Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.     

Cytogenetic analysis of buccal cells from shoe-workers and pathology and anatomy laboratory workers exposed to n-hexane, toluene, methyl ethyl ketone and formaldehyde.

People employed in the shoe manufacture and repair industry are at an increased risk for cancer, the strongest evidence being for nasal cancer and leukaemia. A possible causal role for formaldehyde is likely for cancer of the buccal cavity and nasopharynx. Exfoliated buccal cells are good source of tissue for monitoring human exposure to inhaled and ingested occupational and environmental genotoxicants. To assess the cytogenetic damage related to occupational exposure to airborne chemicals during shoe-making and the processes in pathology and anatomy laboratories, the micronuclei (MN) count per 3000 cells was measured in buccal smears from shoe-workers (group I, n = 22) exposed to mainly n-hexane, toluene and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and from anatomy and pathology staff (group II, n = 28) exposed to formaldehyde (FA). Eighteen male university staff were used as controls. The mean time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations of n-hexane, toluene and MEK in 10 small shoe workshops were 58.07 p.p.m., 26.62 p.p.m. and 11.39 p.p.m., respectively. The measured air concentrations of FA in the breathing zone of the anatomy and pathology laboratory workers were between 2 and 4 p.p.m. Levels of 2,5-hexadione (2,5-HD) and hippuric acid (HA), metabolic markers of n-hexane and toluene exposure, respectively, were significantly higher in the urine of workers in group I than in control subjects (p < 0.001 and p < 0.01, respectively). The mean (+/- SD) MN (0/00) [corrected] frequencies in buccal mucosa cells from workers in group I, group II and controls were 0.62 +/- 0.45%, 0.71 +/- 0.56% and 0.33 +/- 0.30%, respectively (p < 0.05 and p < 0.05 compared with controls for group I and group II, respectively). The effects of smoking, age and duration of exposure on the frequency of micronucleated buccal cells from workers in all three groups studied were also evaluated. Overall, the results suggest that occupational exposure to organic solvents, mainly n-hexane, toluene, MEK and FA, may cause cytogenetic damage in buccal cells and that use of exfoliated buccal cells seems to be appropriate to measure exposure to organic solvents.     

Short-term effects of boron, germanium and high light intensity on membrane permeability in boron deficient leaves of sunflower

With the ultimate purpose of clarifying the mechanism for aluminium (Al) toxicity and for Al tolerance, we tried to isolate cDNAs whose expression is induced by Al treatment and phosphate (P_i) starvation. We performed P_i starvation and Al treatment (two-step treatment) on suspension-cultured cells of Nicotiana tabacum L. cv. Samsun and then constructed a cDNA library using poly(A)⁺-RNA derived from the treated cells. Four independent cDNA clones (pAL 111, 139, 141 and 142) were isolated from the library by differential screening. Northern blot hybridization analysis indicated that the expression of these clones was induced by P_i starvation. Furthermore, we found that pAL 111 and pAL 142 are also induced by Al treatment. The complete cDNA sequencing of these 4 clones was determined. The results indicated that pAL111 is identical to the parA gene of N. tabacum, which is described as an auxin-regulated gene and that pAL142 is highly homologous to the parB gene of N. tabacum whose product has glutathione S-transferase (GST, EC 2.5.1.18) activity. Furthermore, we found a cysteine-rich domain in the amino acid sequence of pAL139. No DNA and deduced amino acid sequences homologous to the pAL141 were found.     

Tools for integrating range change,extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tool used to describe and forecast the potential influence of climate change on biodiversity. However, ENMs do not directly account for important biological and landscape processes likely to affect range dynamics at a variety of spatial scales. Recent advances to link ENMs with population models have focused on the fundamental step of integrating dispersal and metapopulation dynamics into forecasts of species geographic ranges. Here we use a combination of novel analyses and a synthesis of findings from published plant and animal case studies to highlight three seldom recognised, yet important, advantages of linking ENMs with demographic modelling approaches: 1) they provide direct measures of extinction risk in addition to measures of vulnerability based on change in the potential range area or total habitat suitability. 2) They capture life‐history traits that permit population density to vary in different ways in response to key spatial drivers, conditioned by the processes of global change. 3) They can be used to explore and rank the cost effectiveness of regional conservation alternatives and demographically oriented management interventions. Given these advantages, we argue that coupled methods should be used preferentially where data permits and when conservation management decisions require intervention, prioritization, or direct estimates of extinction risk.     

Effect of withdrawal of phosphorus on nitrate assimilation and PEP carboxylase activity in tomato

Tomato plants (Lycopersicon esculentum) grown in a complete nutrient solution for 8 days were transferred to a P-free solution of pH 6.0. Within 2 days of transfer the rate of alkalinization of the nutrient solution declined and by 4 days the solution had become acid. Nitrate transferred from roots to leaves was depressed over this period, and the rate of nitrate reductase activity in the leaves (the main site of assimilation of nitrate in tomato) had declined by 60% within 5 days of transfer. The activity of PEP carboxylase in the leaves of the P-deficient plants increased after 3 days, eventually becoming 3 times greater than in the leaves of plants adequately supplied with P. The PEP carboxylase activity in the roots of the P-deficient plants increased within 2 days, becoming 4 times greater after 8 days' growth. These results are discussed in relation to mechanisms for enhancement of P acquisition and maintenance of cation and anion uptake during P-deficiency.     

Effect of zinc nutritional status on activities of superoxide radical and hydrogen peroxide scavenging enzymes in bean leaves

The effect of varied zinc (Zn) supply on the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), ascorbate (AsA) peroxidase, glutathione (GSSG) reductase, catalase and guaiacol peroxidase was studied in leaves of bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) plants grown for 15 days in nutrient solution. Zinc deficiency severely decreased plant growth and the leaf concentrations of soluble protein and chlorophyll. Resupply of Zn to deficient plants for up to 72h restored protein concentrations more rapidly than chlorophyll and plant growth. With the exception of guaiacol peroxidase, the activities of all enzymes were significantly decreased by Zn deficiency, in particular GSSG reductase and SOD. Within 72h of resupplying Zn to deficient plants, the enzyme activities reached the level of the Zn sufficient plants. The results indicate severe impairment in the ability of Zn-deficient leaves to enzymically scavenge O₂ ^- and H₂O₂. Consequences and reasons of this impairment are discussed in terms of photooxidation of chloroplast pigments and inhibition of the biosynthesis of the related scavenger enzyme proteins.     

Light-mediated release of phytosiderophores in wheat and barley under iron or zinc deficiency

The effect of varied light intensity (50 – 600 mol m-2 s-1) on the rate of phytosiderophore release was studied under zinc (Zn) deficiency using a bread (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Aroona) and a durum wheat cultivar (Triticum durum Desf. cv. Durati) differing in zinc (Zn) efficiency and under iron (Fe) deficiency using a barley cultivar (Hordeum vulgare L. Europe). Plants were grown under controlled environmental conditions in nutrient solution for 15 days (wheat plants) or 11 days (barley plants). Phytosiderophore release was determined by measuring capacity of root exudates to mobilize copper (Cu) from a Cu-loaded resin.With increasing light intensity visual Zn deficiency symptoms such as whitish-brown lesions on leaf blade developed rapidly and severely in wheat, particularly in the durum cultivar Durati. In wheat plants supplied well with Zn, increases in light intensity from 100 to 600 mol m-2 s-1 did not clearly affect the rate of phytosiderophore release. However, under Zn deficiency increases in light intensity markedly enhanced release of phytosiderophores in Zn-deficient Aroona, but not in Zn-inefficient Durati. When Fe-deficient barley cultivar Europe was grown first at 220 mol m-2 s-1 and then exposed to 600 mol m-2 s-1 for 24 and 48 h, the rate of release of phytosiderophores was enhanced about 4-fold and 7-fold, respectively. Transfer of Fe-deficient plants from 600 to 50 mol m-2 s-1 for 48 h reduced the rate of release of phytosiderophores by a factor of 7. The effect of light on phytosiderophore release was similar regardless of whether the rate of phytosiderophore release was expressed per plant or per unit dry weight of roots.The results demonstrate a particular role of light intensity in phytosiderophore release from roots under both Zn and Fe deficiency. It is suggested that in the studies concerning the role of phytosiderophore release in expression of Zn or Fe efficiency among and within cereals, a special attention should be given to the light conditions.     

Decrease in nitrate uptake and increase in proton release in zinc deficient cotton,sunflower and buckwheat plants

The effect of varied Zn supply on the pH of the nutrient solution and uptake of cations and anions was studied in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) and buckwheat (Fagopyrum esculentum Moench) plants grown under controlled environmental conditions in nutrient solutions with nitrate as source of nitrogen. With the appearance of visual Zn deficiency symtoms, the pH of the nutrient solutions decreased from 6 to about 5 whereas the pH increased to about 7 when the plants were adequately supplied with Zn. In Zn deficient plants the pH decrease was associated with a shift in the cation-anion uptake ratio in favour of cation uptake. Of the major ions, uptake of Ca²⁺ and K⁺ was either not affected or only slightly lowered whereas NO₃ ^- uptake was drastically decreased in Zn deficient plants. Although the Zn nutritional status of plants hardly affected the NO₃ ^- concentrations in the plants, the leakage of NO₃ ^- from roots of Zn deficient plants into a diluted CaCl₂ solution was nearly 10 times higher than that of plants adequately supplied with Zn. In contrast to Zn deficiency, Mn deficiency in cotton plants neither affected NO₃ ^- uptake nor the pH of the nutrient solution.The results indicate that, probably as a consequence of the role of Zn in plasma membrane integrity and nitrogen metabolism, when Zn is deficient in dicotyledonous species net uptake of NO₃ ^- is particularly depressed which in turn results in an increase in cation-anion uptake ratio and a corresponding decrease in external pH. The ecological relevance of this rhizosphere acidification is discussed.