On the empirical choice of the time window for restricted mean survival time

The t-year mean survival or restricted mean survival time (RMST) has been used as an appealing summary of the survival distribution within a time window [0, t]. RMST is the patient's life expectancy until time t and can be estimated nonparametrically by the area under the Kaplan-Meier curve up to t. In a comparative study, the difference or ratio of two RMSTs has been utilized to quantify the between-group-difference as a clinically interpretable alternative summary to the hazard ratio. The choice of the time window [0, t] may be prespecified at the design stage of the study based on clinical considerations. On the other hand, after the survival data have been collected, the choice of time point t could be data-dependent. The standard inferential procedures for the corresponding RMST, which is also data-dependent, ignore this subtle yet important issue. In this paper, we clarify how to make inference about a random “parameter.” Moreover, we demonstrate that under a rather mild condition on the censoring distribution, one can make inference about the RMST up to t, where t is less than or even equal to the largest follow-up time (either observed or censored) in the study. This finding reduces the subjectivity of the choice of t empirically. The proposal is illustrated with the survival data from a primary biliary cirrhosis study, and its finite sample properties are investigated via an extensive simulation study.     

Strong Seasonality of Marine Microbial Eukaryotes in a High-Arctic Fjord (Isfjorden,in West Spitsbergen,Norway)

The Adventfjorden time series station (IsA) in Isfjorden, West Spitsbergen, Norway, was sampled frequently from December 2011 to December 2012. The community composition of microbial eukaryotes (size, 0.45 to 10 μm) from a depth of 25 m was determined using 454 sequencing of the 18S V4 region amplified from both DNA and RNA. The compositional changes throughout the year were assessed in relation to in situ fjord environmental conditions. Size fractionation analyses of chlorophyll a showed that the photosynthetic biomass was dominated by small cells (<10 μm) most of the year but that larger cells dominated during the spring and summer. The winter and early-spring communities were more diverse than the spring and summer/autumn communities. Dinophyceae were predominant throughout the year. The Arctic Micromonas ecotype was abundant mostly in the early-bloom and fall periods, whereas heterotrophs, such as marine stramenopiles (MASTs), Picozoa, and the parasitoid marine alveolates (MALVs), displayed higher relative abundance in the winter than in other seasons. Our results emphasize the extreme seasonality of Arctic microbial eukaryotic communities driven by the light regime and nutrient availability but point to the necessity of a thorough knowledge of hydrography for full understanding of their succession and variability.