Molecular dating of human-to-bovid host jumps by Staphylococcus aureus reveals an association with the spread of domestication

Host species switches by bacterial pathogens leading to new endemic infections are important evolutionary events that are difficult to reconstruct over the long term. We investigated the host switching of Staphylococcus aureus over a long evolutionary timeframe by developing Bayesian phylogenetic methods to account for uncertainty about past host associations and using estimates of evolutionary rates from serially sampled whole-genome data. Results suggest multiple jumps back and forth between human and bovids with the first switch from humans to bovids taking place around 5500 BP, coinciding with the expansion of cattle domestication throughout the Old World. The first switch to poultry is estimated at around 275 BP, long after domestication but still preceding large-scale commercial farming. These results are consistent with a central role for anthropogenic change in the emergence of new endemic diseases.     

Phylogenetic analysis reveals a correlation between the expansion of very virulent infectious bursal disease virus and reassortment of its genome segment B

Infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) is a birnavirus causing immunosuppressive disease in chickens. Emergence of the very virulent form of IBDV (vvIBDV) in the late 1980s dramatically changed the epidemiology of the disease. In this study, we investigated the phylogenetic origins of its genome segments and estimated the time of emergence of their most recent common ancestors. Moreover, with recently developed coalescence techniques, we reconstructed the past population dynamics of vvIBDV and timed the onset of its expansion to the late 1980s. Our analysis suggests that genome segment A of vvIBDV emerged at least 20 years before its expansion, which argues against the hypothesis that mutation of genome segment A is the major contributing factor in the emergence and expansion of vvIBDV. Alternatively, the phylogeny of genome segment B suggests a possible reassortment event estimated to have taken place around the mid-1980s, which seems to coincide with its expansion within approximately 5 years. We therefore hypothesize that the reassortment of genome segment B initiated vvIBDV expansion in the late 1980s, possibly by enhancing the virulence of the virus synergistically with its existing genome segment A. This report reveals the possible mechanisms leading to the emergence and expansion of vvIBDV, which would certainly provide insights into the scope of surveillance and prevention efforts regarding the disease.     

Bayesian Estimation of Sequence Damage in Ancient DNA

Mol. Biol. Evol. 24:1416-1422.     

Conserved footprints of APOBEC3G on Hypermutated human immunodeficiency virus type 1 and human endogenous retrovirus HERV-K(HML2) sequences

The human polynucleotide cytidine deaminases APOBEC3G (hA3G) and APOBEC3F (hA3F) are antiviral restriction factors capable of inducing extensive plus-strand guanine-to-adenine (G-to-A) hypermutation in a variety of retroviruses and retroelements, including human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). They differ in target specificity, favoring plus-strand 5'GG and 5'GA dinucleotide motifs, respectively. To characterize their mutational preferences in detail, we analyzed single-copy, near-full-length HIV-1 proviruses which had been hypermutated in vitro by hA3G or hA3F. hA3-induced G-to-A mutation rates were significantly influenced by the wider sequence context of the target G. Moreover, hA3G, and to a lesser extent hA3F, displayed clear tetranucleotide preference hierarchies, irrespective of the genomic region examined and overall hypermutation rate. We similarly analyzed patient-derived hypermutated HIV-1 genomes using a new method for estimating reference sequences. The majority of these, regardless of subtype, carried signatures of hypermutation that strongly correlated with those induced in vitro by hA3G. Analysis of genome-wide hA3-induced mutational profiles confirmed that hypermutation levels were reduced downstream of the polypurine tracts. Additionally, while hA3G mutations were found throughout the genome, hA3F often intensely mutated shorter regions, the locations of which varied between proviruses. We extended our analysis to human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs) from the HERV-K(HML2) family, finding two elements that carried clear footprints of hA3G activity. This constitutes the most direct evidence to date for hA3G activity in the context of natural HERV infections, demonstrating the involvement of this restriction factor in defense against retroviral attacks over millions of years of human evolution.     

Testing the Extent of Sequence Similarity Among Viroids, Satellite RNAs, and Hepatitis Delta Virus

A Monte Carlo method was used to test the extent of sequence similarity among viroids, satellite RNAs, and hepatitis delta virus. This analysis revealed that there is insufficient sequence similarity among these pathogens to support the hypothesis that they have a common evolutionary origin. Furthermore, while definite patterns of sequence similarity were observed among some viroids, there was a clear lack of overall similarity, indicating that a monophyletic origin for even this group cannot be reliably supported from sequence data alone. Received: 30 April 1999 / Accepted: 24 August 1999     

An integrated framework for the inference of viral population history from reconstructed genealogies

We describe a unified set of methods for the inference of demographic history using genealogies reconstructed from gene sequence data. We introduce the skyline plot, a graphical, nonparametric estimate of demographic history. We discuss both maximum-likelihood parameter estimation and demographic hypothesis testing. Simulations are carried out to investigate the statistical properties of maximum-likelihood estimates of demographic parameters. The simulations reveal that (i) the performance of exponential growth model estimates is determined by a simple function of the true parameter values and (ii) under some conditions, estimates from reconstructed trees perform as well as estimates from perfect trees. We apply our methods to HIV-1 sequence data and find strong evidence that subtypes A and B have different demographic histories. We also provide the first (albeit tentative) genetic evidence for a recent decrease in the growth rate of subtype B.     

Phylogenetic surveillance of viral genetic diversity and the evolving molecular epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus type 1

With ongoing generation of viral genetic diversity and increasing levels of migration, the global human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic is becoming increasingly heterogeneous. In this study, we investigate the epidemiological characteristics of 5,675 HIV-1 pol gene sequences sampled from distinct infections in the United Kingdom. These sequences were phylogenetically analyzed in conjunction with 976 complete-genome and 3,201 pol gene reference sequences sampled globally and representing the broad range of HIV-1 genetic diversity, allowing us to estimate the probable geographic origins of the various strains present in the United Kingdom. A statistical analysis of phylogenetic clustering in this data set identified several independent transmission chains within the United Kingdom involving recently introduced strains and indicated that strains more commonly associated with infections acquired heterosexually in East Africa are spreading among men who have sex with men. Coalescent approaches were also used and indicated that the transmission chains that we identify originated in the late 1980s to early 1990s. Similar changes in the epidemiological structuring of HIV epidemics are likely to be taking in place in other industrialized nations with large immigrant populations. The framework implemented here takes advantage of the vast amount of routinely generated HIV-1 sequence data and can provide epidemiological insights not readily obtainable through standard surveillance methods.     

Bayesian estimation of sequence damage in ancient DNA

DNA extracted from archaeological and paleontological remains is usually damaged by biochemical processes postmortem. Some of these processes lead to changes in the structure of the DNA molecule, which can result in the incorporation of incorrect nucleotides during polymerase chain reaction. These base misincorporations, or miscoding lesions, can lead to the inclusion of spurious additional mutations in ancient DNA (aDNA) data sets. This has the potential to affect the outcome of phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, including estimates of mutation rates and genetic diversity. We present a novel model, termed the delta model, which estimates the amount of damage in DNA data and accounts for its effects in a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. The ability of the delta model to estimate damage is first investigated using a simulation study. The model is then applied to 13 aDNA data sets. The amount of damage in these data sets is shown to be significant but low (about 1 damaged base per 750 nt), suggesting that precautions for limiting the influence of damaged sites, such as cloning and enzymatic treatment, are worthwhile. The results also suggest that relatively high rates of mutation previously estimated from aDNA data are not entirely an artifact of sequence damage and are likely to be due to other factors such as the persistence of transient polymorphisms. The delta model appears to be particularly useful for placing upper credibility limits on the amount of sequence damage in an alignment, and this capacity might be beneficial for future aDNA studies or for the estimation of sequencing errors in modern DNA.     

Rates of Molecular Evolution in RNA Viruses: A Quantitative Phylogenetic Analysis

The study of rates of nucleotide substitution in RNA viruses is central to our understanding of their evolution. Herein we report a comprehensive analysis of substitution rates in 50 RNA viruses using a recently developed maximum likelihood phylogenetic method. This analysis revealed a significant relationship between genetic divergence and isolation time for an extensive array of RNA viruses, although more rate variation was usually present among lineages than would be expected under the constraints of a molecular clock. Despite the lack of a molecular clock, the range of statistically significant variation in overall substitution rates was surprisingly narrow for those viruses where a significant relationship between genetic divergence and time was found, as was the case when synonymous sites were considered alone, where the molecular clock was rejected less frequently. An analysis of the ecological and genetic factors that might explain this rate variation revealed some evidence of significantly lower substitution rates in vector-borne viruses, as well as a weak correlation between rate and genome length. Finally, a simulation study revealed that our maximum likelihood estimates of substitution rates are valid, even if the molecular clock is rejected, provided that sufficiently large data sets are analyzed. Received: 23 February 2001 / Accepted: 3 July 2001