A phylogenetic method for detecting positive epistasis in gene sequences and its application to RNA virus evolution

RNA virus genomes are compact, often containing multiple overlapping reading frames and functional secondary structure. Consequently, it is thought that evolutionary interactions between nucleotide sites are commonplace in the genomes of these infectious agents. However, the role of epistasis in natural populations of RNA viruses remains unclear. To investigate the pervasiveness of epistasis in RNA viruses, we used a parsimony-based computational method to identify pairs of co-occurring mutations along phylogenies of 177 RNA virus genes. This analysis revealed widespread evidence for positive epistatic interactions at both synonymous and nonsynonymous nucleotide sites and in both clonal and recombining viruses, with the majority of these interactions spanning very short sequence regions. These findings have important implications for understanding the key aspects of RNA virus evolution, including the dynamics of adaptation. Additionally, many comparative analyses that utilize the phylogenetic relationships among gene sequences assume that mutations represent independent, uncorrelated events. Our results show that this assumption may often be invalid.     

Relaxed phylogenetics and dating with confidence

In phylogenetics, the unrooted model of phylogeny and the strict molecular clock model are two extremes of a continuum. Despite their dominance in phylogenetic inference, it is evident that both are biologically unrealistic and that the real evolutionary process lies between these two extremes. Fortunately, intermediate models employing relaxed molecular clocks have been described. These models open the gate to a new field of “relaxed phylogenetics.” Here we introduce a new approach to performing relaxed phylogenetic analysis. We describe how it can be used to estimate phylogenies and divergence times in the face of uncertainty in evolutionary rates and calibration times. Our approach also provides a means for measuring the clocklikeness of datasets and comparing this measure between different genes and phylogenies. We find no significant rate autocorrelation among branches in three large datasets, suggesting that autocorrelated models are not necessarily suitable for these data. In addition, we place these datasets on the continuum of clocklikeness between a strict molecular clock and the alternative unrooted extreme. Finally, we present analyses of 102 bacterial, 106 yeast, 61 plant, 99 metazoan, and 500 primate alignments. From these we conclude that our method is phylogenetically more accurate and precise than the traditional unrooted model while adding the ability to infer a timescale to evolution.     

Breeding racehorses: what price good genes?

Horse racing is a multi-million pound industry, in which genetic information is increasingly used to optimize breeding programmes. To maximize the probability of producing a successful offspring, the owner of a mare should mate her with a high-quality stallion. However, stallions with big reputations command higher stud fees and paying these is only a sensible strategy if, (i) there is a genetic variation for success on the racecourse and (ii) stud fees are an honest signal of a stallion's genetic quality. Using data on thoroughbred racehorses, and lifetime earnings from prize money (LE) as a measure of success, we performed quantitative genetic analyses within an animal model framework to test these two conditions. Although LE is heritable (VA=0.299+/-0.108, Pr=0.002), there is no genetic variance for stud fee and the genetic correlation between traits is therefore zero. This result is supported by an absence of any relationship between stud fees for currently active stallions and the predicted LE for their (hypothetical) offspring. Thus, while there are good genes to be bought, a stallion's fees are not an honest signal of his genetic quality and are a poor predictor of a foal's prize winning potential.     

Evolutionary genomics of host adaptation in vesicular stomatitis virus

Populations experiencing similar selection pressures can sometimes diverge in the genetic architectures underlying evolved complex traits. We used RNA virus populations of large size and high mutation rate to study the impact of historical environment on genome evolution, thus increasing our ability to detect repeatable patterns in the evolution of genetic architecture. Experimental vesicular stomatitis virus populations were evolved on HeLa cells, on MDCK cells, or on alternating hosts. Turner and Elena (2000. Cost of host radiation in an RNA virus. Genetics. 156:1465-1470.) previously showed that virus populations evolved in single-host environments achieved high fitness on their selected hosts but failed to increase in fitness relative to their ancestor on the unselected host and that alternating-host-evolved populations had high fitness on both hosts. Here we determined the complete consensus sequence for each evolved population after 95 generations to gauge whether the parallel phenotypic changes were associated with parallel genomic changes. We also analyzed the patterns of allele substitutions to discern whether differences in fitness across hosts arose through true pleiotropy or the presence of not only a mutation that is beneficial in both hosts but also 1 or more mutations at other loci that are costly in the unselected environment (mutation accumulation [MA]). We found that ecological history may influence to what extent pleiotropy and MA contribute to fitness asymmetries across environments. We discuss the degree to which current genetic architecture is expected to constrain future evolution of complex traits, such as host use by RNA viruses.     

Viral evolution and the emergence of SARS coronavirus

The recent appearance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) highlights the continual threat to human health posed by emerging viruses. However, the central processes in the evolution of emerging viruses are unclear, particularly the selection pressures faced by viruses in new host species. We outline some of the key evolutionary genetic aspects of viral emergence. We emphasize that, although the high mutation rates of RNA viruses provide them with great adaptability and explain why they are the main cause of emerging diseases, their limited genome size means that they are also subject to major evolutionary constraints. Understanding the mechanistic basis of these constraints, particularly the roles played by epistasis and pleiotropy, is likely to be central in explaining why some RNA viruses are more able than others to cross species boundaries. Viral genetic factors have also been implicated in the emergence of SARS-CoV, with the suggestion that this virus is a recombinant between mammalian and avian coronaviruses. We show, however, that the phylogenetic patterns cited as evidence for recombination are more probably caused by a variation in substitution rate among lineages and that recombination is unlikely to explain the appearance of SARS in humans.     

Synonymous substitution rates predict HIV disease progression as a result of underlying replication dynamics

Upon HIV transmission, some patients develop AIDS in only a few months, while others remain disease free for 20 or more years. This variation in the rate of disease progression is poorly understood and has been attributed to host genetics, host immune responses, co-infection, viral genetics, and adaptation. Here, we develop a new “relaxed-clock” phylogenetic method to estimate absolute rates of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution through time. We identify an unexpected association between the synonymous substitution rate of HIV and disease progression parameters. Since immune activation is the major determinant of HIV disease progression, we propose that this process can also determine viral generation times, by creating favourable conditions for HIV replication. These conclusions may apply more generally to HIV evolution, since we also observed an overall low synonymous substitution rate for HIV-2, which is known to be less pathogenic than HIV-1 and capable of tempering the detrimental effects of immune activation. Humoral immune responses, on the other hand, are the major determinant of nonsynonymous rate changes through time in the envelope gene, and our relaxed-clock estimates support a decrease in selective pressure as a consequence of immune system collapse.     

Phylogenetic evidence for recombination in dengue virus.

A split decomposition analysis of dengue (DEN) virus gene sequences revealed extensive networked evolution, indicative of recombination, among DEN-1 strains but not within serotypes DEN-2, DEN-3, or DEN-4. Within DEN-1, two viruses sampled from South America in the last 10 years were identified as recombinants. To map the breakpoints and test their statistical support, we developed a novel maximum likelihood method. In both recombinants, the breakpoints were found to be in similar positions, within the fusion peptide of the envelope protein, demonstrating that a single recombination event occurred prior to the divergence of these two strains. This is the first report of recombination in natural populations of dengue virus.     

Simultaneously reconstructing viral cross-species transmission history and identifying the underlying constraints

The factors that determine the origin and fate of cross-species transmission events remain unclear for the majority of human pathogens, despite being central for the development of predictive models and assessing the efficacy of prevention strategies. Here, we describe a flexible Bayesian statistical framework to reconstruct virus transmission between different host species based on viral gene sequences, while simultaneously testing and estimating the contribution of several potential predictors of cross-species transmission. Specifically, we use a generalized linear model extension of phylogenetic diffusion to perform Bayesian model averaging over candidate predictors. By further extending this model with branch partitioning, we allow for distinct host transition processes on external and internal branches, thus discriminating between recent cross-species transmissions, many of which are likely to result in dead-end infections, and host shifts that reflect successful onwards transmission in the new host species. Our approach corroborates genetic distance between hosts as a key determinant of both host shifts and cross-species transmissions of rabies virus in North American bats. Furthermore, our results indicate that geographical range overlap is a modest predictor for cross-species transmission, but not for host shifts. Although our evolutionary framework focused on the multi-host reservoir dynamics of bat rabies virus, it is applicable to other pathogens and to other discrete state transition processes.     

JC virus evolution and its association with human populations

The ubiquitous human polyomavirus JC (JCV) is a small double-stranded DNA virus that establishes a persistent infection, and it is often transmitted from parents to children. There are at least 14 subtypes of the virus associated with different human populations. Because of its presumed codivergence with humans, JCV has been used as a genetic marker for human evolution and migration. Codivergence has also been used as a basis for estimating the rate of nucleotide substitution in JCV. We tested the hypothesis of host-virus codivergence by (i) performing a reconciliation analysis of phylogenetic trees of human and JCV populations and (ii) providing the first estimate of the evolutionary rate of JCV that is independent from the assumption of codivergence. Strikingly, our comparisons of JCV and human phylogenies provided no evidence for codivergence, suggesting that this virus should not be used as a marker for human population history. Further, while the estimated nucleotide substitution rate of JCV has large confidence intervals due to limited sampling, our analysis suggests that this virus may evolve nearly two orders of magnitude faster than predicted under the codivergence hypothesis.     

The effect of bedrest on adrenal function

Eight male subjects were subjected to continuous bedrest for 24–80 weeks for the purpose of studying metabolic responses. Three of the subjects did supine exercises daily during part of the study. Adrenal function was examined in relation to adrenal cortical and medullary excretions. The results reveal an increase in hydrocortisone throughout the test period, a decrease in norepinephrine and no change in epinephrine. These data suggest that exercise could decrease the severity of deconditioning caused by bedrest.