Are niche‐based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche‐based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice‐versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3–0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter‐specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land‐use history, or to species‐specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche‐based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche‐based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.     

Proteome of the phytopathogen <Emphasis Type="Italic">Xanthomonas citri</Emphasis> subsp. <Emphasis Type="Italic">citri</Emphasis>: a global expression profile

Background  

Citrus canker is a disease caused by Xantomonas citri subsp.citri (Xac), and has emerged as one of the major threats to the worldwide citrus crop because it affects all commercial citrus varieties, decreases the production and quality of the fruits and can spread rapidly in citrus growing areas. In this work, the first proteome of Xac was analyzed using two methodologies, two-dimensional liquid chromatography (2D LC) and tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS).     

Visual acuity in larval zebrafish: behavior and histology

Background

Mating plugs that males place onto the female genital tract are generally assumed to prevent remating with other males. Mating plugs are usually explained as a consequence of male-male competition in multiply mating species. Here, we investigated whether mating plugs also have collateral effects on female fitness. These effects are negative when plugging reduces female mating rate below an optimum. However, plugging may also be positive when plugging prevents excessive forced mating and keeps mating rate closer to a females' optimum. Here, we studied these consequences in the gonochoristic nematode Caenorhabditis remanei. We employed a new CO₂-sedation technique to interrupt matings before or after the production of a plug. We then measured mating rate, attractiveness and offspring number.

Results

The presence of a mating plug did not affect mating rate or attractiveness to roving males. Instead, females with mating plugs produced more offspring than females without copulatory plugs.

Conclusions

Our experiment suggests that plugging might have evolved under male-male competition but represents a poor protection against competing males in our experiment. Even if plugging does not reduce mating rate, our results indicate that females may benefit from being plugged in a different sense than remating prevention.     

Microsatellite variation in Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila simulans: a reciprocal test of the ascertainment bias hypothesis

Interspecific comparisons of microsatellite loci have repeatedly shown that the loci are longer and more variable in the species from which they are derived (the focal species) than are homologous loci in other (nonfocal) species. There is debate as to whether this is due to directional evolution or to an ascertainment bias during the cloning and locus selection processes. This study tests these hypotheses by performing a reciprocal study. Eighteen perfect dinucleotide microsatellite loci identified from a Drosophila simulans library screen and 18 previously identified in an identical Drosophila melanogaster library screen were used to survey natural populations of each species. No difference between focal and nonfocal species was observed for mean PCR fragment length. However, heterozygosity and number of alleles were significantly higher in the focal species than in the nonfocal species. The most common allele in the Zimbabwe population of both species was sequenced for 31 of the 36 loci. The length of the longest stretch of perfect repeat units is, on average, longer in the focal species than in the non-focal species. There is a positive correlation between the length of the longest stretch of perfect repeats and heterozygosity. The difference in heterozygosity can thus be explained by a reduction in the length of the longest stretch of perfect repeats in the nonfocal species. Furthermore, flanking-sequence length difference was noted between the two species at 58% of the loci sequenced. These data do not support the predictions of the directional-evolution hypothesis; however, consistent with the ascertainment bias hypothesis, the lower variability in nonfocal species is an artifact of the microsatellite cloning and isolation process. Our results also suggest that the magnitude of ascertainment bias for repeat unit length is a function of the microsatellite size distribution in the genomes of different species.      

Inhibition of L- and P-selectin by a rationally synthesized novel core 2-like branched structure containing GalNAc-Lewisx and Neu5Acalpha2- 3Galbeta1-3GalNAc sequences

The selectins interact in important normal and pathological situations with certain sialylated, fucosylated glycoconjugate ligands containing sialyl Lewisx(Neu5Acalpha2-3Galbeta1-4(Fucalpha1-3)GlcN Ac). Much effort has gone into the synthesis of sialylated and sulfated Lewisxanalogs as competitive ligands for the selectins. Since the natural selectin ligands GlyCAM-1 and PSGL-1 carry sialyl Lewisxas part of a branched Core 2 O-linked structure, we recently synthesized Galbeta1-4(Fucalpha1-3)GlcNAcbeta1-6(SE-3Galbeta1++ +-3)GalNAc1alphaOMe and found it to be a moderately superior ligand for L and P-selectin (Koenig et al. , Glycobiology 7, 79-93, 1997). Other studies have shown that sulfate esters can replace sialic acid in some selectin ligands (Yeun et al. , Biochemistry, 31, 9126-9131, 1992; Imai et al. , Nature, 361, 555, 1993). Based upon these observations, we hypothesized that Neu5Acalpha2-3Galbeta1-3GalNAc might have the capability of interacting with L- and P-selectin. To examine this hypothesis, we synthesized Galbeta1-4(Fucalpha1-3)GlcNAcbeta1-6(Neu5Acalpha2++ +-3Galbeta1-3)- GalNAc alpha1-OB, which was found to be 2- to 3-fold better than sialyl Lexfor P and L selectin, respectively. We also report the synthesis of an unusual structure GalNAcbeta1-4(Fucalpha1- 3)GlcNAcbeta1-OMe (GalNAc- Lewisx-O-methyl glycoside), which also proved to be a better inhibitor of L- and P-selectin than sialyl Lewisx-OMe. Combining this with our knowledge of Core 2 branched structures, we have synthesized a molecule that is 5- to 6-fold better at inhibiting L- and P-selectin than sialyl Lewisx-OMe, By contrast to unbranched structures, substitution of a sulfate ester group for a sialic acid residue in such a molecule resulted in a considerable loss of inhibition ability. Thus, the combination of a sialic acid residue on the primary (beta1-3) arm, and a modified Lexunit on the branched (beta1-6) arm on an O-linked Core 2 structure generated a monovalent synthetic oliogosaccharide inhibitor superior to SLexfor both L- and P-selectin.      

Water availability predicts forest canopy height at the global scale

The tendency of trees to grow taller with increasing water availability is common knowledge. Yet a robust, universal relationship between the spatial distribution of water availability and forest canopy height (H) is lacking. Here, we created a global water availability map by calculating an annual budget as the difference between precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) at a 1‐km spatial resolution, and in turn correlated it with a global H map of the same resolution. Across forested areas over the globe, H_mean increased with P‐PET, roughly: H_mean (m) = 19.3 + 0.077*(P‐PET). Maximum forest canopy height also increased gradually from ~ 5 to ~ 50 m, saturating at ~ 45 m for P‐PET > 500 mm. Forests were far from their maximum height potential in cold, boreal regions and in disturbed areas. The strong association between forest height and P‐PET provides a useful tool when studying future forest dynamics under climate change, and in quantifying anthropogenic forest disturbance.     

A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland''s current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.