Age-Related Differences in the Accuracy of Web Query-Based Predictions of Influenza-Like Illness

BackgroundWeb queries are now widely used for modeling, nowcasting and forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI). However, given that ILI attack rates vary significantly across ages, in terms of both magnitude and timing, little is known about whether the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related queries is comparable across different age-groups. The present study aimed to investigate features of the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related query volume from the perspective of age.MethodsSince Google Flu Trends is unavailable in Italy, Google Trends was used to identify entry terms that correlated highly with official ILI surveillance data. All-age and age-class-specific modeling was performed by means of linear models with generalized least-square estimation. Hold-out validation was used to quantify prediction accuracy. For purposes of comparison, predictions generated by exponential smoothing were computed.ResultsFive search terms showed high correlation coefficients of > .6. In comparison with exponential smoothing, the all-age query-based model correctly predicted the peak time and yielded a higher correlation coefficient with observed ILI morbidity (.978 vs. .929). However, query-based prediction of ILI morbidity was associated with a greater error. Age-class-specific query-based models varied significantly in terms of prediction accuracy. In the 0–4 and 25–44-year age-groups, these did well and outperformed exponential smoothing predictions; in the 15–24 and ≥ 65-year age-classes, however, the query-based models were inaccurate and highly overestimated peak height. In all but one age-class, peak timing predicted by the query-based models coincided with observed timing.ConclusionsThe accuracy of web query-based models in predicting ILI morbidity rates could differ among ages. Greater age-specific detail may be useful in flu query-based studies in order to account for age-specific features of the epidemiology of ILI.     

Habitat use of the ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) in Brazilian Amazon

Amazonia forest plays a major role in providing ecosystem services for human and sanctuaries for wildlife. However, ongoing deforestation and habitat fragmentation in the Brazilian Amazon has threatened both. The ocelot is an ecologically important mesopredator and a potential conservation ambassador species, yet there are no previous studies on its habitat preference and spatial patterns in this biome. From 2010 to 2017, twelve sites were surveyed, totaling 899 camera trap stations, the largest known dataset for this species. Using occupancy modeling incorporating spatial autocorrelation, we assessed habitat use for ocelot populations across the Brazilian Amazon. Our results revealed a positive sigmoidal correlation between remote‐sensing derived metrics of forest cover, disjunct core area density, elevation, distance to roads, distance to settlements and habitat use, and that habitat use by ocelots was negatively associated with slope and distance to river/lake. These findings shed light on the regional scale habitat use of ocelots and indicate important species–habitat relationships, thus providing valuable information for conservation management and land‐use planning.     

Detection of complex alleles by direct analysis of DNA heteroduplexes

DNA molecules derived from three alleles of the HLA-DRB3 locus and differing from each other at several nucleotide sites were denatured and cross-hybridized. Each allelic combination was found to generate a pair of heteroduplexes of different mobility. Their retardation as compared to homoduplexes was proportional to the number of mismatches. In each heteroduplexes pair the component possessing the highest number of Pyr-Pyr oppositions was the most retarded. The results are those predicted by a theoretical model implying a correlation between base-pair opening and bending of the DNA double helix. These observations introduce a new HLA typing method at the genomic level and indicate an experimental approach to the analysis of the superhelical DNA conformation as related to different types of base oppositions.     

Variation in Thermal Sensitivity and Thermal Tolerances in an Invasive Species across a Climatic Gradient: Lessons from the Land Snail Cornu aspersum

The ability of organisms to perform at different temperatures could be described by a continuous nonlinear reaction norm (i.e., thermal performance curve, TPC), in which the phenotypic trait value varies as a function of temperature. Almost any shift in the parameters of this performance curve could highlight the direct effect of temperature on organism fitness, providing a powerful framework for testing thermal adaptation hypotheses. Inter-and intraspecific differences in this performance curve are also reflected in thermal tolerances limits (e.g., critical and lethal limits), influencing the biogeographic patterns of species’ distribution. Within this context, here we investigated the intraspecific variation in thermal sensitivities and thermal tolerances in three populations of the invasive snail Cornu aspersum across a geographical gradient, characterized by different climatic conditions. Thus, we examined population differentiation in the TPCs, thermal-coma recovery times, expression of heat-shock proteins and standard metabolic rate (i.e., energetic costs of physiological differentiation). We tested two competing hypotheses regarding thermal adaptation (the “hotter is better” and the generalist-specialist trade-offs). Our results show that the differences in thermal sensitivity among populations of C. aspersum follow a latitudinal pattern, which is likely the result of a combination of thermodynamic constraints (“hotter is better”) and thermal adaptations to their local environments (generalist-specialist trade-offs). This finding is also consistent with some thermal tolerance indices such as the Heat-Shock Protein Response and the recovery time from chill-coma. However, mixed responses in the evaluated traits suggest that thermal adaptation in this species is not complete, as we were not able to detect any differences in neither energetic costs of physiological differentiation among populations, nor in the heat-coma recovery.     

Skeletal muscle apoptotic signaling predicts thigh muscle volume and gait speed in community-dwelling older persons: an exploratory study

Background

Preclinical studies strongly suggest that accelerated apoptosis in skeletal myocytes may be involved in the pathogenesis of sarcopenia. However, evidence in humans is sparse. In the present study, we investigated whether apoptotic signaling in the skeletal muscle was associated with indices of muscle mass and function in older persons.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Community-dwelling older adults were categorized into high-functioning (HF) or low-functioning (LF) groups according to their short physical performance battery (SPPB) summary score. Participants underwent an isokinetic knee extensor strength test and 3-dimensional magnetic resonance imaging of the thigh. Vastus lateralis muscle samples were obtained by percutaneous needle biopsy and assayed for the expression of a set of apoptotic signaling proteins. Age, sex, number of comorbid conditions and medications as well as knee extensor strength were not different between groups. HF participants displayed greater thigh muscle volume compared with LF persons. Multivariate partial least squares (PLS) regressions showed significant correlations between caspase-dependent apoptotic signaling proteins and the muscular percentage of thigh volume (R² = 0.78; Q² = 0.61) as well as gait speed (R² = 0.81; Q² = 0.56). Significant variables in the PLS model of percent muscle volume were active caspase-8, cleaved caspase-3, cytosolic cytochrome c and mitochondrial Bak. The regression model of gait speed was mainly described by cleaved caspase-3 and mitochondrial Bax and Bak. PLS predictive apoptotic variables did not differ between functional groups. No correlation was determined between apoptotic signaling proteins and muscle strength or quality (strength per unit volume).

Conclusions/Significance

Data from this exploratory study show for the first time that apoptotic signaling is correlated with indices of muscle mass and function in a cohort of community-dwelling older persons. Future larger-scale studies are needed to corroborate these preliminary findings and determine if down-regulation of apoptotic signaling in skeletal myocytes will provide improvements in the muscle mass and functional status of older persons.     

Theoretical investigation of the formation of a new series of antioxidant depsides from the radiolysis of flavonoid compounds

This paper deals with the formation of a series of antioxidant depsides obtained from flavonoid solutions irradiated with gamma rays. These reactions take place in radiolyzed alcohol solutions, a medium that is very rich in many different highly reactive species and that hosts specific reactions. We focus on the first step of those reactions, i.e., reactivity of the solute (flavonoid) with the alkoxy radicals CH(3)O(*) and CH(3)CH(2)O(*) formed in methanol and ethanol, respectively, and their carbon-centered isomers: the 1-hydroxy-methyl ((*)CH(2)OH) and the 1-hydroxy-ethyl (CH(3)(*)CHOH) radicals. Among the different flavonoid groups of molecules, only flavonols are transformed. To establish the structure-reactivity relationship that explains why the radiolytic transformation occurs only for those compounds, the process is rationalized theoretically, with Density Functional Theory calculations, taking into account the solvent effects by a Polarizable Continuum Model and a microhydrated environment (one or two water molecules surrounding the active center). The first redox reaction, occurring between the flavonol and the reactive species formed upon irradiation of the solvent, is studied in terms of (1) the O-H bond dissociation enthalpy of each OH group of the flavonoids and (2) electron abstraction from the molecule. We conclude that the reaction, initiated preferentially by the alkoxy radicals, first occurs at the 3-OH group of the flavonol. It is then followed by the formation of a peroxyl radical (after molecular oxygen or superoxide addition). The different cascades of reactions, which lead to the formation of depsides via C-ring opening, are discussed on the basis of the corresponding calculated energetic schemes.     

BALT development and augmentation of hyperoxic lung injury in mice deficient in NQO1 and NQO2

NAD(P)H/NRH:quinone oxidoreductases (NQO1 and NQO2) protect against oxidative stress and neoplasia. Cross-breeding of NQO1-/- with NQO2-/- mice generated double-knockout (DKO) mice. DKO mice were born normal yet showed myelogenous hyperplasia as observed in single-knockout mice. DKO mice also showed bronchial-associated lymphoid tissue (BALT) that increased in number and size with age. BALT was absent in wild-type and single-knockout mice. Further analysis demonstrated infiltration of neutrophils and macrophages in BALT and significant increases in the serum cytokines TNFalpha, IL-6, and IL-1beta and increased expression of iNOS and higher nitric oxide in lung macrophages. The development of BALT in DKO mice presumably led to the release of cytokines and higher lung macrophage activation, because histologically spleen, thymus, and blood cultures and urine analysis showed absence of infection. Additionally, the DKO mice upon exposure to hyperoxia demonstrated severe intra-alveolar edema and perivascular inflammation and massive infiltration with neutrophils, compared with wild-type mice. These results suggest that NQO1 and NQO2 combined protect mice against lung inflammation, BALT, and hyperoxic lung injury.