Validation of discrete time-to-event prediction models in the presence of competing risks

Clinical prediction models play a key role in risk stratification, therapy assignment and many other fields of medical decision making. Before they can enter clinical practice, their usefulness has to be demonstrated using systematic validation. Methods to assess their predictive performance have been proposed for continuous, binary, and time-to-event outcomes, but the literature on validation methods for discrete time-to-event models with competing risks is sparse. The present paper tries to fill this gap and proposes new methodology to quantify discrimination, calibration, and prediction error (PE) for discrete time-to-event outcomes in the presence of competing risks. In our case study, the goal was to predict the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) attributed to Pseudomonas aeruginosa in intensive care units (ICUs). Competing events are extubation, death, and VAP due to other bacteria. The aim of this application is to validate complex prediction models developed in previous work on more recently available validation data.     

Diversity and composition of macroinvertebrate communities in a rare inland salt marsh

Inland salt marshes are rare habitats in the Great Lakes region of North America, formed on salt deposits from the Silurian period. These patchy habitats are abiotically stressful for the freshwater invertebrates that live there, and provide an opportunity to study the relationship between stress and diversity. We used morphological and COI metabarcoding data to assess changes in diversity and composition across both space (a transect from the salt seep to an adjacent freshwater area) and time (three sampling seasons). Richness was significantly lower at the seep site with both datatypes, while metabarcoding data additionally showed reduced richness at the freshwater transect end, consistent with a pattern where intermediate levels of stress show higher diversity. We found complementary, rather than redundant, patterns of community composition using the two datatypes: not all taxa were equally sequenced with the metabarcoding protocol. We identified taxa that are abundant at the salt seep of the marsh, including biting midges (Culicoides) and ostracods (Heterocypris). We conclude that (as found in other studies) molecular and morphological work should be used in tandem to identify the biodiversity in this rare habitat. Additionally, salinity may be a driver of community membership in this system, though further ecological research is needed to rule out alternate hypotheses.     

Trophic network models explain instability of Early Triassic terrestrial communities

Studies of the end-Permian mass extinction have emphasized potential abiotic causes and their direct biotic effects. Less attention has been devoted to secondary extinctions resulting from ecological crises and the effect of community structure on such extinctions. Here we use a trophic network model that combines topological and dynamic approaches to simulate disruptions of primary productivity in palaeocommunities. We apply the model to Permian and Triassic communities of the Karoo Basin, South Africa, and show that while Permian communities bear no evidence of being especially susceptible to extinction, Early Triassic communities appear to have been inherently less stable. Much of the instability results from the faster post-extinction diversification of amphibian guilds relative to amniotes. The resulting communities differed fundamentally in structure from their Permian predecessors. Additionally, our results imply that changing community structures over time may explain long-term trends like declining rates of Phanerozoic background extinction.     

Mannose-binding lectin from<Emphasis Type="Italic">Curcuma zedoaria</Emphasis> Rosc

A mannose-binding lectin was isolated from rhizomes of the medicinal plantCurcuma zedoaria. We used extraction with 20 mM phosphate buffer, ammonium sulfate precipitation, ion exchange chromatography on Q-Sepharose, gel filtration chromatography on Superdex 75, and reverse-phase HPLC. The purified lectin yielded a single band on SDS-PAGE that corresponded to a molecular mass of 13 kDa. This lectin exhibited hemagglutinating activity toward rabbit erythrocytes, which could be inhibited by mannose only. The lectin was digested with trypsin and its digests were analyzed using MALDI-TOF/TOF. Partial amino acid sequences were obtained from tandem mass spectra via automatedde novo sequencing, and were then identified by MS-BLAST homology searches to enable recognition of related proteins in other species. Inferred peptide sequences exhibited similarity to a mannose-binding lectin fromEpipactis helleborine, a member of the Orchidaceae.     

Influence of rest and exercise at a simulated altitude of 4,000 m on appetite, energy intake, and plasma concentrations of acylated ghrelin and peptide YY

The reason for high altitude anorexia is unclear but could involve alterations in the appetite hormones ghrelin and peptide YY (PYY). This study examined the effect of resting and exercising in hypoxia (12.7% O(2); ～4,000 m) on appetite, energy intake, and plasma concentrations of acylated ghrelin and PYY. Ten healthy males completed four, 7-h trials in an environmental chamber in a random order. The four trials were control-normoxia, control-hypoxia, exercise-normoxia, and exercise-hypoxia. During exercise trials, participants ran for 60 min at 70% of altitude-specific maximal oxygen consumption (Vo(2max)) and then rested. Participants rested throughout control trials. A standardized meal was consumed at 2 h and an ad libitum buffet meal at 5.5 h. Area under the curve values for hunger (assessed using visual analog scales) tended to be lower during hypoxic trials than normoxic trials (repeated-measures ANOVA, P = 0.07). Ad libitum energy intake was lower (P = 0.001) in hypoxia (5,291 ± 2,189 kJ) than normoxia (7,718 ± 2,356 kJ; means ± SD). Mean plasma acylated ghrelin concentrations were lower in hypoxia than normoxia (82 ± 66 vs. 100 ± 69 pg/ml; P = 0.005) while PYY concentrations tended to be higher in normoxia (32 ± 4 vs. 30 ± 3 pmol/l; P = 0.059). Exercise suppressed hunger and acylated ghrelin and increased PYY but did not influence ad libitum energy intake. These findings confirm that hypoxia suppresses hunger and food intake. Further research is required to determine if decreased concentrations of acylated ghrelin orchestrate this suppression.     

Light Intensity Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior in Relation to Body Mass Index and Grip Strength in Older Adults: Cross-Sectional Findings from the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) Study

BackgroundIdentifying modifiable determinants of fat mass and muscle strength in older adults is important given their impact on physical functioning and health. Light intensity physical activity and sedentary behavior are potential determinants, but their relations to these outcomes are poorly understood. We evaluated associations of light intensity physical activity and sedentary time—assessed both objectively and by self-report—with body mass index (BMI) and grip strength in a large sample of older adults.MethodsWe used cross-sectional baseline data from 1130 participants of the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) study, a community-dwelling sample of relatively sedentary older adults (70-89 years) at heightened risk of mobility disability. Time spent sedentary and in light intensity activity were assessed using an accelerometer worn for 3–7 days (Actigraph GT3X) and by self-report. Associations between these exposures and measured BMI and grip strength were evaluated using linear regression.ResultsGreater time spent in light intensity activity and lower sedentary times were both associated with lower BMI. This was evident using objective measures of lower-light intensity, and both objective and self-reported measures of higher-light intensity activity. Time spent watching television was positively associated with BMI, while reading and computer use were not. Greater time spent in higher but not lower intensities of light activity (assessed objectively) was associated with greater grip strength in men but not women, while neither objectively assessed nor self-reported sedentary time was associated with grip strength.ConclusionsIn this cross-sectional study, greater time spent in light intensity activity and lower sedentary times were associated with lower BMI. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that replacing sedentary activities with light intensity activities could lead to lower BMI levels and obesity prevalence among the population of older adults. However, longitudinal and experimental studies are needed to strengthen causal inferences.     

The Sex Determination Gene transformer Regulates Male-Female Differences in Drosophila Body Size

Almost all animals show sex differences in body size. For example, in Drosophila, females are larger than males. Although Drosophila is widely used as a model to study growth, the mechanisms underlying this male-female difference in size remain unclear. Here, we describe a novel role for the sex determination gene transformer (tra) in promoting female body growth. Normally, Tra is expressed only in females. We find that loss of Tra in female larvae decreases body size, while ectopic Tra expression in males increases body size. Although we find that Tra exerts autonomous effects on cell size, we also discovered that Tra expression in the fat body augments female body size in a non cell-autonomous manner. These effects of Tra do not require its only known targets doublesex and fruitless. Instead, Tra expression in the female fat body promotes growth by stimulating the secretion of insulin-like peptides from insulin producing cells in the brain. Our data suggest a model of sex-specific growth in which body size is regulated by a previously unrecognized branch of the sex determination pathway, and identify Tra as a novel link between sex and the conserved insulin signaling pathway.     

Prion protein expression differences in microglia and astroglia influence scrapie-induced neurodegeneration in the retina and brain of transgenic mice

Activated microglia and astroglia are known to be involved in a variety of neurodegenerative diseases, including prion diseases. In the present experiments, we studied activation of astroglia and microglia after intraocular scrapie infection in transgenic mice expressing prion protein (PrP) in multiple cell types (tg7 mice) or in neurons only (tgNSE mice). In this model, scrapie infection and protease-resistant PrP deposition occurs in the retinas of both strains of mice, but retinal degeneration is observed only in tg7 mice. Our results showed that the retinas of tg7 and tgNSE mice both had astroglial activation with increased chemokine expression during the course of infection. However, only tg7 retinas exhibited strong microglial activation compared to tgNSE retinas, which showed little microglial activation by biochemical or morphological criteria. Therefore, microglial PrP expression might be required for scrapie-induced retinal microglial activation and damage. Furthermore, microglial activation preceded retinal neurodegeneration in tg7 mice, suggesting that activated microglia might contribute to the degenerative process, rather than being a response to the damage. Surprisingly, brain differed from retina in that an altered profile of microglial activation markers was upregulated, and the profiles in the two mouse strains were indistinguishable. Microglial activation in the brain was associated with severe brain vacuolation and neurodegeneration, leading to death. Thus, retinal and brain microglia appeared to differ in their requirements for activation, suggesting that different activation pathways occur in the two tissues.     

A primary assembly of a bovine haplotype block map based on a 15,036-single-nucleotide polymorphism panel genotyped in holstein-friesian cattle

Analysis of data on 1000 Holstein-Friesian bulls genotyped for 15,036 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) has enabled genomewide identification of haplotype blocks and tag SNPs. A final subset of 9195 SNPs in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and mapped on autosomes on the bovine sequence assembly (release Btau 3.1) was used in this study. The average intermarker spacing was 251.8 kb. The average minor allele frequency (MAF) was 0.29 (0.05-0.5). Following recent precedents in human HapMap studies, a haplotype block was defined where 95% of combinations of SNPs within a region are in very high linkage disequilibrium. A total of 727 haplotype blocks consisting of > or =3 SNPs were identified. The average block length was 69.7 +/- 7.7 kb, which is approximately 5-10 times larger than in humans. These blocks comprised a total of 2964 SNPs and covered 50,638 kb of the sequence map, which constitutes 2.18% of the length of all autosomes. A set of tag SNPs, which will be useful for further fine-mapping studies, has been identified. Overall, the results suggest that as many as 75,000-100,000 tag SNPs would be needed to track all important haplotype blocks in the bovine genome. This would require approximately 250,000 SNPs in the discovery phase.