Validation of discrete time-to-event prediction models in the presence of competing risks

Clinical prediction models play a key role in risk stratification, therapy assignment and many other fields of medical decision making. Before they can enter clinical practice, their usefulness has to be demonstrated using systematic validation. Methods to assess their predictive performance have been proposed for continuous, binary, and time-to-event outcomes, but the literature on validation methods for discrete time-to-event models with competing risks is sparse. The present paper tries to fill this gap and proposes new methodology to quantify discrimination, calibration, and prediction error (PE) for discrete time-to-event outcomes in the presence of competing risks. In our case study, the goal was to predict the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) attributed to Pseudomonas aeruginosa in intensive care units (ICUs). Competing events are extubation, death, and VAP due to other bacteria. The aim of this application is to validate complex prediction models developed in previous work on more recently available validation data.     

Diversity and composition of macroinvertebrate communities in a rare inland salt marsh

Inland salt marshes are rare habitats in the Great Lakes region of North America, formed on salt deposits from the Silurian period. These patchy habitats are abiotically stressful for the freshwater invertebrates that live there, and provide an opportunity to study the relationship between stress and diversity. We used morphological and COI metabarcoding data to assess changes in diversity and composition across both space (a transect from the salt seep to an adjacent freshwater area) and time (three sampling seasons). Richness was significantly lower at the seep site with both datatypes, while metabarcoding data additionally showed reduced richness at the freshwater transect end, consistent with a pattern where intermediate levels of stress show higher diversity. We found complementary, rather than redundant, patterns of community composition using the two datatypes: not all taxa were equally sequenced with the metabarcoding protocol. We identified taxa that are abundant at the salt seep of the marsh, including biting midges (Culicoides) and ostracods (Heterocypris). We conclude that (as found in other studies) molecular and morphological work should be used in tandem to identify the biodiversity in this rare habitat. Additionally, salinity may be a driver of community membership in this system, though further ecological research is needed to rule out alternate hypotheses.     

Trophic network models explain instability of Early Triassic terrestrial communities

Studies of the end-Permian mass extinction have emphasized potential abiotic causes and their direct biotic effects. Less attention has been devoted to secondary extinctions resulting from ecological crises and the effect of community structure on such extinctions. Here we use a trophic network model that combines topological and dynamic approaches to simulate disruptions of primary productivity in palaeocommunities. We apply the model to Permian and Triassic communities of the Karoo Basin, South Africa, and show that while Permian communities bear no evidence of being especially susceptible to extinction, Early Triassic communities appear to have been inherently less stable. Much of the instability results from the faster post-extinction diversification of amphibian guilds relative to amniotes. The resulting communities differed fundamentally in structure from their Permian predecessors. Additionally, our results imply that changing community structures over time may explain long-term trends like declining rates of Phanerozoic background extinction.     

Light Intensity Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior in Relation to Body Mass Index and Grip Strength in Older Adults: Cross-Sectional Findings from the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) Study

BackgroundIdentifying modifiable determinants of fat mass and muscle strength in older adults is important given their impact on physical functioning and health. Light intensity physical activity and sedentary behavior are potential determinants, but their relations to these outcomes are poorly understood. We evaluated associations of light intensity physical activity and sedentary time—assessed both objectively and by self-report—with body mass index (BMI) and grip strength in a large sample of older adults.MethodsWe used cross-sectional baseline data from 1130 participants of the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) study, a community-dwelling sample of relatively sedentary older adults (70-89 years) at heightened risk of mobility disability. Time spent sedentary and in light intensity activity were assessed using an accelerometer worn for 3–7 days (Actigraph GT3X) and by self-report. Associations between these exposures and measured BMI and grip strength were evaluated using linear regression.ResultsGreater time spent in light intensity activity and lower sedentary times were both associated with lower BMI. This was evident using objective measures of lower-light intensity, and both objective and self-reported measures of higher-light intensity activity. Time spent watching television was positively associated with BMI, while reading and computer use were not. Greater time spent in higher but not lower intensities of light activity (assessed objectively) was associated with greater grip strength in men but not women, while neither objectively assessed nor self-reported sedentary time was associated with grip strength.ConclusionsIn this cross-sectional study, greater time spent in light intensity activity and lower sedentary times were associated with lower BMI. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that replacing sedentary activities with light intensity activities could lead to lower BMI levels and obesity prevalence among the population of older adults. However, longitudinal and experimental studies are needed to strengthen causal inferences.     

Prion protein expression differences in microglia and astroglia influence scrapie-induced neurodegeneration in the retina and brain of transgenic mice

Activated microglia and astroglia are known to be involved in a variety of neurodegenerative diseases, including prion diseases. In the present experiments, we studied activation of astroglia and microglia after intraocular scrapie infection in transgenic mice expressing prion protein (PrP) in multiple cell types (tg7 mice) or in neurons only (tgNSE mice). In this model, scrapie infection and protease-resistant PrP deposition occurs in the retinas of both strains of mice, but retinal degeneration is observed only in tg7 mice. Our results showed that the retinas of tg7 and tgNSE mice both had astroglial activation with increased chemokine expression during the course of infection. However, only tg7 retinas exhibited strong microglial activation compared to tgNSE retinas, which showed little microglial activation by biochemical or morphological criteria. Therefore, microglial PrP expression might be required for scrapie-induced retinal microglial activation and damage. Furthermore, microglial activation preceded retinal neurodegeneration in tg7 mice, suggesting that activated microglia might contribute to the degenerative process, rather than being a response to the damage. Surprisingly, brain differed from retina in that an altered profile of microglial activation markers was upregulated, and the profiles in the two mouse strains were indistinguishable. Microglial activation in the brain was associated with severe brain vacuolation and neurodegeneration, leading to death. Thus, retinal and brain microglia appeared to differ in their requirements for activation, suggesting that different activation pathways occur in the two tissues.     

A primary assembly of a bovine haplotype block map based on a 15,036-single-nucleotide polymorphism panel genotyped in holstein-friesian cattle

Analysis of data on 1000 Holstein-Friesian bulls genotyped for 15,036 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) has enabled genomewide identification of haplotype blocks and tag SNPs. A final subset of 9195 SNPs in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and mapped on autosomes on the bovine sequence assembly (release Btau 3.1) was used in this study. The average intermarker spacing was 251.8 kb. The average minor allele frequency (MAF) was 0.29 (0.05-0.5). Following recent precedents in human HapMap studies, a haplotype block was defined where 95% of combinations of SNPs within a region are in very high linkage disequilibrium. A total of 727 haplotype blocks consisting of > or =3 SNPs were identified. The average block length was 69.7 +/- 7.7 kb, which is approximately 5-10 times larger than in humans. These blocks comprised a total of 2964 SNPs and covered 50,638 kb of the sequence map, which constitutes 2.18% of the length of all autosomes. A set of tag SNPs, which will be useful for further fine-mapping studies, has been identified. Overall, the results suggest that as many as 75,000-100,000 tag SNPs would be needed to track all important haplotype blocks in the bovine genome. This would require approximately 250,000 SNPs in the discovery phase.     

Insights into molecular interactions between CaM and its inhibitors from molecular dynamics simulations and experimental data

In order to contribute to the structural basis for rational design of calmodulin (CaM) inhibitors, we analyzed the interaction of CaM with 14 classic antagonists and two compounds that do not affect CaM, using docking and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and the data were compared to available experimental data. The Ca²⁺-CaM-Ligands complexes were simulated 20 ns, with CaM starting in the “open” and “closed” conformations. The analysis of the MD simulations provided insight into the conformational changes undergone by CaM during its interaction with these ligands. These simulations were used to predict the binding free energies (ΔG) from contributions ΔH and ΔS, giving useful information about CaM ligand binding thermodynamics. The ΔG predicted for the CaM’s inhibitors correlated well with available experimental data as the r² obtained was 0.76 and 0.82 for the group of xanthones. Additionally, valuable information is presented here: I) CaM has two preferred ligand binding sites in the open conformation known as site 1 and 4, II) CaM can bind ligands of diverse structural nature, III) the flexibility of CaM is reduced by the union of its ligands, leading to a reduction in the Ca²⁺-CaM entropy, IV) enthalpy dominates the molecular recognition process in the system Ca²⁺-CaM-Ligand, and V) the ligands making more extensive contact with the protein have higher affinity for Ca²⁺-CaM. Despite their limitations, docking and MD simulations in combination with experimental data continue to be excellent tools for research in pharmacology, toward a rational design of new drugs.     

Exploring trophic niches and parasite communities of sympatric Arctic charr and brown trout populations of southern Norway

Hydrobiologia - Catchment-scale variation between lake habitats has the potential to simultaneously influence the trophic niche and parasite community of fish hosts. In this study, we investigated...