The macroecology of infectious diseases: a new perspective on global‐scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts

Identifying drivers of infectious disease patterns and impacts at the broadest scales of organisation is one of the most crucial challenges for modern science, yet answers to many fundamental questions remain elusive. These include what factors commonly facilitate transmission of pathogens to novel host species, what drives variation in immune investment among host species, and more generally what drives global patterns of parasite diversity and distribution? Here we consider how the perspectives and tools of macroecology, a field that investigates patterns and processes at broad spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales, are expanding scientific understanding of global infectious disease ecology. In particular, emerging approaches are providing new insights about scaling properties across all living taxa, and new strategies for mapping pathogen biodiversity and infection risk. Ultimately, macroecology is establishing a framework to more accurately predict global patterns of infectious disease distribution and emergence.     

A genetically distinct hybrid zone occurs for two globally invasive mosquito fish species with striking phenotypic resemblance

Hybrid zones allow for the investigation of incipient speciation and related evolutionary processes of selection, gene flow, and migration. Interspecific dynamics, like competition, can impact the size, shape, and directional movement of species in hybrid zones. Hybrid zones contribute to a paradox for the biological species concept because interbreeding between species occurs while parental forms remain distinct. A long‐standing zone of intergradation or introgression exists for eastern and western mosquito fish (Gambusia holbrooki and G. affinis) around Mobile Bay, AL. The region has been studied episodically, over decades, making it perfect for addressing temporal dynamics and for providing a deeper understanding of the genetics of these periodically reclassified fishes (as species or subspecies). We used six microsatellite markers to assess the current population structure and gene flow patterns across 19 populations of mosquito fish and then compared our results with historical data. Genetic evidence demonstrates that the current hybrid zone is located in a similar geographic region as the historical one, even after three decades. Hybrid fish, however, demonstrate relatively low heterozygosity and are genetically distinct from western and eastern mosquito fish populations. Fin ray counts, sometimes used to distinguish the two species from one another, demonstrate more eastern (G. holbrooki) phenotype fish within the molecular genetic hybrid zone today. Mosquito fish are globally invasive, often found on the leading edge of flooded waters that they colonize, so the impact of hurricanes in the wake of climate change was also evaluated. An increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the hybrid region has occurred, and this point warrants further attention since hurricanes are known to move these aggressive, invasive species into novel territory. This work contributes to our classical understanding of hybrid zone temporal dynamics, refines our understanding of mosquito fish genetics in their native range, evaluates important genotype–phenotype relationships, and identifies a potential new impact of climate change.     

Vegetation response to removal of non-native feral pigs from Hawaiian tropical montane wet forest

Globally, non-native ungulates threaten native biodiversity, alter biotic and abiotic factors regulating ecological processes, and incur significant economic costs via herbivory, rooting, and trampling. Removal of non-native ungulates is an increasingly common and crucial first step in conserving and restoring native forests. However, removal is often controversial and there is currently little information on plant community responses to this management action. Here, we examine the response of native and non-native understory vegetation in paired sites inside and outside of exclosures across a 6.5–18.5 year chronosequence of feral pig (Sus scrofa) removal from canopy-intact Hawaiian tropical montane wet forest. Stem density and cover of native plants, species richness of ground-rooted native woody plants, and abundance of native plants of conservation interest were all significantly higher where feral pigs had been removed. Similarly, the area of exposed soil was substantially lower and cover of litter and bryophytes was greater with feral pig removal. Spatial patterns of recruitment were also strongly affected. Whereas epiphytic establishment was similar between treatments, the density of ground-rooted woody plants was four times higher with feral pig removal. Abundance of invasive non-native plants also increased at sites where they had established prior to feral pig removal. We found no patterns in any of the measured variables with time, suggesting that commonly occurring species recover within 6.5 years of feral pig removal. Recovery of species of conservation interest, however, was highly site specific and limited to areas that possessed remnant populations at the time of removal, indicating that some species take much longer (>18.5 years) to recover. Feral pig removal is the first and most crucial step for conservation of native forests in this area, but subsequent management should also include control of non-native invasive plants and outplanting native species of conservation interest that fail to recruit naturally.     

Estimation of the HIV Basic Reproduction Number in Rural South West Uganda: 1991–2008

Background

The basic reproduction number, , is one of the many measures of the epidemic potential of an infection in a population. We estimate HIV over 18 years in a rural population in Uganda, examine method-specific differences in estimated , and estimate behavioural changes that would reduce below one.

Methods

Data on HIV natural history and infectiousness were collated from literature. Data on new sexual partner count were available from a rural clinical cohort in Uganda over 1991–2008. was estimated using six methods. Behavioural changes required to reduce below one were calculated.

Results

Reported number of new partners per year was 0 to 16 (women) and 0 to 80 (men). When proportionate sexual mixing was assumed, the different methods yielded comparable estimates. Assuming totally assortative mixing led to increased estimates in the high sexual activity class while all estimates in the low-activity class were below one. Using the “effective” partner change rate introduced by Anderson and colleagues resulted in estimates all above one except in the lowest sexual activity class. could be reduced below one if: (a) medium risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 70% and higher risk individuals reduce their partner acquisition rate by 93%, or (b) higher risk individuals reduce the partner acquisition rate by 95%.

Conclusions

The estimated depended strongly on the method used. Ignoring variation in sexual activity leads to an underestimation of . Relying on behaviour change alone to eradicate HIV may require unrealistically large reductions in risk behaviour, even though for a small proportion of the population. To control HIV, complementary prevention strategies such as male circumcision and HIV treatment services need rapid scale up.     

Metabolomic Derangements Are Associated with Mortality in Critically Ill Adult Patients

Objective

To identify metabolomic biomarkers predictive of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) mortality in adults.

Rationale

Comprehensive metabolomic profiling of plasma at ICU admission to identify biomarkers associated with mortality has recently become feasible.

Methods

We performed metabolomic profiling of plasma from 90 ICU subjects enrolled in the BWH Registry of Critical Illness (RoCI). We tested individual metabolites and a Bayesian Network of metabolites for association with 28-day mortality, using logistic regression in R, and the CGBayesNets Package in MATLAB. Both individual metabolites and the network were tested for replication in an independent cohort of 149 adults enrolled in the Community Acquired Pneumonia and Sepsis Outcome Diagnostics (CAPSOD) study.

Results

We tested variable metabolites for association with 28-day mortality. In RoCI, nearly one third of metabolites differed among ICU survivors versus those who died by day 28 (N = 57 metabolites, p<.05). Associations with 28-day mortality replicated for 31 of these metabolites (with p<.05) in the CAPSOD population. Replicating metabolites included lipids (N = 14), amino acids or amino acid breakdown products (N = 12), carbohydrates (N = 1), nucleotides (N = 3), and 1 peptide. Among 31 replicated metabolites, 25 were higher in subjects who progressed to die; all 6 metabolites that are lower in those who die are lipids. We used Bayesian modeling to form a metabolomic network of 7 metabolites associated with death (gamma-glutamylphenylalanine, gamma-glutamyltyrosine, 1-arachidonoylGPC(20:4), taurochenodeoxycholate, 3-(4-hydroxyphenyl) lactate, sucrose, kynurenine). This network achieved a 91% AUC predicting 28-day mortality in RoCI, and 74% of the AUC in CAPSOD (p<.001 in both populations).

Conclusion

Both individual metabolites and a metabolomic network were associated with 28-day mortality in two independent cohorts. Metabolomic profiling represents a valuable new approach for identifying novel biomarkers in critically ill patients.     

Nitrogen dioxide oxidizes mitochondrial cytochrome c

We previously reported that high micromolar concentrations of nitric oxide were able to oxidize mitochondrial cytochrome c at physiological pH, producing nitroxyl anion (Sharpe and Cooper, 1998 Biochem. J. 332, 9–19). However, the subsequent re-evaluation of the redox potential of the NO/NO^- couple suggests that this reaction is thermodynamically unfavored. We now show that the oxidation is oxygen-concentration dependent and non stoichiometric. We conclude that the effect is due to an oxidant species produced during the aerobic decay of nitric oxide to nitrite and nitrate. The species is most probably nitrogen dioxide, NO₂^? a well-known biologically active oxidant. A simple kinetic model of NO autoxidation is able to explain the extent of cytochrome c oxidation assuming a rate constant of 3 × 10⁶ M^-1 s^-1 for the reaction of NO₂^? with ferrocytochrome c. The importance of NO₂^? was confirmed by the addition of scavengers such as urate and ferrocyanide. These convert NO₂^? into products (urate radical and ferricyanide) that rapidly oxidize cytochrome c and hence greatly enhance the extent of oxidation observed. The present study does not support the previous hypothesis that NO and cytochrome c can generate appreciable amounts of nitroxyl ions (NO^- or HNO) or of peroxynitrite.     

Predictors of poor perinatal outcome following maternal perception of reduced fetal movements--a prospective cohort study

Background

Maternal perception of reduced fetal movement (RFM) is associated with increased risk of stillbirth and fetal growth restriction (FGR). RFM is thought to represent fetal compensation to conserve energy due to insufficient oxygen and nutrient transfer resulting from placental insufficiency.

Objective

To identify predictors of poor perinatal outcome after maternal perception of reduced fetal movements (RFM).

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Methods

305 women presenting with RFM after 28 weeks of gestation were recruited. Demographic factors and clinical history were recorded and ultrasound performed to assess fetal biometry, liquor volume and umbilical artery Doppler. A maternal serum sample was obtained for measurement of placentally-derived or modified proteins including: alpha fetoprotein (AFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), human placental lactogen (hPL), ischaemia-modified albumin (IMA), pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and progesterone. Factors related to poor perinatal outcome were determined by logistic regression.

Results

22.1% of pregnancies ended in a poor perinatal outcome after RFM. The most common complication was small-for-gestational age infants. Pregnancy outcome after maternal perception of RFM was related to amount of fetal activity while being monitored, abnormal fetal heart rate trace, diastolic blood pressure, estimated fetal weight, liquor volume, serum hCG and hPL. Following multiple logistic regression abnormal fetal heart rate trace (Odds ratio 7.08, 95% Confidence Interval 1.31–38.18), (OR) diastolic blood pressure (OR 1.04 (95% CI 1.01–1.09), estimated fetal weight centile (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.94–0.97) and log maternal serum hPL (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.02–0.99) were independently related to pregnancy outcome. hPL was related to placental mass.

Conclusion

Poor perinatal outcome after maternal perception of RFM is closely related to factors which are connected to placental dysfunction. Novel tests of placental function and associated fetal response may provide improved means to detect fetuses at greatest risk of poor perinatal outcome after RFM.     

Feeny revisited: condensed tannins as anti-herbivore defences in leaf-chewing herbivore communities of Quercus

Abstract. 1. Community level oak–tannin–insect patterns have been largely unexplored since Paul Feeny's ground‐breaking research. Two hypotheses were tested for Quercus velutina and Q. alba in the Missouri Ozarks: abundance and richness of leaf‐chewing herbivores are negatively correlated with foliar condensed tannin concentrations and variation in condensed tannin concentrations explains variation in herbivore community structure. 2. In 2001, foliar condensed tannins in the understorey and canopy of these two oak species were quantified simultaneously with censuses of herbivores in May, during leaf expansion, and in June and August, when leaves were fully expanded. Thirty‐eight of the 134 species encountered had densities sufficient to be analysed individually (n = 10). Of those, Acronicta increta (Noctuidae) and Attelabus sp. (Curculionidae), both oak specialists, were negatively correlated with condensed tannins in the canopy of Q. alba. One additional specialist, Chionodes pereyra (Gelechiidae), was marginally negatively correlated with condensed tannins in the understorey of Q. velutina. Understorey species richness of May Q. velutina herbivores was negatively correlated with condensed tannins, as were total canopy insect density and species richness of August herbivores on Q. alba. 3. Principal component analysis (PCA) of insect abundances indicated that understorey and canopy Q. velutina and Q. alba had different communities of leaf‐chewing insects. Furthermore, condensed tannin levels contributed significantly to variation in PCA scores for Q. velutina, explaining 25% of the total variation. 4. Overall, these results indicate that specialists were more likely than generalists both to correlate negatively with condensed tannins and to occur in lower tannin habitats; abundance and richness of both early and late season fauna correlated negatively with tannins; and species were more likely to correlate negatively with condensed tannins when feeding on Q. alba than on Q. velutina and when feeding in the canopy than in the understorey. Future studies of tannin–insect interactions should manipulate leaf quality in combination with manipulations of other factors that likely influence community structure.