deaths incurred. With NPH as reference, the adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 0.39 (95% CI, 0.30–0.50) for detemir, and 0.55 (95% CI, 0.44–0.69) for glargine. As compared to glargine, the HR was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.54–0.93) among detemir users. Compared to NPH, the mortality risk for both cardiovascular causes as well as cancer were also significantly lower for glargine, and especially for detemir in adjusted analysis. Furthermore, the results were robust in various sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion

In real clinical practice, mortality was substantially higher among users of NPH insulin as compared to insulins detemir or glargine. Considering the large number of patients who require insulin therapy, this difference in risk may have major clinical and public health implications. Due to limitations of the observational study design, further investigation using an interventional study design is warranted.     

[18F]FDG Accumulation in Early Coronary Atherosclerotic Lesions in Pigs

Objective

Inflammation is an important contributor to atherosclerosis progression. A glucose analogue ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose ([¹⁸F]FDG) has been used to detect atherosclerotic inflammation. However, it is not known to what extent [¹⁸F]FDG is taken up in different stages of atherosclerosis. We aimed to study the uptake of [¹⁸F]FDG to various stages of coronary plaques in a pig model.

Methods

First, diabetes was caused by streptozotocin injections (50 mg/kg for 3 days) in farm pigs (n = 10). After 6 months on high-fat diet, pigs underwent dual-gated cardiac PET/CT to measure [¹⁸F]FDG uptake in coronary arteries. Coronary segments (n = 33) were harvested for ex vivo measurement of radioactivity and autoradiography (ARG).

Results

Intimal thickening was observed in 16 segments and atheroma type plaques in 10 segments. Compared with the normal vessel wall, ARG showed 1.7±0.7 times higher [¹⁸F]FDG accumulation in the intimal thickening and 4.1±2.3 times higher in the atheromas (P = 0.004 and P = 0.003, respectively). Ex vivo mean vessel-to-blood ratio was higher in segments with atheroma than those without atherosclerosis (2.6±1.2 vs. 1.3±0.7, P = 0.04). In vivo PET imaging showed the highest target-to-background ratio (TBR) of 2.7. However, maximum TBR was not significantly different in segments without atherosclerosis (1.1±0.5) and either intimal thickening (1.2±0.4, P = 1.0) or atheroma (1.6±0.6, P = 0.4).

Conclusions

We found increased uptake of [¹⁸F]FDG in coronary atherosclerotic lesions in a pig model. However, uptake in these early stage lesions was not detectable with in vivo PET imaging. Further studies are needed to clarify whether visible [¹⁸F]FDG uptake in coronary arteries represents more advanced, highly inflamed plaques.     

Toxic lead exposure in the urban rock dove

Thirteen adult urban rock doves (Columba livia), 12 captured alive and one found dead, were studied from the Baltimore zoo. The mean concentration of lead in the blood for the 12 live birds was 184.5 +/- 531.2 (range 10.5-1,870 micrograms/dl). Three of the 13 birds with high measured blood and tissue lead concentrations were found at necropsy with lead shot pellets in their gizzards. Correlations were not found between concentrations of lead in the blood and body weight or hematocrit. Conversely, high correlations were noted between concentrations of lead in the blood and measured liver and kidney concentrations (r = 0.946, P less than 0.01; r = 0.993, P less than 0.01, respectively). Numbers of intranuclear acid-fast inclusions per 10 consecutive fields (100x oil immersion lens) correlated well with measured kidney lead concentrations (r = 0.990, P less than 0.001).     

Monitoring Low Molecular Weight Heparins at Therapeutic Levels: Dose-Responses of,and Correlations and Differences between aPTT,Anti-Factor Xa and Thrombin Generation Assays

Background

Low molecular weight heparins (LMWH’s) are used to prevent and treat thrombosis. Tests for monitoring LMWH’s include anti-factor Xa (anti-FXa), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) and thrombin generation. Anti-FXa is the current gold standard despite LMWH’s varying affinities for FXa and thrombin.

Aim

To examine the effects of two different LMWH’s on the results of 4 different aPTT-tests, anti-FXa activity and thrombin generation and to assess the tests’ concordance.

Method

Enoxaparin and tinzaparin were added ex-vivo in concentrations of 0.0, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 anti-FXa international units (IU)/mL, to blood from 10 volunteers. aPTT was measured using two whole blood methods (Free oscillation rheometry (FOR) and Hemochron Jr (HCJ)) and an optical plasma method using two different reagents (ActinFSL and PTT-Automat). Anti-FXa activity was quantified using a chromogenic assay. Thrombin generation (Endogenous Thrombin Potential, ETP) was measured on a Ceveron Alpha instrument using the TGA RB and more tissue-factor rich TGA RC reagents.

Results

Methods’ mean aPTT at 1.0 IU/mL LMWH varied between 54s (SD 11) and 69s (SD 14) for enoxaparin and between 101s (SD 21) and 140s (SD 28) for tinzaparin. ActinFSL gave significantly shorter aPTT results. aPTT and anti-FXa generally correlated well. ETP as measured with the TGA RC reagent but not the TGA RB reagent showed an inverse exponential relationship to the concentration of LMWH. The HCJ-aPTT results had the weakest correlation to anti-FXa and thrombin generation (R_s0.62–0.87), whereas the other aPTT methods had similar correlation coefficients (R_s0.80–0.92).

Conclusions

aPTT displays a linear dose-respone to LMWH. There is variation between aPTT assays. Tinzaparin increases aPTT and decreases thrombin generation more than enoxaparin at any given level of anti-FXa activity, casting doubt on anti-FXa’s present gold standard status. Thrombin generation with tissue factor-rich activator is a promising method for monitoring LMWH’s.     

Genetic variation in competition traits at different ages and time periods and correlations with traits at field tests of 4-year-old Swedish Warmblood horses

For many years, the breeding value estimation for Swedish riding horses has been based on results from Riding Horse Quality Tests (RHQTs) of 4-year-olds only. Traits tested are conformation, gaits and jumping ability. An integrated index including competition results is under development to both get as reliable proofs as possible and increases the credibility of the indexes among breeders, trainers and riders. The objectives of this study were to investigate the suitability of competition data for use in genetic evaluations of horses and to examine how well young horse performance agrees with performance later in life. Competition results in dressage and show jumping for almost 40 000 horses from the beginning of the 1960s until 2006 were available. For RHQT data of 14 000 horses judged between 1988 and 2007 were used. Genetic parameters were estimated for accumulated competition results defined for different age groups (4 to 6 years of age, 4 to 9 years of age and lifetime), and for different birth year groups. Genetic correlations were estimated between results at RHQT and competitions with a multi-trait animal model. Heritabilities were higher for show jumping than dressage and increased with increasing age of the horse and amount of information. For dressage, heritabilities increased from 0.11 for the youngest group to 0.16 for lifetime results. For show jumping corresponding values increased from 0.24 to 0.28. Genetic correlations between competition results for the different age groups were highly positive (0.84 to 1.00), as were those between jumping traits at RHQT and competition results in show jumping (0.87 to 0.89). For dressage-related traits as 4-year-old and dressage competition results the estimated genetic correlations were between 0.47 and 0.77. We suggest that lifetime results from competitions should be integrated into the genetic evaluation system. However, genetic parameters showed that traits had changed during the over 35-year period covered due to the development of the sport, which needs to be considered in future genetic evaluations.