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91.
Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.  相似文献   
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Sexually transmitted diseases such as gonorrhea, syphilis, herpes, and AIDS are driven and maintained in populations by epidemiological and sociological factors that are not completely understood. One such factor is the way in which people mix sexually. In this paper, we outline a unified approach to modeling sexual mixing structures, where such structures are defined in terms of a set of axioms for a finite number of distinct groups of people. Theorems for homosexual, heterosexual, and arbitrary group mixing are presented, leading to a representation of all mixing structures defined by the axioms. The representation and its parameters are interpreted in terms of intergroup affinities for sexual mixing. The use of the approach in sexually transmitted disease modeling is discussed.  相似文献   
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The phylogenetic relationships among the wall lizards of the Podarcis hispanicus complex that inhabit the south-east (SE) of the Iberian Peninsula and other lineages of the complex remain unclear. In this study, four mitochondrial and two nuclear markers were used to study genetic relationships within this complex. The phylogenetic analyses based on mtDNA gene trees constructed with ML and BI, and a species tree using *BEAST support three divergent clades in this region: the Valencia, Galera and Albacete/Murcia lineages. These three lineages were also corroborated in species delimitation analyses based on mtDNA using bPTP, mPTP, GMYC, ABGD and BAPS. Bayesian inference species delimitation method (BPP) based on both nuclear data and a combined data set (mtDNA + nuclear) showed high posterior probabilities for these three SE lineages (≥0.94) and another Bayesian analysis (STACEY) based on combined data set recovered the same three groups in this region. Divergence time dating of the species tree provided an estimated divergence of the Galera lineage from the other SE group (Podarcis vaucheri, (Albacete/Murcia, Valencia)) at 12.48 Ma. During this period, the Betic–Rifian arc was isolated, which could have caused the isolation of the Galera form distributed to the south of the Betic Corridor. Although lizards from the Albacete/Murcia and Galera lineage are morphologically similar, they clearly represent distinct genetic lineages. The noteworthy separation of the Galera lineage enables us to conclude that this lineage must be considered as a new full species.  相似文献   
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Background  

It has long been known that rates of synonymous substitutions are unusually low in mitochondrial genes of flowering and other land plants. Although two dramatic exceptions to this pattern have recently been reported, it is unclear how often major increases in substitution rates occur during plant mitochondrial evolution and what the overall magnitude of substitution rate variation is across plants.  相似文献   
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We have previously shown that although DDAVP (1-deamino-8-D-arginine vasopressin), a synthetic analogue of the natural hormone arginine vasopressin, does not directly promote release of vWf from human umbilical vein endothelial cells (ECs), enhanced release does occur when ECs were exposed to either monocytes or to supernatants recovered from DDAVP-treated monocytes. In the present study, we have found that exposure of monocytes to DDAVP did not increase secretion of interleukins (IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-8, tumor necrosis factor (TNF-α), growth factors G-CSF (granulocyte-), GM-CSF (granulocyte, monocyte-colony stimulating factor), prostaglandins (PG) E2, PGF, or PGI2 or purine nucleotides such as ATP and ADP. However, increased levels of platelet-activating factor (PAF) were secreted by DDAVP-treated monocytes in a time- and dose-dependent manner that positively correlated with the enhancement in vWf release from ECs. Moreover, this effect could also be elicited when lipid extracts of these supernatants or purified PAF were added directly to ECs. This response could be inhibited with (±)-trans-2,5-Bis(3,4,5-trimethoxyphenyl)-1,3-dioxolane, a specific PAF receptor antagonist, when the ECs were exposed to supernatants from DDAVP-treated monocytes or to pure PAF. The present data indicate that enhanced secretion of PAF from monocytes is one mechanism whereby DDAVP can provoke release of vWf from ECs. © 1993 Wiley-Liss, Inc.  相似文献   
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