Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006–2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.     

The Genetic Structure and Evolutionary Fate of Parthenogenetic Amphibian Populations as Determined by Markovian Analysis

SYNOPSIS. One-locus, two-allele models are presented which describethe genetic consequences of naturally occurring andexperimentallyinduced parthenogesis in triploid and diploid amphibians. Themodels may in general be used to investigate genetic changeresulting from apomictic (ameiotic) and automictic (meiotic)parthenogenetic reproduction. These models quantify the influence of mutation, segregation,and selection upon genetic variability in parthenogeneticpopulations.They also allow an estimate of the relative importance of stochasticforces in altering this variability. They thus provide a basisfor understanding evolution in these populations. Some of the conclusions derived from this study contradict previouspredictions regarding genetic variability in parthenogeneticpopulations. First, if mutation is the sole source of geneticchange (i.e., strict apomixis), parthenogenetic populationsshould not become completely heterozygous. Second, small amountsof segregation occurring in apomictic populations have enormouseffects upon the genetic variability of these populations, i.e.,they should lose much of their heterozygosity. In addition to these conclusions, the results of this studysuggest that studies of protein variability in parthenogeneticspecies should contribute toward answering the question: Howmuch of the genetic variability observed in nature is evolutionarilyrelevant?     

Dating of graptolite zones by sedimentation rates: implications for rates of evolution

Preliminary determinations of ancient pelagic sedimentation rates agree with modern rates at about 4 meters per million years. By combining data on the thickness of graptolite zones from the North American Cordillera with data from other parts of the world, we have refined the Early Silurian time scale and obtained much better resolution than is possible for radiometric dates. The new Early Silurian time scale allows estimation of true rates of change in graptolite diversity. The Llandoverian diversity explosion is twice as rapid as was previously thought. The brevity of diversity lows and rapidity of speciation support modern theories of quantum evolution.     

In-depth qualitative and quantitative analysis of composite glycosylation profiles and other micro-heterogeneity on intact monoclonal antibodies by high-resolution native mass spectrometry using a modified Orbitrap

Here, we describe a fast, easy-to-use, and sensitive method to profile in-depth structural micro-heterogeneity, including intricate N-glycosylation profiles, of monoclonal antibodies at the native intact protein level by means of mass spectrometry using a recently introduced modified Orbitrap Exactive Plus mass spectrometer. We demonstrate the versatility of our method to probe structural micro-heterogeneity by describing the analysis of three types of molecules: (1) a non-covalently bound IgG4 hinge deleted full-antibody in equilibrium with its half-antibody, (2) IgG4 mutants exhibiting highly complex glycosylation profiles, and (3) antibody-drug conjugates. Using the modified instrument, we obtain baseline separation and accurate mass determination of all different proteoforms that may be induced, for example, by glycosylation, drug loading and partial peptide backbone-truncation. We show that our method can handle highly complex glycosylation profiles, identifying more than 20 different glycoforms per monoclonal antibody preparation and more than 30 proteoforms on a single highly purified antibody. In analyzing antibody-drug conjugates, our method also easily identifies and quantifies more than 15 structurally different proteoforms that may result from the collective differences in drug loading and glycosylation. The method presented here will aid in the comprehensive analytical and functional characterization of protein micro-heterogeneity, which is crucial for successful development and manufacturing of therapeutic antibodies     

Parthenogenetic development of dwarf surf dam,Mulinia lateralis,oocytes treated with polar body suppressing agents

Summary

Parthenogenesis following oocyte activation has been observed in a number of marine invertebrates, but the fate of parthenogenesis in bivalve mollusc embryos is unclear. We used the dwarf surf clam, Mulinia lateralis, to examine parthenogenetic development of KC1-activated oocytes using the polar body suppressing agents caffeine and heat or cytochalasin B. Development was followed by epifluorescence microscopy and flow-cytometric analysis using the DNA-specific fluorochrome DAPI. All agents suppressed polar body formation to some degree, putatively increasing the ploidy level and retaining a meiotic centrosome in the zygote; but the zygotes failed to develop normally. Failure of the zygotes to develop suggests that the meiotic centrosome is incapable of participating in mitosis in bivalves.