The effects of demographic stochasticity and parameter uncertainty on predicting the establishment of introduced species

Invasive species are a serious threat to biodiversity worldwide and predicting whether an introduced species will first establish and then become invasive can be useful to preserve ecosystem services. Establishment is influenced by multiple factors, such as the interactions between the introduced individuals and the resident community, and demographic and environmental stochasticity. Field observations are often incomplete or biased. This, together with an imperfect knowledge of the ecological traits of the introduced species, makes the prediction of establishment challenging. Methods that consider the combined effects of these factors on our ability to predict the establishment of an introduced species are currently lacking. We develop an inference framework to assess the combined effects of demographic stochasticity and parameter uncertainty on our ability to predict the probability of establishment following the introduction of a small number of individuals. We find that even moderate levels of demographic stochasticity influence both the probability of establishment, and, crucially, our ability to correctly predict that probability. We also find that estimation of the demographic parameters of an introduced species is fundamental to obtain precise estimates of the interaction parameters. For typical values of demographic stochasticity, the drop in our ability to predict an establishment can be 30% when having priors on the demographic parameters compared to having their accurate values. The results from our study illustrate how demographic stochasticity may bias the prediction of the probability of establishment. Our method can be applied to estimate probability of establishment of introduced species in field scenarios, where time series data and prior information on the demographic traits of the introduced species are available.     

Mean Recency Period for Estimation of HIV-1 Incidence with the BED-Capture EIA and Bio-Rad Avidity in Persons Diagnosed in the United States with Subtype B

HIV incidence estimates are used to monitor HIV-1 infection in the United States. Use of laboratory biomarkers that distinguish recent from longstanding infection to quantify HIV incidence rely on having accurate knowledge of the average time that individuals spend in a transient state of recent infection between seroconversion and reaching a specified biomarker cutoff value. This paper describes five estimation procedures from two general statistical approaches, a survival time approach and an approach that fits binomial models of the probability of being classified as recently infected, as a function of time since seroconversion. We compare these procedures for estimating the mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for two biomarkers used by the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System for determination of HIV incidence, the Aware BED EIA HIV-1 incidence test (BED) and the avidity-based, modified Bio-Rad HIV-1/HIV-2 plus O ELISA (BRAI) assay. Collectively, 953 specimens from 220 HIV-1 subtype B seroconverters, taken from 5 cohorts, were tested with a biomarker assay. Estimates of MDRI using the non-parametric survival approach were 198.4 days (SD 13.0) for BED and 239.6 days (SD 13.9) for BRAI using cutoff values of 0.8 normalized optical density and 30%, respectively. The probability of remaining in the recent state as a function of time since seroconversion, based upon this revised statistical approach, can be applied in the calculation of annual incidence in the United States.     

Factor XI Deficiency Alters the Cytokine Response and Activation of Contact Proteases during Polymicrobial Sepsis in Mice

Sepsis, a systemic inflammatory response to infection, is often accompanied by abnormalities of blood coagulation. Prior work with a mouse model of sepsis induced by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) suggested that the protease factor XIa contributed to disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) and to the cytokine response during sepsis. We investigated the importance of factor XI to cytokine and coagulation responses during the first 24 hours after CLP. Compared to wild type littermates, factor XI-deficient (FXI^-/-) mice had a survival advantage after CLP, with smaller increases in plasma levels of TNF-α and IL-10 and delayed IL-1β and IL-6 responses. Plasma levels of serum amyloid P, an acute phase protein, were increased in wild type mice 24 hours post-CLP, but not in FXI^-/- mice, supporting the impression of a reduced inflammatory response in the absence of factor XI. Surprisingly, there was little evidence of DIC in mice of either genotype. Plasma levels of the contact factors factor XII and prekallikrein were reduced in WT mice after CLP, consistent with induction of contact activation. However, factor XII and PK levels were not reduced in FXI^-/- animals, indicating factor XI deficiency blunted contact activation. Intravenous infusion of polyphosphate into WT mice also induced changes in factor XII, but had much less effect in FXI deficient mice. In vitro analysis revealed that factor XIa activates factor XII, and that this reaction is enhanced by polyanions such polyphosphate and nucleic acids. These data suggest that factor XI deficiency confers a survival advantage in the CLP sepsis model by altering the cytokine response to infection and blunting activation of the contact (kallikrein-kinin) system. The findings support the hypothesis that factor XI functions as a bidirectional interface between contact activation and thrombin generation, allowing the two processes to influence each other.     

Expression of mRNA Encoding Mcu and Other Mitochondrial Calcium Regulatory Genes Depends on Cell Type,Neuronal Subtype,and Ca2+ Signaling

Uptake of Ca²⁺ into the mitochondrial matrix controls cellular metabolism and survival-death pathways. Several genes are implicated in controlling mitochondrial Ca²⁺ uptake (mitochondrial calcium regulatory genes, MCRGs), however, less is known about the factors which influence their expression level. Here we have compared MCRG mRNA expression, in neural cells of differing type (cortical neurons vs. astrocytes), differing neuronal subtype (CA3 vs. CA1 hippocampus) and in response to Ca²⁺ influx, using a combination of qPCR and RNA-seq analysis. Of note, we find that the Mcu-regulating Micu gene family profile differs substantially between neurons and astrocytes, while expression of Mcu itself is markedly different between CA3 and CA1 regions in the adult hippocampus. Moreover, dynamic control of MCRG mRNA expression in response to membrane depolarization-induced Ca²⁺ influx is also apparent, resulting in repression of Letm1, as well as Mcu. Thus, the mRNA expression profile of MCRGs is not fixed, which may cause differences in the coupling between cytoplasmic and mitochondrial Ca²⁺, as well as diversity of mitochondrial Ca²⁺ uptake mechanisms.     

The contrasting effects of short‐ and long‐term habitat drainage on the population dynamics of freshwater turtles in a human‐dominated landscape

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Identification,Quantification, and System Analysis of Protein N‐ε Lysine Methylation in Anucleate Blood Platelets

Protein posttranslational modifications critically regulate a range of physiological and disease processes. In addition to tyrosine, serine, and threonine phosphorylation, reversible N‐ε acylation and alkylation of protein lysine residues also modulate diverse aspects of cellular function. Studies of lysine acyl and alkyl modifications have focused on nuclear proteins in epigenetic regulation; however, lysine modifications are also prevalent on cytosolic proteins to serve increasingly apparent, although less understood roles in cell regulation. Here, the methyl‐lysine (meK) proteome of anucleate blood platelets is characterized. With high‐resolution, multiplex MS methods, 190 mono‐, di‐, and tri‐meK modifications are identified on 150 different platelet proteins—including 28 meK modifications quantified by tandem mass tag (TMT) labeling. In addition to identifying meK modifications on calmodulin (CaM), GRP78 (HSPA5, BiP), and EF1A1 that have been previously characterized in other cell types, more novel modifications are also uncovered on cofilin, drebin‐like protein (DBNL, Hip‐55), DOCK8, TRIM25, and numerous other cytoplasmic proteins. Together, the results and analyses support roles for lysine methylation in mediating cytoskeletal, translational, secretory, and other cellular processes. MS data for this study have been deposited into the ProteomeXchange Consortium via the PRIDE partner repository with the dataset identifier PXD012217.