Open tundra persist,but arctic features decline—Vegetation changes in the warming Fennoscandian tundra

In the forest‐tundra ecotone of the North Fennoscandian inland, summer and winter temperatures have increased by two to three centigrades since 1965, which is expected to result in major vegetation changes. To document the expected expansion of woodlands and scrublands and its impact on the arctic vegetation, we repeated a vegetation transect study conducted in 1976 in the Darju, spanning from woodland to a summit, 200 m above the tree line. Contrary to our expectations, tree line movement was not detected, and there was no increase in willows or shrubby mountain birches, either. Nevertheless, the stability of tundra was apparent. Small‐sized, poorly competing arctic species had declined, lichen cover had decreased, and vascular plants, especially evergreen ericoid dwarf shrubs, had gained ground. The novel climate seems to favour competitive clonal species and species thriving in closed vegetation, creating a community hostile for seedling establishment, but equally hostile for many arctic species, too. Preventing trees and shrubs from invading the tundra is thus not sufficient for conserving arctic biota in the changing climate. The only dependable cure is to stop the global warming.     

The relation between growth cessation and frost hardening in Scots pines of different origins

The cessation of shoot elongation, diameter growth and needle elongation were compared with the initiation of frost hardening of the stems and needles in an 8-year-old provenance trial of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) established in central Finland. The saplings were of six different origins ranging from Estonia to northern Finland, forming a latitudinal gradient of ca. 10°N. The frost hardiness of the stems of current-year shoots was assessed by electrical impedance analysis and that of current-year needles by electrolyte leakage and visual scoring of damage. Artificial freezing tests were used in the assessments. The pattern of growth cessation (shoot and needle elongation, diameter growth) tended to follow the latitude of origin, i.e. growth ceased in the northernmost provenance first and in the southernmost one last. Both stems and needles of the northern provenances hardened earlier than the southern ones, but the differences in hardiness disappeared as hardening progressed. Growth cessation and initial hardening to -15°C were clearly correlated at the provenance level, indicating that growth must cease prior to hardening, and that earlier cessation of growth predicts earlier frost hardening of stems and needles. No differences in frost hardiness of stems were found at the provenance level at the end of the growing period in August. At that time, the frost hardiness of needles of the northernmost provenance was higher than that of other origins. Within the provenance, the stems were less hardy than the needles.     

Shoot dynamics of the giant grass Gynerium sagittatum in Peruvian Amazon floodplains,a clonal plant that does show self-thinning

The giant rhizomatous grass Gynerium sagittatum is an early successional species that forms dense monocultures in Peruvian Amazon floodplains. We studied the shoot population structures by recording shoot densities and shoot heights. Leaf areas and stem volumes were allometrically estimated. Stands of two varieties of G. sagittatum were examined that differ in height and in the degree of shoot branching. In stands of increasing age, marked decreases in shoot densities were accompanied with an increase in mean shoot size. Self-thinning was indicated by the negative correlation between log stem volume per unit ground area and log shoot density, significant at least for one of the two varieties. The difference in thinning slope between the varieties could be largely accounted for by their different shoot geometry, as was revealed by calculations based on the allometric model of Weller (1987b). The relationship between log leaf area per shoot and log shoot density was significantly negative with slopes close to –1. Shoot size inequalities decreased with increasing mean stem volume per shoot, probably as a result of density-dependent mortality of the smaller shoots. All of these results accord with expectations for shoot self-thining. Gynerium sagittatum is the first clear example of a clonal plant species that exhibits self-thining in natural monospecific stands. It is argued that self-thinning occurs in this giant tropical grass because its shoots are perennial and do not experience seasonal die-back (periodic density-independent mortality), in contrast to many of the clonal plant species that have been studies so far.     

Uncertainty and Sensitivity in the Carbon Footprint of Shopping Bags

Carbon footprints for several shopping bag alternatives (polyethylene, paper, cotton, biodegradable modified starch, and recycled polyethylene) were compared with life cycle assessment. Stochastic uncertainty analysis was used to study the sensitivity of the comparison to scenario and parameter uncertainty. On the basis of the results, we could give only a few robust conclusions without choosing a waste treatment scenario or limiting the parameter space. Given the scenario of current waste infrastructure in Finland, recycled polyethylene bags seem to be the most preferable (?7 to 24 g CO₂ eq./bag) and biodegradable bags the least preferable (38 to 60 g CO₂ eq./bag) option. In each analyzed waste treatment scenario, a few parameters dominated the uncertainty of results. Most of these parameters were downstream of the shopping bag manufacturing (consumer behavior, landfill conditions, method of waste combustion, etc.). The choice of waste treatment scenario had a greater effect on the ranking of bags than parameter uncertainty within scenarios. This result highlights the importance of including several scenarios in comparative life cycle assessments.     

Changes in bird populations as criteria of environmental changes

Järvinen, O. and Väisänen, R. A. 1979. Changes in bird populations as criteria of environmental changes. – Holarct. Ecol. 2: 75-80.
Birds are a powerful tool of environmental monitoring, on account of their ecological diversity. Because of this, bird populations seem best suited for monitoring biological, possibly non-linear effects of specified environmental changes, such as habitat modification, and for "general monitoring" aimed at detecting unexpected environmental changes as they occur. Because many population changes have multiple causes, monitoring specific environmental changes is most rewarding if birds are grouped by e.g. habitat, major strategy (e.g. resident vs. migrant species), or feeding guild. A blueprint for a Nordic monitoring system based on breeding land birds is presented. Local trends may be atypical, and representative coverage of the major habitats in large areas should thus be ensured. As annual population fluctuations usually give little information in environmental monitoring, long-term projects are necessary. The line transect method seems applicable to many monitoring purposes, as it is rapid, inexpensive, relatively accurate, and suitable for sampling the northern terrestrial biota of the Holarctic region, probably including the temperate deciduous forests.     

Predicting range expansion of the map butterfly in Northern Europe using bioclimatic models

The two main goals of this study are: (i) to examine the range shifts of a currently northwards expanding species, the map butterfly (Araschnia levana), in relation to annual variation in weather, and (ii) to test the capability of a bioclimatic envelope model, based on broad-scale European distribution data, to predict recent distributional changes (2000–2004) of the species in Finland. A significant relationship between annual maximum dispersal distance of the species and late summer temperature was detected. This suggests that the map butterfly has dispersed more actively in warmer rather than cooler summers, the most notable dispersal events being promoted by periods of exceptionally warm weather and southerly winds. The accuracy of the broad-scale bioclimatic model built for the species with European data using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) was good based on split-sample evaluation for a single period. However, the model’s performance was poor when applied to predict range shifts in Finland. Among the many potential explanations for the poor success of the transferred bioclimatic model, is the fact that bioclimatic envelope models do not generally account for species dispersal. This and other uncertainties support the view that bioclimatic models should be applied with caution when they are used to project future range shifts of species.